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Here is a very interesting top 10 ranking for most apartments being delivered in 2014. There are some surprising omissions from the top 10 that may surprise you. The data comes from Marcus/Millichap Real Estate Investment Services (Institutional Property Advisors) Marcus & Millichap Multifamily Forum DC
1. Dallas = 19,000 units
2. Washington D.C. = 18,000 units
3. Austin = 11,500 units
4. Houston = 10,900 units
5. Denver = 9,600 units
6. New York = 8,800 units
7. Seattle = 8,100 units
8. Atlanta = 6,300 units
9. Los Angeles = 6,000 units
10. Orlando = 5,700 units
Certainly this is consistent with the amount of construction sites in DC. Also pretty shocking that it is significantly ahead of areas like New York and Houston, which are assuredly growing in larger raw numbers.
I understand DC is doing pretty well now growth wise, but I'd still be concerned if I were a developer. That is a TON of units to be delivered in one year and have the potential to greatly over-saturate the market.
There are some curious things about these numbers when you compare them with 2013 multifamily housing starts (which, to be fair, include condominiums).
1. Dallas = 19,000 units 16,500 MFH units 2013
2. Washington D.C. = 18,000 units 10,800 MFH units 2013
3. Austin = 11,500 units 11,500 MFH units 2013
4. Houston = 10,900 units 16,800 MFH units 2013
5. Denver = 9,600 units 8,000 MFH units 2013
6. New York = 8,800 units 27,700 MFH units 2013
7. Seattle = 8,100 units 10,000 MFH units 2013
8. Atlanta = 6,300 units 9,200 MFH units 2013
9. Los Angeles = 6,000 units 15,500 MFH units 2013
10. Orlando = 5,700 units 5,300 MFH units 2013
These numbers seem way bullish for Dallas, Denver, and DC, compared with 2013 actual MFH numbers.
The numbers seem more or less okay for Atlanta, Seattle, Orlando, and Austin.
The numbers seem way bearish for Los Angeles, Houston, and New York.
I mean, things will vary from 2013 (actual) to 2014 (predicted), but in certain cases like Dallas and Houston which are pretty apples-to-apples it just doesn't make sense to expect that much variance.
The census numbers seem like a better guide of current development, frankly.
Here is a very interesting top 10 ranking for most apartments being delivered in 2014. There are some surprising omissions from the top 10 that may surprise you. The data comes from Marcus/Millichap Real Estate Investment Services (Institutional Property Advisors) Marcus & Millichap Multifamily Forum DC
1. Dallas = 19,000 units
2. Washington D.C. = 18,000 units
3. Austin = 11,500 units
4. Houston = 10,900 units
5. Denver = 9,600 units
6. New York = 8,800 units
7. Seattle = 8,100 units
8. Atlanta = 6,300 units
9. Los Angeles = 6,000 units
10. Orlando = 5,700 units
Not sure about the other cities but LA's numbers are way off. I know for a fact there are over 5,000 units coming online in 2014 in downtown LA alone. I assume the amount for the whole city has to be in the 15,000-25,000 range.
There are some curious things about these numbers when you compare them with 2013 multifamily housing starts (which, to be fair, include condominiums).
1. Dallas = 19,000 units 16,500 MFH units 2013
2. Washington D.C. = 18,000 units 10,800 MFH units 2013
3. Austin = 11,500 units 11,500 MFH units 2013
4. Houston = 10,900 units 16,800 MFH units 2013
5. Denver = 9,600 units 8,000 MFH units 2013
6. New York = 8,800 units 27,700 MFH units 2013
7. Seattle = 8,100 units 10,000 MFH units 2013
8. Atlanta = 6,300 units 9,200 MFH units 2013
9. Los Angeles = 6,000 units 15,500 MFH units 2013
10. Orlando = 5,700 units 5,300 MFH units 2013
These numbers seem way bullish for Dallas, Denver, and DC, compared with 2013 actual MFH numbers.
The numbers seem more or less okay for Atlanta, Seattle, Orlando, and Austin.
The numbers seem way bearish for Los Angeles, Houston, and New York.
I mean, things will vary from 2013 (actual) to 2014 (predicted), but in certain cases like Dallas and Houston which are pretty apples-to-apples it just doesn't make sense to expect that much variance.
The census numbers seem like a better guide of current development, frankly.
Construction usually takes two years on large projects so you need to look at 2012 as well.
The Census actually has the exact counts for multifamily.
I believe NYC is first (and by a lot), then Houston, then LA.
The census doesn't count delivery. The census only counts building permits. That doesn't take into account how long a project is under construction nor whether that project even gets finished or stalls during construction.
I also wonder if they're only counting new ground up construction. That would leave out conversion's and renovations. I also wonder if they're only counting Class A buildings. It's not my data so I don't know.
Nationwide supply delivery in 2014 is expected to be 22% higher than demand. The oncoming glut in DC was mentioned as the biggest oversupply for 2014. They're terming DC the "renters market of 2014". Those numbers would seem to explain that rationale.
The Dallas numbers seem very high, although I guess the metro is growing at 100,000 a year or more.
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