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I'm not sure the South will see another NFL team anytime soon. But for fun, let's examine the possibilities. For clarity, let's use the Census definition of the South, so we don't get in some stupid shouting match about what is or isn't Southern.
Southern TV markets with teams:
overall rank - market (# of tv homes) team
#5 - Dallas-Fort Worth (2,594,630) Cowboys
#8 - Atlanta (2,407,080) Falcons
#9 - Washington DC (2,389,710) Redskins (census definition, mind you...)
#10 - Houston (2,177,220) Texans
#14 - Tampa-St. Petersburg (1,795,200) Buccaneers
#16 - Miami-Fort Lauderdale (1,580,580) Dolphins
#23 - Charlotte (1,166,180) Panthers
#26 - Baltimore (1,108,360) Ravens (census definition, mind you...)
#29 - Nashville (1,039,430) Titans
#49 - Jacksonville (678,430) Jaguars*
#52 - New Orleans (635,860) Saints
*this is the team that many people assume will be relocating
The cutoff of the largest markets without a team will be only markets that are larger than the current smallest Southern NFL market (New Orleans)
Okay, so we have a list of 12 potential suitors. Let's examine them more closely.
Orlando - the current largest market without an NFL team. The only other major pro sports team in the market is the Orlando Magic (NBA). Orlando is definitely big enough in terms of size to support multiple pro sports franchises....but would they? It's a major tourist town...but that doesn't necessarily mean that it can't support pro sports (although I've seen that argument used on Vegas many times).
Pure size is the best thing going for Orlando.
Proximity to another NFL team (Tampa is ~85 miles away) is the biggest drawback.
Raleigh-Durham - obviously a very large TV market, but not centralized (multiple large population centers -- including Fayetteville, I believe). The Carolina Hurricanes (NHL) are the other major pro sports team in this market.
Again, size is the biggest thing going for this market...
But the biggest drawbacks would be that the population is very spread out, and there is already another NFL team in the state (Panthers in Charlotte ~140 miles away)...though not nearly as close as Tampa/Orlando.
Greenville-Asheville - lots of people live in the market...but the cities themselves are rather small. This one really isn't feasible in any way, regardless of the fact that they have no other pro sports teams.
San Antonio/Austin - these markets are quite close (~80 miles), so conceivably they could feed off of one another. Combined, they are nearly the size of the Miami market, and only have one pro sports team (Spurs - NBA). Austin is obviously college obsessed with the Univ. of Texas in town...but the size of the market + San Antonio's proximity would likely make it feasible. The only real potential problem I see is whether local fan loyalties are already tied up with the other Texas NFL teams...the Cowboys and the Texans. It would be very hard to recruit fans when there are already teams in your state...the other two states with 3 NFL teams are California and Florida.
West Palm Beach - decent sized market....relatively dense population...but already solidly in Dolphins territory. It would simply be too close for a second team.
Birmingham - Birmingham is an interesting choice, for a few reasons. First of all, there are zero major pro sports teams in Birmingham...or Alabama as a state. The closest pro sports markets (Atlanta and Nashville - ~145 and ~190 miles away, respectively) are far enough away where the market could work. Secondly, considering its place in Southern history, it seems like Birmingham (and Alabama) should have a pro sports team (outside of the Auburn Tigers, of course). The only potential setback I see would be Birmingham (as a city/metro) is on the much smaller side of NFL markets, and the city is college sports crazy (between Alabama and Auburn).
Norfolk (Tidewater) - a collection of decent sized cities in the largest state without a major pro sports team. Despite it's population, this area is sort of "off the beaten path" in terms of location (not along a major east/west or north/south route) Also a region that, for its size, seems to not get the recognition/exposure you would think of. That's what makes me wonder if this would really work. Is area even sports crazy?
Oklahoma City - good sized town with a growing population...already one pro sports team (Thunder - NBA)...are they big enough to support a second? Aside from that...the big football team in the region will always be the Oklahoma Sooners, which are a short trip away in Norman.
Greensboro-High Point - LMAO
Memphis - already has one pro sports team (Grizzlies - NBA) and an NFL team in-state (Titans in Nashville)...but the Titans are more than 200 miles away (plenty of buffer), and despite its market size, Memphis could potentially draw off of fans in neighboring states Mississippi and Arkansas. The big problem is much like Oklahoma City's...there's already one pro team...are they big enough to support two? Possibly...
Louisville - like Birmingham, Louisville is a historically important Southern city with no pro sports teams in the city or the state (outside of Univ of Kentucky basketball). I'm pretty sure size is not the issue....Louisville as a city/metro is large enough to support a pro team...one of the questions would be "are they willing"...the other would be are they too close to Cincinnati and the Bengals (~105 miles) and Indianapolis and the Colts (~115 miles), not to mention the Titans in Nashville (~175 miles), who probably have some of the southern Kentucky markets locked up.
To me, the one that would make the most sense is San Antonio. Thoughts?
Wow great analysis. In the end I totally agree with your conclusion too. I think that San Antonio is by FAR the most likely of the southern cities to receive an NFL franchise. I think that within the next ten years there will be only one city receiving an NFL team, and it won't be a city in the south. A team that currently exists will be moving to LA. After that happens I don't think anything will happen for awhile.
I think that the NFL is happy (and more importantly the owners) with the current alignment of a 32 team NFL, so I don't see that changing. But there are some teams that may be moved.
Today I think that San Antonio is the most likely location... but I still think it isn't at all likely though. In ten years though? The case to have a team in San Antonio is just going to grow bigger and bigger as the years pass. As the density between San Antonio and Austin continues to grow, that will just end up being such a huge mass of population, I have no doubt that it would support an NFL team.
I know people in San Antonio already support other teams and I'm sure some people will stick with their original teams. But there will be enough people living there that there will still be more than enough people to support a new team and as the years go on it's strength will just grow larger.
I think hampton roads va (norfolk, va beach, etc) could definitley support a nfl team, if you add another major highway to the area then yeah its gonna be a prime location with all that is has to offer. The traffic there now is horrible so another roadway is needed. Birmingham could support an nfl team as well!
Every game might be sold out. But have you been to one? It definitely isn't filled up and their fans are pretty lousy honestly. Go to a Dallas, Ravens, Philly, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis, etc game... then go to a Falcons game. It's PATHETIC. The few times I went there, their fans leave out early, and the opposing team's fan is usually louder. The biggest game at the Georgia Dome is the SEC Championship, followed by the Peach Bowl, quite easily.
Wow. As a 4th year Falcons' season ticket holder, I'd have to say you were not in the Georgia Dome I've been in.
While I can't compare it to the other stadiums, I can state that some of those comments are indisputably false.
Great analysis by Nashvols. Really, there doesn't seem to be any team in the South that is crying out for a team. The biggest Southern cities w/o teams already have in-state teams thare are fairly close by. To me, San Antonion and Oklahoma City, along with distant possibility Birmingham are the only ones that make much sense. And even those don't have a great case.
Basically the market is about where it should be. The biggest southern cities already have teams and those that don't are pretty close to ones that do.
LA needs to get a team, period. Beyond that Virginia all the way. Whoever said Norfolk is Redskins territory needs to reassess their self worth. By all means, Hampton Roads is the no mans land for the NFL, with the majority leaning towards the Redskins, Panthers, and Cowboys (they're everywhere folks). If a VA team would come that would all come to a screeching halt. Unlike some of the other places there is no competition with any other big college teams OR large following to any one specific NFL team.
I don't know what team to get but any is better than none. Vikings? Jaguars?...even the Bills?
No they aren't. I was born and raised in Maryland and the census is correct to place DC in the south. The history and roots behind DC are more important than the overrun culture transplants have brought here. The only reason DC seems more aligned to the Northeast is because its overrun by transplants, by that quota Tampa is no longer southern and LA is no longer western
Me think that during the civil war " The Headquarters of the Northern United States was and still is Headquartered in Washington DC " making it a part of the North (1861-1865) and at the present time 2011.
Nobody in the southern United States of America is at this time building a NFL type of Stadium to " interest a NFL Team Interested In Moving " to a new location or new Metro Area.
LA needs to get a team, period. Beyond that Virginia all the way. Whoever said Norfolk is Redskins territory needs to reassess their self worth. By all means, Hampton Roads is the no mans land for the NFL, with the majority leaning towards the Redskins, Panthers, and Cowboys (they're everywhere folks). If a VA team would come that would all come to a screeching halt. Unlike some of the other places there is no competition with any other big college teams OR large following to any one specific NFL team.
I don't know what team to get but any is better than none. Vikings? Jaguars?...even the Bills?
Los Angeles is getting a NFL Team and it's coming to the LA LIVE AREA of downtown Los Angeles where the STAPLES CENTER is located.
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