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I wouldn't mind New York State population declining as long as all of the decline happened in Long Island
Its ON Long Island please!
I agree Long Island is overcrowded, but you can blame New York City. The insanity of crowding 8 million plus people into one city so there is a constant outflow of people leaving and moving out and overrunning other areas and making them crowded.
Its not just Long Island. Just ask New Jersey. Or Connecticut. Or Florida!
Anyway, I do not mind New York's population growing slowly. I do wish it was more evenly distributed though.
ZnGuy
You seem to have totally forgotten about the larger neighbor on your southern border. Yes, it's Georgia. Contrary to what you said here, we will still be #8 & between you & Ohio next year in population rank.
Both states have however slowed markedly in growth as compared to the numeric figures & percentage figures they achieved on a yearly basis in recent decades.
Once Florida passes New York State in population within the next year, the state rankings of the big four will be:
1. California 2. Texas 3. Florida 4. New York
Barring unforeseen huge calamities/disasters, I do not see a particularly strong chance for any alteration in that rank order for a few to several decades; perhaps as many as 40 or 50 or more years at the earliest.
When a change does come about, I suspect that it will be due to the moving up of some other state that is now further down the ranking ladder.
Any overall thoughts on that & as to what state could rise up way on down the road to move past New York and into 4th place?
Once Florida passes New York State in population within the next year, the state rankings of the big four will be:
1. California 2. Texas 3. Florida 4. New York
Barring unforeseen huge calamities/disasters, I do not see a particularly strong chance for any alteration in that rank order for a few to several decades; perhaps as many as 40 or 50 or more years at the earliest.
I understand what you are saying. I don't have an answer though.
Since you have a good idea of where things are headed population wise: Do you think Texas will gain on California before Florida gains on Texas? Or will the Big 3 remain how they are?
Well to put it this way, the latest estimate puts the gap in population between 1st place California & 2nd place Texas at roughly 11,890,000.
Despite Texas's much ballyhooed growth & the onslaught of California-bashing that has occurred, thus far this decade Texas has only caught up to California by approximately 220,000 people.
That's one reason why I used the caveat regarding unforeseen disasters earlier here as you can see that otherwise it will take 5,000 months of Sundays (if ever) for Texas to seriously challenge California for the spot of #1 in population rank.
Also, that's the basis of my thought that any eventual change in the next several decades in the ranking of the big 4 (after Florida passes New York during 2014) would come by virtue of a smaller state moving on up into the top 4.
Thus the answer to the last question you asked is that the big 3 should remain in the Ca., Tx., Fl. order I earlier forecast, once Florida does pass New York in 2014.
Once Florida passes New York State in population within the next year, the state rankings of the big four will be: 1. California 2. Texas 3. Florida 4. New York Barring unforeseen huge calamities/disasters, I do not see a particularly strong chance for any alteration in that rank order for a few to several decades; perhaps as many as 40 or 50 or more years at the earliest.
When a change does come about, I suspect that it will be due to the moving up of some other state that is now further down the ranking ladder.
Any overall thoughts on that & as to what state could rise up way on down the road to move past New York and into 4th place?
Agree to this. Texas will not surpass California until at least 2040 or 2050. If that. As for Florida catching up to Texas, it also has quite a ways to go as well.
Yeah, I see Cali as an entity that will be on top for 100+ years or more, unless like you said some major disaster displaces people. But it has tons of room and desirable population centers.
Texas just might be the same. Regarding the disaster aspect: Houston is the only vulnerable population center to major disaster(Hurricane).
Florida - Is dense already. And very much open to Disaster. Four of the major metros have plenty of growth room. Miami metro would need to start cutting into the Everglades, to keep up. Although, South Dade has some room to grow.
I don't really understand what the getup on North Dakota is about. I know they are experiencing an oil boom, and some of their larger cities are growing, but North Dakota grew at something like 3%...which is good, about twice the rate of Texas, but North Dakota is so tiny that 3% is only 22,000 people. North and South Dakota are still well below a million, perhaps by the 2020 census they will break the 1 million mark, but that's still extremely small, and growth percentages are misleading, FAR more people flock to Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona.
Yes, thank you. Would you also like to beat some puppies? Why not feel good for North Dakota's success? It had NOTHING going for it until this oil boom, and now 6 figure salaries for low-educated workers are the norm and are driving people there in droves (relative to the "booming South", of course). North Dakota is in no danger of replacing your beloved Georgia or Florida in population, so rest easy.
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