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I dunno if you can call the Bay clearly ahead of the rest.
For one there are more people in Boston than the Bay so Boston is already ahead of the Bay although it has been growing slightly slower.
Secondly, DFW should be around 7M right now in its CSA with the Bay being probably just making it to 7.5M. So the Bay is closer to DFW and Boston than it is to DC and Chicago. No use grouping the Bay with Chicago and DC when it clearly is in Boston and DFW's territory too.
If the Census was to release an update today you would find that the CSA's would be close to this:
In terms of economics, the Bay is pulling strongly, but on population. It is probably should not be considered in the same sentence as ATL and Detroit. BTW where is ATL getting all these votes? from all the cities listed it probably has slowed down the most. Don't see it reaching Chicago in 75 years.
Did Houston somehow add 300K people in 9 months or DFW add 300K in 9 months. Or did Philly just add only 10K?
Hmmm
Anyway final alignments are not in for CSA or MSA for that matter; this assumes no changes in counties anywhere
Just calculated 2009 commuter data based on this link http://www.selectgreaterphiladelphia...employment.cfm and Lehigh County would be at 15.6% commuter rate into the Philly MSA and Atlantic county at 14.8% into the Philly MSA. Adding the A/B MSA to the Philly CSA would add 820K to the CSA to 7.4 million and if AC came on it would take it to 7.8 million all without Mercer county etc. Didnt realize how much the Lehigh county rates have increased, especially into the job centers in Montgomery county PA. Guess time will tell
I agree DFW CSA should be at 7 million or just alittle over around 7.2 million. Houston is about right.
7.3 is kinda high for DFW.
that would men 500K in 2 years. that is a bit much.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
Did Houston somehow add 300K people in 9 months or DFW add 300K in 9 months. Or did Philly just add only 10K?
Hmmm
Slap yourself. The census was taken April 1st of 2010. we are in 2012. If that is 9 months then you have been out of grade school too long and need a new dose.
It has been 21 months since the last count NOT 9. you overreact too quickly without thinking things out.
Yes the 14K a month for those two cities are more than feasible. In fact the last few years before the census had Houston pulling more than 17K a month
I'm not sure about the exact phrasing of the question. Chicago is by far the largest metro of the options, but it also has a slower growth rate than many of the other metros. Even with the lower growth rate I think it will be quite a while before any of the other metros catch Chicago. So Chicago will remain the largest for a while, but several other cities are gaining on it. I think the OP wants to know which of these areas will see the most growth relative to its current size and standing in the US.
With that in mind, of the areas listed, I think Houston will grow the most population-wise over the near term.
As for which of these choices will see its "influence", "prestige", or economy grow the most, I am having trouble deciding between DC and Houston. Houston has been booming for years and years, and its position as the energy capitol will continue to feed its growth. DC has really come into its own in the last 15 years. It's population growth will not be as high, but I think economic and itellectual capital will continue to accumulate in that region thanks to its role in the government and also b/c the city seems to have now hit the minimum critical mass to be a "real" world class city.
IMO, Dallas and (to a lesser extent) Atlanta will also have signficant increases in both population and economic power compared to the other cities, but not at the same level as DC and Houston.
7.3 is kinda high for DFW.
that would men 500K in 2 years. that is a bit much.
Slap yourself. The census was taken April 1st of 2010. we are in 2012. If that is 9 months then you have been out of grade school too long and need a new dose.
It has been 21 months since the last count NOT 9. you overreact too quickly without thinking things out.
Yes the 14K a month for those two cities are more than feasible. In fact the last few years before the census had Houston pulling more than 17K a month
Did Houston somehow add 300K people in 9 months or DFW add 300K in 9 months. Or did Philly just add only 10K?
Hmmm
Anyway final alignments are not in for CSA or MSA for that matter; this assumes no changes in counties anywhere
Just calculated 2009 commuter data based on this link Greater Philadelphia Offers a Highly Skilled Workforce and Lehigh County would be at 15.6% commuter rate into the Philly MSA and Atlantic county at 14.8% into the Philly MSA. Adding the A/B MSA to the Philly CSA would add 820K to the CSA to 7.4 million and if AC came on it would take it to 7.8 million all without Mercer county etc. Didnt realize how much the Lehigh county rates have increased, especially into the job centers in Montgomery county PA. Guess time will tell
I'm not sure about the exact phrasing of the question. Chicago is by far the largest metro of the options, but it also has a slower growth rate than many of the other metros. Even with the lower growth rate I think it will be quite a while before any of the other metros catch Chicago. So Chicago will remain the largest for a while, but several other cities are gaining on it. I think the OP wants to know which of these areas will see the most growth relative to its current size and standing in the US.
With that in mind, of the areas listed, I think Houston will grow the most population-wise over the near term.
As for which of these choices will see its "influence", "prestige", or economy grow the most, I am having trouble deciding between DC and Houston. Houston has been booming for years and years, and its position as the energy capitol will continue to feed its growth. DC has really come into its own in the last 15 years. It's population growth will not be as high, but I think economic and itellectual capital will continue to accumulate in that region thanks to its role in the government and also b/c the city seems to have now hit the minimum critical mass to be a "real" world class city.
IMO, Dallas and (to a lesser extent) Atlanta will also have signficant increases in both population and economic power compared to the other cities, but not at the same level as DC and Houston.
DFW is on the level of Houston not DC
Atlanta is well below DFW and Houston in this regard
lol, but everyone knew the census data was stale the very day it came out..
as for the realignments that is gonna be another big disappointment because it is gonna involve even older data.
Since the census I have received two questionnaires from ACS, have not seen any data tho, so dunno what they are doing with it. Confused that they are still sending out questionnaires because I heard they are not updating until 2015.
don't see any significant changes to my metro tho. I think the only thing that may happen is that Montgomery may become a central county which would move Huntsville from the CSA to the MSA. Beaumont, Lufkin, Nacogdoches and College Station still won't meet the requirements for CSA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
Actually just also saw that Kent County DE is now over 20% into the Philly MSA which adds another 160K to the CSA
to be added it must meet requirements to a central county not just any county.
My post was giving my guess for how the change in the current statures of the cities will go in the next several years.
Houston and DC will be the strongest performers, then Dallas, then Atlanta.
Ahh gotcha I think DFW will perfrom closer to houston. Atlanta was the biggest laggard among these over the last ten years and maybe hit the hardest recently.
Atlanta grew economic output .03 since 2000 based on adjustments for inflation and population growth; actually pretty dismal when you consider these stats
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
Adjusted for Inflation relative to population growth
Growth rate difference between GDP growth and Population Growth, 2000-2010 Inflation Adjusted
Boston 7.89
Philadelphia 5.94
Chicago 5.89
San Francisco 5.22
Miami 3.73
Washington DC 3.19
Seattle 2.62
Houston 1.85 (Would be interesting if construction were removed)
Dallas 1.58 (Would be interesting if construction were factored in)
Atlanta 1.03 (Very scary if construction were factored in)
So among the fast growers Miami looked to perform best actually
lol, but everyone knew the census data was stale the very day it came out..
as for the realignments that is gonna be another big disappointment because it is gonna involve even older data.
Since the census I have received two questionnaires from ACS, have not seen any data tho, so dunno what they are doing with it. Confused that they are still sending out questionnaires because I heard they are not updating until 2015.
don't see any significant changes to my metro tho. I think the only thing that may happen is that Montgomery may become a central county which would move Huntsville from the CSA to the MSA. Beaumont, Lufkin, Nacogdoches and College Station still won't meet the requirements for CSA.
to be added it must meet requirements to a central county not just any county.
The data I had for commuter rates was from 2009 so not sure what exactley gets used
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on population. It is probably should not be considered in the same sentence as ATL and Detroit. BTW where is ATL getting all these votes? from all the cities listed it probably has slowed down the most. Don't see it reaching Chicago in 75 years.
you overreact too quickly without thinking things out.