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It's interesting/disturbing that this is happening. I agree with the article that some places are probably experiencing a rise due to racial tensions, but not everywhere. Nashville absent of racial issues by any means, but I certainly wouldn't say the cause of the spike has to do with racial issues. Two straight years with total murders around 40, then 42 already this year. We're on pace to have a 50% spike.
There's doubts that it's even necessarily true of St. Louis. Here's an excerpt from a more in-depth article from the NY Times:
Quote:
Among some experts and rank-and-file officers, the notion that less aggressive policing has emboldened criminals — known as the “Ferguson effect” in some circles — is a popular theory for the uptick in violence.
“The equilibrium has changed between police and offenders,” said Alfred Blumstein, a professor and a criminologist at Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University.
Others doubt the theory or say data has not emerged to prove it. Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist from the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said homicides in St. Louis, for instance, had already begun an arc upward in 2014 before a white police officer killed an unarmed teenager, Michael Brown, in nearby Ferguson. That data, he said, suggests that other factors may be in play.
Less debated is the sense among police officials that more young people are settling their disputes, including one started on Facebook, with guns.
Capt. Mike Sack, a homicide commander in the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department, cited killings there that had grown out of arguments over girlfriends, food and even characters on a TV show. “Most remarkable is that individuals get so upset over things that I or others might consider petty but resort to such a level of violence,” he said.
There's doubts that it's even necessarily true of St. Louis. Here's an excerpt from a more in-depth article from the NY Times:
That's definitely interesting. My question is why does it seem so sudden? Again, with my hometown example, we went from having two years with historically low murder counts (40, 41) to having 7 in January of 2015. It's not like in 2015 people all of a sudden decided that murder was OK to commit.
I mean, I'm not offering up any answers or theories here. It's just strange. I guess it would be too cliche to just blame the media. lol.
It's interesting/disturbing that this is happening. I agree with the article that some places are probably experiencing a rise due to racial tensions, but not everywhere. Nashville absent of racial issues by any means, but I certainly wouldn't say the cause of the spike has to do with racial issues. Two straight years with total murders around 40, then 42 already this year. We're on pace to have a 50% spike.
same thing here in Louisville. Already around 45 murders here. I think we had 46 total all of 2014. My friend is in the FBI; he said in years when drugs are making big moves, you will see more murders and that is a national trend this year.
I haven't. SLMPD updates the city's murders on their site once a week I believe, but I haven't seen the County Police Department do something similar.
This was the best thing I could find, but it's only through June, and you'd have to add up the numbers yourself, unlike what SLMPD does. Department Crime Statistics
I found this update that was posted September 2 for the County but it doesn't cover all of St.Louis County. I don't know why they just don't list all of the City's homicides and then give all of the County's homicides. Either way they are both way ahead of last year.
It is strange, this across the board rise in murders. Some places aren't seeing it, such as Detroit which is basically at a low point for murders this year, down 25% over the past 3 years.
These are all from the past week or so:
New York City: 208 or 2.5/100,000
Boston: 19 or 2.9/100,000
Los Angeles: 189 or 4.9/100,000
San Francisco: 41 or 4.9/100,000
Nashville: 42 or 6.4/100,000
Columbus: 62 or 7.5/100,000
Oklahoma City: 54 or 8.9/100,000
Tulsa: 42 or 10.5/100,000
Indianaplolis: 95 or 10.8/100,000
Philadelphia: 175 or 11.3/100,000
Chicago: 316 or 11.7/100,000
Kansas City: 56 or 12.0/100,000
Memphis: 99 or 15.1/100,000
Washington DC: 105 or 16.0/100,000
Cincinnati: 51 or 17.1/100,000
Milwaukee: 104 or 17.3/100,000
Hardford: 24 or 19.2/100,000
Birmingham: 42 or 19.8/100,000
Oakland: 89 or 21.9/100,000
Jackson, MS: 39 or 22.5/100,000
Newark: 63 or 22.6/100,000
Camden: 22 or 27.5/100,000
Detroit: 194 or 28.1/100,000
New Orleans: 120 or 31.7/100,000
Baltimore: 225 or 36.2/100,000
St Louis: 136 or 42.8/100,000
Gary: 39 or 50.0/100,000
Last edited by Chicago60614; 09-03-2015 at 11:03 AM..
It is strange, this across the board rise in murders. Some places aren't seeing it, such as Detroit which is basically at a low point for murders this year, down 25% over the past 3 years.
Detroit is about even with last year though. And even though its murder count is lower than normal, it's not abnormal per capita. Detroit's had between 300-400 for at least 15 years even when the population was over 900k pre-2010. Now it's about 675k. So 300 homicides with 675k people is still worse than it was in in 2002 when there were 402 homicides with 923k people.
I believe 2011 and 2012 were the two most violent years this century in Detroit per capita. 2013 and 2014 were up there among the most violent as well. This year is going to be about even with 2014.
Last edited by joeyg2014; 09-03-2015 at 07:39 PM..
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