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The general sense that I'm getting is that the Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA will be moving up to 7th next year, if not then it will just barely miss doing that. It just joined the 6 million club in 2015, Atlanta will be at that point soon as well (joining the 6 million group of American cities).
In the interim period, the 6th spot will come down to Washington DC MSA (the National Capital Region) versus the Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA (Southeast Florida), and a few years later down the line, Atlanta will be in the mix as well. The former scenario will begin taking shape after the 2016 census estimates, the latter scenario directly after the 2020 census.
All 4 cities in question posted gains and have crossed or are in the process of crossing 6 million. So good top down for all.
The collective group of these four is starting to constrict into the same general range. Which makes it really interesting when you think about which of the four will sit in 6th come 2020 and then subsequently in 2030. Three of them are nearly identical in growth percentage, overall, and it doesn't help that the same advantage also extends to raw numerical growth for the same three as well.
2016 Census Estimates and Rank (with 2010 census results to its right and the growth percentage to the right of that):
The collective group of these four is starting to constrict into the same general range. Which makes it really interesting when you think about which of the four will sit in 6th come 2020 and then subsequently in 2030. Three of them are nearly identical in growth percentage, overall, and it doesn't help that the same advantage also extends to raw numerical growth for the same three as well.
2016 Census Estimates and Rank (with 2010 census results to its right and the growth percentage to the right of that):
Yep. Should be interesting.
I think the DC area will experience a slow down. Because of how expensive it's gotten here, I think it's pushing people away due to literally being priced out.
I think Florida will continue to grow. Atlanta, I'm not really sure about, could go either way.
The collective group of these four is starting to constrict into the same general range. Which makes it really interesting when you think about which of the four will sit in 6th come 2020 and then subsequently in 2030. Three of them are nearly identical in growth percentage, overall, and it doesn't help that the same advantage also extends to raw numerical growth for the same three as well.
2016 Census Estimates and Rank (with 2010 census results to its right and the growth percentage to the right of that):
Another factor to consider is that out of the 4 MSA's listed Miami is the only one that is geographically constrained which could eventually limit its population growth.
By 2020, and if current projections are somewhat accurate, it's likely to be:
6. D.C.
7. Miami
8. Atlanta
9. Philly
D.C.'s (+495,745), Miami's (+501,752) and Atlanta's (+502,972) absolute growth numbers since 2010 are just way too close to each other for them to change order relative to each other and with the current gaps. By 2020, the gap between D.C. and Miami might shrink to 50,000 and the gap between Miami and Atlanta might shrink as well. But there's a lot of ground to cover for Atlanta since it's more than 275,000 behind Miami.
A small stumble on D.C.'s part could open the door for Miami to ascend to 6th but it would take an epic turn of events for Atlanta to reach that milestone by the next Census.
By 2025, it's easier to imagine Miami taking 6th but it's still not a certainty. At some point, South Florida will be chocked for available land, something that neither D.C. nor Atlanta face. It will be interesting to see how all the anti-immigrant rhetoric turns into policy that affects growth in cities that rely on immigration. If it gets significantly choked, it could be the window of opportunity for Atlanta to ascend more quickly up the rankings as growth could significantly slow in Miami and D.C.
By 2020, and if current projections are somewhat accurate, it's likely to be:
6. D.C.
7. Miami
8. Atlanta
9. Philly
D.C.'s (+495,745), Miami's (+501,752) and Atlanta's (+502,972) absolute growth numbers since 2010 are just way too close to each other for them to change order relative to each other and with the current gaps. By 2020, the gap between D.C. and Miami might shrink to 50,000 and the gap between Miami and Atlanta might shrink as well. But there's a lot of ground to cover for Atlanta since it's more than 275,000 behind Miami.
A small stumble on D.C.'s part could open the door for Miami to ascend to 6th but it would take an epic turn of events for Atlanta to reach that milestone by the next Census.
Unless DC and Baltimore MSA's combine to form a 10M+ metro by 2020.
It's currently at 9,665,892.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DC4ever
Unless DC and Baltimore MSA's combine to form a 10M+ metro by 2020.
It's currently at 9,665,892.
I don't think the two MSA's will combine by 2020, even if the CSA reaches 10 million by then. It will take a while longer for that.
However, DC's MSA even if a slow down occurs has the easiest chance of poaching a county of significant population which could further separate it's MSA count. Either Howard or Anne Arundel could come into the fold which are 300k and 500k respectively. Then if St Mary's County were added another 100k (not a part of either MSA) could also find its way in DC's MSA the more people get priced out of the core.
Montgomery county and Howard are already looking at a bus connector expansion to increase transit options between the two.
* Both Washington D.C. and Miami/Fort Lauderdale have been there before. The 6th spot, historically speaking (literally) has largely been a revolving door over the decades.
Here is how it is year by year of the 2010s decade so far. Even just this decade, the 6th spot has had 3 different occupants (Houston (2010), Philadelphia (2011-2014), Washington D.C. (2015-Present)).
It's amazing how slow growing Atlanta was throughout most of the 20th century. It's like a switch just turned on around 1980.
Also, NYC, LA and Chicago went through some incredible booms in the mid 1900s.
Unless DC and Baltimore MSA's combine to form a 10M+ metro by 2020.
It's currently at 9,665,892.
There are a lot of wildcards in play for the next 14 years.
Wildcard #1:
- Greater Phoenix MSA gets itself into the Top 10 by 2020. This at face value doesn't really mean much in the immediate future as much as it does in the medium to longterm. Phoenix should finish the 2010s decade with a population around 5 million people by 2020, which will likely be 1.1 million shy of the place in #9 (Philadelphia) in 2020. However, by 2030 Phoenix could make it interesting. In the last couple of years Phoenix has assumed its pre-recession form by going + 88,000 and + 93,000 respectively the past two years. It seems an acceleration is on the horizon as well, as these numbers depict more of a "start of something" rather than a ceiling for years to come, and that is clearly evidenced by Phoenix posting an acceleration each year-over-year period for the last 4 years. I think it is reasonable to expect Phoenix back over + 100,000 a year in the near future, it's been trending that direction more and more each year for the last 4 years and it used to be at that level for nearly 13 years prior to the Great Recession. So the wildcard is Phoenix's growth and whether it continues to post acceleration or if this + 85,000 - 95,000 is a ceiling.
- Whether Greater Phoenix MSA can stay in the Top 10 following the 2023 census redefinitions remains to be seen but my expectation is that Phoenix's time in the Top 10 MSAs will only be a brief 3 year long cameo (2020-2023) before it is pushed back out by the redefined Boston and San Francisco/Oakland areas.
Wildcard #2:
- The San Francisco/Oakland MSA and Boston MSAs both enlarge to gargantuan sizes when going from MSA to CSA. A lot of the additional territories that exist in the CSA but not the MSA can be subject to being absorbed by the core MSA of each place in the 2023 census definition realignment. Here's an overview of how much they expand when going from one metric to the next in mathematical terms;
2016 Population
Greater Boston MSA: 4,794,447
Greater Boston CSA: 8,176,376
Difference from MSA to CSA? 3,381,929 people. That's nearly 3.4 million people that are added into Greater Boston when the definition shifts from MSA to CSA, when it goes from 25% minimum commuter threshold to 15% commuter threshold. Commuter links are prone to increasing ties over the course of time and Greater Boston MSA is poised to add areas that exist in its CSA into its MSA.
Currently these are the MSAs and micropolitan areas that are within Greater Boston CSA;
1. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area
2. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Metropolitan Statistical Area
3. Worcester, MA-CT Metropolitan Statistical Area
4. Manchester-Nashua, NH Metropolitan Statistical Area
5. Barnstable Town, MA Metropolitan Statistical Area
6. Concord, NH Micropolitan Statistical Area
7. Laconia, NH Micropolitan Statistical Area
Similarly, the same applies to the San Francisco Bay Area as well when going from MSA to CSA.
2016 Population
Greater San Francisco/Oakland MSA: 4,679,166
Greater San Francisco Bay Area CSA: 8,751,807
Difference from MSA to CSA? 4,072,641 people.
Currently these are the MSAs and micropolitan areas that are within the Greater San Francisco Bay Area CSA;
1. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
2. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
3. Stockton-Lodi, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
4. Santa Rosa, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
5. Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
5. Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
6. Napa, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
The San Francisco/Oakland MSA likely wont ever absorb the San Jose MSA into its MSA. However, if the San Francisco/Oakland MSA goes on to absorb other MSAs in its CSA right now like Stockton MSA, Santa Rosa MSA, Vallejo MSA, or the Napa MSA - which it will do in 2023, it will add at least two, possibly three of those in 2023 into its MSA, then it will push itself into the Top 10 MSAs. Likely higher than #8 but below #5.
If both Boston MSA and the San Francisco/Oakland MSA add MSAs that are in its CSA to the core MSA in the 2023 census definitions, then the MSA that are currently ranked #9 and #10 in the largest MSAs of the United States will be replaced and taken out of the top 10. Again, San Francisco/Oakland MSA doesn't even have to absorb San Jose MSA, it can absorb two or three of the other minor MSAs that are currently in its CSA and will still wind up with 6.3 to 6.6 million or more people. Greater Boston is also increasingly likely to add areas into the core Boston MSA that are currently in its CSA during the 2023 census realignment. Since 2013, areas in Boston's CSA apart from Boston MSA have increasingly become even more dependent of Boston MSA for employment, services, amenities, and offerings. Expect that to add up to absorption in 2023.
Finally, there are over 1 million people in the Washington DC-Baltimore CSA that live in MSAs or micropolitan areas that are not the Washington DC MSA or the Baltimore MSA. I don't expect Baltimore MSA to be absorbed into the Washington DC MSA in 2023, similar to how I don't expect San Francisco/Oakland MSA to absorb the San Jose MSA in 2023. However, I do expect the Washington D.C. MSA to absorb the smaller MSAs and micropolitan areas and the bulk of those 1 million people in the Washington DC-Baltimore CSA that don't live in the Baltimore MSA or Washington DC MSA.
Wildcard #3:
- Natural disasters have the ability to throw everything off track. Something to keep a watch out for but not likely going to be a factor to a significant extent during this period.
Summary:
- I think the ranking of the Top 10 most populous MSAs in 2020 will be as follows with Washington D.C. retaining the 6th spot it currently is in now (IMO);
01. New York
02. Los Angeles
03. Chicago
04. Dallas/Fort Worth
05. Houston
06. Washington D.C.
07. Miami/Fort Lauderdale
08. Atlanta
09. Philadelphia
10. Phoenix
After the 2023 census definition realignment, I believe the Top 10 MSAs will then shake out to look more like this;
01. New York
02. Los Angeles
03. Chicago
04. Dallas/Fort Worth
05. Houston
06. Washington D.C.
07. San Francisco/Oakland
08. Boston
09. Miami/Fort Lauderdale
10. Atlanta
By the 2030 census, the Top 10 MSAs should look more like this;
01. New York
02. Los Angeles
03. Chicago
04. Dallas/Fort Worth
05. Houston
06. Washington D.C.
07. Atlanta
08. Miami/Fort Lauderdale
09. San Francisco/Oakland
10. Boston
This is contingent of the MSAs of Boston and San Francisco/Oakland being expanded in the 2023 census redefinitions, which is that both are very well poised to do so. Over the decades, both areas have exerted far more control and influence over their surrounding MSAs, the connection is getting deeper, not thinner. I don't expect Baltimore MSA or San Jose MSA to be absorbed by Washington DC MSA or San Francisco/Oakland MSA in 2023 but both Washington DC MSA and San Francisco/Oakland MSA will no doubt absorb two or more of the other minor MSAs or micropolitan areas that they have in their broader CSAs currently. Boston will more than likely outright absorb Worcester MSA and a heavy chance of taking in Providence MSA as well, primarily because the employment sector in Providence has been decimated with stagnation since the start of the 2010s and the commuting ties have increased exponentially between the two areas to an even more significant extent.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 04-08-2017 at 04:58 PM..
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