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I don't think you can use ancedotal evidence to claim there is a higher frequency in the Northeast. The article does seem a little slanted as well. I found this while searching for some evidence:
Quote:
Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane numbers (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend, which is also correlated with rising SSTs (e.g., see blue curve in Fig. 4 or*Vecchi and Knutson 2008). However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there is a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. But statistical tests reveal that this trend is so small, relative to the variability in the series, that it is*not significantly distinguishable from*zero (Figure 2). In addition,*Landsea et al. (2010)*note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.
Figure 3 (click to enlarge)Figure 4 (click to enlarge)
If we instead consider Atlantic basin hurricanes, rather than all Atlantic tropical storms, the result is similar: the reported numbers of hurricanes were sufficiently high during the 1860s-1880s that again there is no significant positive trend in numbers beginning from that era (Figure 3, black curve, from*CCSP 3.3 (2008)). This is without any adjustment for “missing hurricanes”.
The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s (Figure 3, blue curve). Hurricane landfalling frequency is much less common than basin-wide occurrence, meaning that the U.S. landfalling hurricane record, while more reliable than the basin-wide record, suffers from degraded signal-to-noise characteristics for assessing trends.
Don't think there is any concrete evidence. There is no doubt about climate change though (the Earth isn't static). Coastal cities should definitely be working on battling the effects of that. How much humans contribute to it via CO2 emissions is debatable but theres no doubt it fluctuates greatly all the time.
This Earth can be summed up by saying, the more you learn, the less you know.
People who live in hurricane zones should be required to buy flood insurance similarly to how drivers are required to have auto insurance. I read some that a ridiculously low number of people in Houston have flood insurance (like 15% or something), so of course the government will have to bail everyone out.
(And btw lest anyone thinks I'm picking on Houstonians I feel the exact same way about earthquake insurance here in California.)
You just can't build enough dams/levees/barriers around the entire Gulf and Atlantic.
People who live in hurricane zones should be required to buy flood insurance similarly to how drivers are required to have auto insurance. I read some that a ridiculously low number of people in Houston have flood insurance (like 15% or something), so of course the government will have to bail everyone out.
(And btw lest anyone thinks I'm picking on Houstonians I feel the exact same way about earthquake insurance here in California.)
You just can't build enough dams/levees/barriers around the entire Gulf and Atlantic.
I agree with that fully. I dont live in a flood plain, but I carry flood insurance for sure! Its only $450 a year for me.
I think people fail to realize that the only reason Katrina badly damaged New Orleans, is because the flood control system was inadequate. Hurricane Katrina didn't even make landfall in the State of Louisiana. The damage came from the levees failing and the pump systems failing. New Orleans being below sea level didn't help either.
When Hurricane Harvey made landfall, it was stronger than Katrina. It also produced an unprecedented amount of rain. If any city in America got up to 4 feet of rain, it would be devastated. If Dallas (for example) got that much rain, there's no doubt that the Trinity River would have topped its levees. IMO Harvey was far worse due to the existent of the prolonged rain and higher winds. What happened in New Orleans could have been avoided.
I think people fail to realize that the only reason Katrina badly damaged New Orleans, is because the flood control system was inadequate. Hurricane Katrina didn't even make landfall in the State of Louisiana. The damage came from the levees failing and the pump systems failing. New Orleans being below sea level didn't help either.
When Hurricane Harvey made landfall, it was stronger than Katrina. It also produced an unprecedented amount of rain. If any city in America got up to 4 feet of rain, it would be devastated. If Dallas (for example) got that much rain, there's no doubt that the Trinity River would have topped its levees. IMO Harvey was far worse due to the existent of the prolonged rain and higher winds. What happened in New Orleans could have been avoided.
I think people fail to realize that the only reason Katrina badly damaged New Orleans, is because the flood control system was inadequate. Hurricane Katrina didn't even make landfall in the State of Louisiana. The damage came from the levees failing and the pump systems failing. New Orleans being below sea level didn't help either.
When Hurricane Harvey made landfall, it was stronger than Katrina. It also produced an unprecedented amount of rain. If any city in America got up to 4 feet of rain, it would be devastated. If Dallas (for example) got that much rain, there's no doubt that the Trinity River would have topped its levees. IMO Harvey was far worse due to the existent of the prolonged rain and higher winds. What happened in New Orleans could have been avoided.
Tropical Storm Irma left the coast of Africa last night my time zone (the Cape Verde Islands) and it has gained tremendous momentum. It is now a hurricane and meteorologists state that this thing will definitely be a minimum of a Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches North America. Many meteorologists are saying this thing will be a very intense storm, as strong as or stronger than Harvey by reaching Category 4 or 5 status, its intensification is powerful. The path of Hurricane Irma is yet to be determined as one projected path has it possibly hitting the Northeast but the most likely scenario is that it hits somewhere from North Carolina to Florida, however the determination of its path remains entirely preliminary at this current time. However that path can change as wind conditions shift. The wind speed for Irma has reached 100 miles per hour, which is strong as hell for a hurricane that hasn't even reached halfway across the Atlantic yet, very very strong under those conditions.
The hurricane will enter the North American zone by Monday and it is only intensifying, it became a hurricane not long after leaving Africa last night.
Also, there is another potential storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico at this time, if it reaches the minimum strength threshold to get a name it will be named Tropical Storm/Hurricane Jose and it's preliminary projected path is so far determined to hit the same areas devastated by Harvey. The silverlining to this potential "Jose" is that there is only a 20% chance that it intensifies enough to even become a Tropical Storm, many meteorologists predict it will at most reach Tropical Depression status, if even that, most likely scenario is that it will be a series of scattered showers, but don't take this lightly.
I really do suggest that you folks keep an eye out for these things. This is the 7th most powerful hurricane season in modern American history. The hurricane season runs until October, some dangerous seasons run until December and even January (see 2005).
If you live in the Atlantic or Gulf basins of the United States, do not wait until the last minute to take precautions. Go out and buy enough drinking water (just precautionary measures), have a flashlight, and monitor the situation responsibly. If you own a car, fill the entire tank up as gas stations will likely run out of supply by the time the storm gets to North America.
Irma's location relative to Harvey right now:
Hurricane Irma:
Potential Path:
All the information you need to know:
Quote:
Irma is traveling along the south side of the Bermuda-Azores High, and should slow its 15 mph forward speed as it turns more west-northwest over the next three days.
While it’s too early to decide Irma’s exact path, it’s never too early to be prepared.
“Unlike previous systems that came this route this year, there isn’t much wind shear or dry air in the way of Irma at all,” said Jonathan Erdman, a senior digital meteorologist at Weather.com. “There’s a reason why there’s a peak to the season, because the optimal conditions tend to maximize right around the end of August and into September.”
This is the first time the name Irma is being used in the Atlantic. Irma replaced Irene – a name stricken from the rotating list after the 2011 hurricane season where Hurricane Irene caused devastating inland flooding in New Jersey, Massachusetts and Vermont.
The hurricane center also identified another area of concern Wednesday that could cause more grief to Gulf Coast states, including areas of southeastern Texas where Harvey has dumped 52 inches or rain, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
Hurricane forecasters gave the disturbance that could move off the coast of Mexico and into the southwestern Gulf a 20 percent chance of developing over five days. They said it would be slow to organize and that it’s too early to tell how much rain it could bring.
“Whether, or to what extent, it would affect the Harvey-impacted areas is unknown,” Erdman said. “But it’s something we have to watch for the entire Gulf of Mexico.”
The numbers on Hurricane Irma indicate its strength level category, this looks increasingly likely to be a Category 4 hurricane, which is the third most devastating natural disaster on Earth behind only 1) the subduction zone Megathrust Tsunami and Earthquake and 2) a Category 5 Hurricane.
Also this very recent report on Irma:
Quote:
While the Gulf Coast continues to deal with the devastating impacts of Harvey, emergency managers in the United States have another tropical threat to monitor by the name of Irma.
Far across the Atlantic, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, Irma has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane as of Thursday midday. Irma became a tropical storm at midday on Wednesday.
"There is the potential for Irma to ramp up to a powerful hurricane in the coming days," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"Irma is likely to become a major hurricane and could become a Category 4 well before it reaches the Lesser Anteilles," Kottlowski said.
A Category 4 hurricane has sustained winds of 130-156 mph (209-251 km/h).
Subtle changes atmospheric conditions, such as slightly drier air and a small patch of strong winds aloft, can cause significant fluctuations in strength in even the strongest of hurricanes.
Irma will take about a week for the system to make its trek westward across the Atlantic Ocean. Meteorologists will likely be tracking this storm through the middle of September.
"All interests in the eastern Caribbean will need to monitor the progress of this evolving and dangerous hurricane," Kottlowski said.
"It is way too soon to say with certainty where and if this system will impact the U.S."
During this time, plenty of atmospheric factors will come into play to determine its path.
Possibilities range from a landfall on the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean to the Carolinas and the island nation of Bermuda - and everything in between.
As of midday Thursday, Irma was located about 1,800 miles (2,900 km) east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (161 km/h).
“Steering winds will guide Irma close to the Leeward Islands and then perhaps Puerto Rico and Hispaniola around the middle of next week,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brian Thompson.
Conditions are favorable for tropical development throughout the central Atlantic, heightening the threat of significant strengthening as this system approaches the U.S.
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