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I agree Steel with your last point. I have lived here for 34 years & have been amazed at the some of the anti-north sentiments I have encountered not just on this site but in real life. I can't hardly fathom the vitriol particularly because it is directed at fellow Americans!
It is truly as if there is a glad feeling held by too many folks down here when there is a natural misfortune or economic problem that happens in the north or even in California, a new favorite whipping boy.
One successful Atlanta businessman formerly at my firm particularly exhibited this anti-northern sentiment with almost a zeal & delight at any northern misfortune, whether it was a natural disaster (can you imagine that?) or an economic one.
I recall that he highly resented the use of money out of the national treasury to aid in overcoming disasters there.
I believe much of his vitriol was either taught as a result of the lingering resentment over the "War Between the States" or grew as part of his own personal resentment at "northern interference" into the south's post/WW2 race issues.
Living in the north for 2 & a half decades, I never encountered anything among it's residents like that or any more than good natured ribbing or rivalry with the southern region. Sometimes you sensed some measure of contempt but certainly there was never any rejoicing at misfortune whenever it occurred in the south.
As for what you said regarding Georgia & North Carolina, there may be some truth in your theories. Only time will bear out the veracity of those thoughts.
However, I recall a close friend of mine in Charlotte listing the "eggs in one basket" idea about Georgia over 30 years ago as a source of problems for Georgia. He back then expected that it would soon result in the slowing of the Georgia economy & growth.
What has instead happened in the interim, was that Georgia grew faster than anyone ever expected it would & it erased the gap of a half million by which it trailed North Carolina in population at that time & surged out to it's present lead of approximately 150,000.
On a newer note, both states have been estimated in the post 2010 census years to be growing markedly slower numerically & percentage-wise than they have for a long time.
As it stands now, it would take many decades for either of them to erase the present population gap of over 9,000,000 between them and New York State & take the 4th spot of one of the Big Four.
Steel
I was responding to points in your post @ 11:46 here, by the way.
As a further point, South Dakota has been in a recovery & growth mode for 2 decades now & has added something like 200,00 in population since the 1990 census. Though relatively small numbers, the per cent growth number has been quite high & more in line with growth that some small western states have similarly experienced.
The North Dakota resurgence is newer & it remains to be seen as whether it will last beyond the oil-inspired boom.
Speaking of weather in North Dakota, which is a topic of concern for some folks here, I just saw a few minutes ago how widespread this cold pattern has been for December.
International Falls, Mn. has just recorded it's 2nd coldest December in history & Medford, Oregon has had it's coldest December ever. Those locations are very apart but show how the cold has been widespread.
Down here in the southeast, every place other than far south Florida has been also affected & run well below normal for most of the month.
So, if records & brutal cold are being cited here particularly as in the current conditions in North Dakota, well bear in mind that they are not the only place that is cold now.
And it's going to get worse. Most models now have below zero temps all the way into north Georgia by the end of this week.
Steel
I was responding to points in your post @ 11:46 here, by the way.
As a further point, South Dakota has been in a recovery & growth mode for 2 decades now & has added something like 200,00 in population since the 1990 census. Though relatively small numbers, the per cent growth number has been quite high & more in line with growth that some small western states have similarly experienced.
The North Dakota resurgence is newer & it remains to be seen as whether it will last beyond the oil-inspired boom.
I feel like the Midwest in general is in a better position today than it has been at any time in the last 30-40 years. My home state of Ohio has been a prime example of what happens to an economy based on too few things. But what was true in 1970 is not true in 2013. Over the last decade, its net domestic migration losses have been steadily getting smaller. In 2005, the state was losing over 41,000 residents a year domestically. In 2012, it was just over 1,700. It may see positive numbers over the next few years, the first time for that in decades.
-In regards to which state likely will be the next to bump off slow-growing New York and ratchet itself into the coveted spot of being fourth-largest state in our wonderful nation, I'd have to hazard a guess to suggest North Carolina. No offense intended towards Georgia, but it seems to very much be a state that is "putting all of its eggs into one basket". If you were to take Greater Atlanta out of the equation, then the rest of Georgia's "major" cities (i.e. Savannah, Macon, Augusta, Columbus, Athens, Rome, etc.) are all much, much smaller and are growing more slowly as well. While Georgia is currently a tad larger than North Carolina I just feel as if Georgia will come to a screeching halt if and when Greater Atlanta finally starts to plateau in population growth, permitting North Carolina to overtake it. The Tarheel State has three major metropolexes either already formed or emerging: Charlotte, which stands alone; Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill/Cary (fueled by the Research Triangle Park's consistent growth); and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point. I'm also projecting that Fayetteville will become a more formidable fourth major metropolitan area for the state in the coming years. This "spreading of fortunes" will help North Carolina to maintain its pace of rapid growth even if another recession slaps one of its major metropolitan areas to a screeching halt. I do love Atlanta; however, I do worry about Georgia's ability to maintain its prominence in population rankings since it is relying upon Atlanta and Atlanta alone to be its breadwinner while North Carolina has diversified itself. I foresee North Carolina rivaling and potentially surpassing New York around 2050.
I have to say no way to this point. New York has almost 10 million more people than North Carolina. Even if New York stood still (which it won't) and North Carolina grew at 2 million people per decade (which it has never done) it would still take another 5 decades of explosive growth for them to be roughly equal in population. The same can be said of Georgia.
I foresee North Carolina rivaling and potentially surpassing New York around 2050.
At current growth rates, North Carolina wouldn't surpass NY State for centuries. It would take around 500 years.
And you can't just extrapolate growth rates outward. 50 years from now, I guarantee growth trends will be totally different, just like they were totally different 50 years ago. North Carolina is a booming state right now, but won't boom forever. Michigan is a slow-growth state right now, but won't be slow-growth forever.
NY State, for a Northeastern/Midwestern state, actually isn't very slow-growth. It's more moderate growth. The problem in NY State is that all the growth is in NYC and nearby suburbs. If Upstate ever starts growing again, the state will probably have stronger numerical growth than North Carolina, even assuming North Carolina continues booming.
Agree to this. Texas will not surpass California until at least 2040 or 2050. If that. As for Florida catching up to Texas, it also has quite a ways to go as well.
Texas will not surpass California in our lifetime, unless something drastic happens. And if somehow Cali starts to become more affordable, everyone can really forget any state ever challenging California. The SoCal alone is comparable to Texas in population in 1/5 the area. And Florida will not be catching Texas in 2050. All three states are booming population wise and the gaps are too big for each to "catch" one another without major unforeseen outside influence.
I'm happy to report that the note here that warned of below zero temps all the way southeast into Georgia later this week doesn't match up at all with anything I have found in forecasts.
Perhaps at the highest mountain elevations in the state the wind chill might dip below zero but certainly not the actual temperature.
As for what comes later in January, who can say.
-In regards to which state likely will be the next to bump off slow-growing New York and ratchet itself into the coveted spot of being fourth-largest state in our wonderful nation, I'd have to hazard a guess to suggest North Carolina. No offense intended towards Georgia, but it seems to very much be a state that is "putting all of its eggs into one basket". If you were to take Greater Atlanta out of the equation, then the rest of Georgia's "major" cities (i.e. Savannah, Macon, Augusta, Columbus, Athens, Rome, etc.) are all much, much smaller and are growing more slowly as well. While Georgia is currently a tad larger than North Carolina I just feel as if Georgia will come to a screeching halt if and when Greater Atlanta finally starts to plateau in population growth, permitting North Carolina to overtake it. The Tarheel State has three major metropolexes either already formed or emerging: Charlotte, which stands alone; Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill/Cary (fueled by the Research Triangle Park's consistent growth); and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point. I'm also projecting that Fayetteville will become a more formidable fourth major metropolitan area for the state in the coming years. This "spreading of fortunes" will help North Carolina to maintain its pace of rapid growth even if another recession slaps one of its major metropolitan areas to a screeching halt. I do love Atlanta; however, I do worry about Georgia's ability to maintain its prominence in population rankings since it is relying upon Atlanta and Atlanta alone to be its breadwinner while North Carolina has diversified itself. I foresee North Carolina rivaling and potentially surpassing New York around 2050.
No.
While I do believe that NC will eventually retake it's lead in the NC/GA population war, it won't ever catch New York in our lifetime either. Anyway,
Georgia is severely under counted. If I had to gauge our population estimates right now, I would say we're at about 10.3 million. There are several counties, especially in South Georgia that have figures as low as 40k that are "counted" to have grown by only 5k over the past 10 years but their schools, businesses, and amenities have shot through the roof.
A prime example of these would be Tift, Thomas, and Colquitt. Lowndes has boomed but it's a different story. The first three have just as much development and busyness as LaGrange/Troup, but some how according to the Census, they're less than 50k. Even the Sheriff's in these counties looked at the numbers like
Valdosta/Lowndes County feels busier than Warner Robins/Peach County everyday of the week but is smaller in population? How? The numbers don't make any sense.
Moving back up to metropolitan Atlanta...
To think that Gwinnett is under 900k right now is foolish. DeKalb is at already or slightly above 800k, and Cobb is in the mid to high 700ks. Fulton has over a million. I would have pegged Atlanta at just below 5.7 million last year. But I digress
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