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The Fact is Washington's Economy is almost entirely Government and Government contractors, when (probably in the decade) the government either defaults and drastically cuts back public sector jobs, or does planned budget cuts, DC's market will be left in shambles, much Like Atlanta (remember its estimates where only 120K high) and its building boom.
I strongly doubt Washington DC's economy will crash, especially as long as there's Democrat holding the Presidency. However, I do expect growth to slow, possibly to a point of stagnation. Completely gutting the Federal Government makes no sense during a recession, unless you're a tea partier.
One advantage that Baltimore City has over DC is taller buildings. A lot of the historic commercial office space in Baltimore's CBD is in the process of converting to residential as companies are moving to the hyper-trendy Harbor East/Harbor Point District. In fact, its widely believed that Baltimore's second tallest building, 10 Light Street, will soon be converting from office to residential. Unless DC rids itself of height limits, this is an advantage that Baltimore will continue to have over the nation's capitol.
In fact, a recent report released by Baltimore's Downtown Partnership estimates that Baltimore's CBD alone can supporty roughly 6,000 new units over the next 5 years. Current downtown residential occupancy rates hovering around 97% suggest that DP's report has some reason behind it.
That being said, Baltimore City has its work cut out for them when it comes to communities outside of the CBD, Midtown, Uptown, North Central, Southeast, & South Baltimore. West Baltimore has a lot of issues with crime/concentrated poverty. East Baltimore is pretty rough too, however Johns Hopkins is increasingly changing the eastside into their own "city inside of a city". Northeast Baltimore has to figure itself out. Harford Road is seeing some gentrification and stability, but Belair Road is seeing increased violent crime and has been hit hard with foreclosures.
In the end, Baltimore City will see increasing prosperity in the CBD and surrounding communities, while the neighborhoods further away from the water & city center will likely decline. I expect modest growth for Baltimore City over the next decade. 40 years from now, we'll probably have a higher population within city limits than Boston & Wasington DC again. Ultimately, time will tell.
D.C. will probably have over 1 million people in it before we even reach 40 years. The city is going to continue to become extremly dense and mixed use. The densest cities in the world are actually low rise. This article would be a good read for you.
The Fact is Washington's Economy is almost entirely Government and Government contractors, when (probably in the decade) the government either defaults and drastically cuts back public sector jobs, or does planned budget cuts, DC's market will be left in shambles, much Like Atlanta (remember its estimates where only 120K high) and its building boom.
D.C.'s current growth is not from government spending. The government already has massively cut back and has been shedding jobs. The job growth in DC for two years now has been in Tech Start Ups and Health Care. The D.C. you think you know is not the D.C. that is developing in front of our eyes. D.C. is changing big time. By the way, the suburbs are what will slow, not the city. If you possess any research capacity, you would see that inner cities even in the slowest growth area's are seeing growth and development if not anywhere else in the suburbs, in their city center's.
I think people get upset because they see growth in the suburbs and the city which is a major net gain. I honestly think if the suburbs in D.C. were not growing and only the city was growing like almost every slow growth region in the nation, nobody would be upset. Growth in the suburbs doesn't help to increase urbanity in anyway which to me is the only positive to population growth, so if it stops in the suburbs but continues to happen in the city much like Cleveland and Philly etc. etc. etc. I will be as happy with the results as I am now. Who goes to the suburbs anyway?
D.C. will probably have over 1 million people in it before we even reach 40 years. The city is going to continue to become extremly dense and mixed use. The densest cities in the world are actually low rise. This article would be a good read for you.
D.C.'s current growth is not from government spending. The government already has massively cut back and has been shedding jobs. The job growth in DC for two years now has been in Tech Start Ups and Health Care. The D.C. you think you know is not the D.C. that is developing in front of our eyes. D.C. is changing big time. By the way, the suburbs are what will slow, not the city. If you possess any research capacity, you would see that inner cities even in the slowest growth area's are seeing growth and development if not anywhere else in the suburbs, in their city center's.
I think people get upset because they see growth in the suburbs and the city which is a major net gain. I honestly think if the suburbs in D.C. were not growing and only the city was growing like almost every slow growth region in the nation, nobody would be upset. Growth in the suburbs doesn't help to increase urbanity in anyway which to me is the only positive to population growth, so if it stops in the suburbs but continues to happen in the city much like Cleveland and Philly etc. etc. etc. I will be as happy with the results as I am now. Who goes to the suburbs anyway?
the government is going to shed massive amounts of workers eventually, and when it happens DC will take a hard hit, even if the Tech sector is growing the collapse of the largest Job market will cripple the cities growth, look at Atlanta, Miami, or Charlotte they where saying the same thing in 2004/5/6.
the government is going to shed massive amounts of workers eventually, and when it happens DC will take a hard hit, even if the Tech sector is growing the collapse of the largest Job market will cripple the cities growth, look at Atlanta, Miami, or Charlotte they where saying the same thing in 2004/5/6.
The shed in D.C. government jobs is through retirement, not young workers. They will not be laying people off if that is what you think. The jobs when people retire are just not getting filled. They are being eliminated. So unemployment is not affected by it at all. Do you know anyone that works for the government? They could tell you that even up there in Boston. It's the same thing all across the country. By the way, what is happening is the government will use more and more contractors because it's so much cheaper since they don't have to provide benfits or retirement. D.C. is always going to be fine. The good thing is, we are pulling away from government and fast.
Don't underestimate what raising the height limit could do to D.C. 40 years is an extremly long time. Do you have any idea how different the world will be in 2050?
You just hating because DC is gonna out do Philly in population in our lifetime lol. Stop hatin son. Philly is gonna have Baltimore's crime rate in a few more years. I mean like they say like father like son but in yall cases its son like father since Baltimore is and looks like a smaller Philly.
Last edited by BKmachine; 11-24-2012 at 08:18 AM..
D.C.'s current growth is not from government spending. The government already has massively cut back and has been shedding jobs. The job growth in DC for two years now has been in Tech Start Ups and Health Care. The D.C. you think you know is not the D.C. that is developing in front of our eyes. D.C. is changing big time. By the way, the suburbs are what will slow, not the city. If you possess any research capacity, you would see that inner cities even in the slowest growth area's are seeing growth and development if not anywhere else in the suburbs, in their city center's.
I think people get upset because they see growth in the suburbs and the city which is a major net gain. I honestly think if the suburbs in D.C. were not growing and only the city was growing like almost every slow growth region in the nation, nobody would be upset. Growth in the suburbs doesn't help to increase urbanity in anyway which to me is the only positive to population growth, so if it stops in the suburbs but continues to happen in the city much like Cleveland and Philly etc. etc. etc. I will be as happy with the results as I am now. Who goes to the suburbs anyway?
This would suggest that 16% of the DC growth would be in the core for population, meaning 84% in the burbs?
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