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According to the censu data DC in total has averaged about 3,500 new residential unit occupancy permits per year in 11, 12, and 13 14 data not available
Yes, and the development pipeline numbers back that up. That's not me, that's pipeline. Even if the development footprint doesn't hit that by 2030, it will hit it once everything is built.
So you assume the development pipeline will sustain this level of growth through 2030 with increased vacancy rates and unprecedented pipeline and slowed job growth?
look I imagine you think I am a pain but frankly I just don't believe these numbers and especially all in that space within this timeframe - You cant straight line growth
with straight line assumptions by 2030 Philadelphia will have built 15 supertalls by then - well a silly example but again these estimates you are giving just dont pass the sniff test IMHO
just a side note - the average per building is 125 not 300 based on your data UC and 250 for the proposals. - Do you think all 202 residential proposals will be built?
So again pipelines are just that and personally I cant see the current level of development sustaining through 2030 - its unprecedented
So you assume the development pipeline will sustain this level of growth through 2030 with increased vacancy rates and unprecedented pipeline and slowed job growth?
look I imagine you think I am a pain but frankly I just don't believe these numbers and especially all in that space within this timeframe - You cant straight line growth
with straight line assumptions by 2030 Philadelphia will have built 15 supertalls by then - well a silly example but again these estimates you are giving just dont pass the sniff test IMHO
Actually you can, it's called induced growth. New construction is the only way to induce growth. It has to be new net units. That is how sprawl works. Population can only occur if you build new grass field units. If you build it, they will come. If a city doesn't build new units or build new additions on current buildings, it can't grow except by increasing household size.
Look no further than Arlington which captured all it's growth along the metro line's from new construction from 2000-2010. D.C. is doing the same thing by strategically growing where it wants too through the funneling of new construction.
just a side note - the average per building is 125 not 300 based on your data UC and 250 for the proposals. - Do you think all 202 residential proposals will be built?
So again pipelines are just that and personally I cant see the current level of development sustaining through 2030 - its unprecedented
That 125 unit average is citywide. That is not in the 12 sq. mile area I'm talking about. The 300 unit average is more about the pipeline coming through because it's almost all large buildings which is what is being built there now also.
Also, I just said even if it's not all built by 2030, it will be built and when it is, the area will have an extremely high density.
Actually you can, it's called induced growth. New construction is the only way to induce growth. It has to be new net units. That is how sprawl works. Population can only occur if you build new grass field units. If you build it, they will come. If a city doesn't build new units or build new additions on current buildings, it can't grow except by increasing household size.
Look no further than Arlington which captured all it's growth along the metro line's from new construction from 2000-2010. D.C. is doing the same thing by strategically growing where it wants too through the funneling of new construction.
Also, just an FYI, NOMA right now doesn't have a 30% vacancy rate. Those buildings had just opened when they posted that article. Ahhh....the art of journalism. The buildings in the core are all leasing up in 1 year. The average is two years. Stop trying to tell me about my city through random articles you read lol....
Also, just an FYI, NOMA right now doesn't have a 30% vacancy rate. Those buildings had just opened when they posted that article. Ahhh....the art of journalism.
Looks like prices have held - the one thing to me on the link is the District absorption of the new delivery at 2,731 of 4,477 (61%) - that to me is scary on the demand front
Straight-lining this to the pipe reported - there will be ~4,300 new delivery units that go un-occupied
Dunno but to me reads as a slow down in construction unless absorption rates dramatically increase and the pipe i growing not declining - would seem the market has to eventually level set to absorption rates
DC has been a very bullish market for some time - nearly all bulls have bear moments as well - maybe is just me but this seem like to much construction for the current demand and absorption rates your link had.
I just dont believe the current rate is sustainable and even your link while rents are fine - the absorption rate is weak and there is more pipe then ever - Generally not a good sign for continued development
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