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Old 05-25-2016, 01:58 PM
 
Location: The City
22,402 posts, read 34,204,612 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa View Post
Using the new 2015 Census estimates, here are the 2020 Projections for Florida's 22 Cities over 100k (assuming aggregate growth is constant from 2010-2015 levels)



The top 6 will stay largely the same: Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Saint Petersburg, Hialeah.

After that, there will be battle royale for #7 b/w Cape Coral, Fort Lauderdale, Port Saint Lucie and Tallahassee. In the end Cape Coral will likely win.

Cape Coral Population Growth
1960: 0
1970: 10,193
1980: 32,103
1990: 74,991
2000: 102,286
2010: 154,305
2020 Est: 194,160

PA only has 4 cities over 100K and likely will never more dues really small city/municipality boundaries
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Old 05-25-2016, 02:03 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Commonwealth of Virginia
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2020 Estimates for Texas' Cities over 100k:

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Old 05-25-2016, 02:04 PM
 
Location: Louisville
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
PA only has 4 cities over 100K and likely will never more dues really small city/municipality boundaries
There are quite a few states with the same issue. There are also quite a few cities with very small footprints, that used to be over 100k and have fallen below it. That begs the question how do we make those cities grow again? Vs. rely on sunbelt sprawl and annexation being the benchmark for growth.
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Old 05-25-2016, 02:15 PM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
There are quite a few states with the same issue. There are also quite a few cities with very small footprints, that used to be over 100k and have fallen below it. That begs the question how do we make those cities grow again? Vs. rely on sunbelt sprawl and annexation being the benchmark for growth.


understood Also much of these older cities (totally built out or nearly built out with small footprints) los a lot of population due to reduction in household size more then reductions in dwellings



though to be fair the Sunbelt cities are growing and attracting jobs better than most North East or Rust belt cities that relyed very heavy and heavy manufacturing for their earlier growth. That dynamic has changed. A place like Philly with all its warts transitioned much better than have the likes of a Reading or Erie in this regard. The smaller place were not able to convert their economies as easily





Look at places in PS like a Reading etc. 10 sq miles and a population today of 88K it peaked at about 125K


Erie PA may well drop below 100K soon its at 101K today
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Old 05-25-2016, 02:18 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grega94 View Post
Seattle's density in 2010 was 7264.98/sq mi and no in 2015 it is 8169.6/sq mi.
+904 ppl/sm is very respectable but it's not the top.

Some of America's most densely populated cities are becoming even more densely populated.
Since 2010, San Francisco has increased its density by 1271 to 18,451 ppl/sm, Miami has increased its density by 1163 to 12,359 ppl/sm, Washington DC has increased its density by 1155 to 11,011 ppl/sm, and Boston has increased its density by 1024 to 13,778 ppl/sm.
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Old 05-25-2016, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Commonwealth of Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
PA only has 4 cities over 100K and likely will never more dues really small city/municipality boundaries
Erie, as of this latest estimate, has dipped below 100k. So now Pennsylvania has 3 - Allentown, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. And the vast majority of the growth in the State is in the Philadelphia area. The City of Philadelphia alone will account for 41.3% of Pennsylvania's projected population gain from 2010-2020.

I've attached the 2020 Projections for Pennsylvania Municipalities over 25k:

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Old 05-25-2016, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
There are quite a few states with the same issue. There are also quite a few cities with very small footprints, that used to be over 100k and have fallen below it. That begs the question how do we make those cities grow again? Vs. rely on sunbelt sprawl and annexation being the benchmark for growth.
Well, speaking from a small city that used to be over 100K, many of those small cities, after having lost manufacturing jobs and adapting (or still trying to adapt) to the new economy, are hampered by archaic annexation laws and vocal opposition from wealthy suburbanites. Two stalled recent issues, a small annexation attempt of industrial park land and a redistricting of a school district, highlight this very issue.

Wilmington looks to annex land for industrial park

WDEL 101.7FM - Gregory says port expansion, annexation could benefit Wilmington

Delaware legislators procrastinate fixing Wilmington schools' 'dysfunctional mess'

"The city's power to annex property was stripped in the early 1970s. The city at the time tried to forcibly annex the DuPont Co.'s Experimental Station property on Powder Mill Road.

The Delaware Legislature eventually created a special requirement that Wilmington has to get state approval before annexing any land."


"Others, especially those representing Red Clay, fear that adding more of Wilmington to their district might negatively impact their schools. On top of that, there's the worry that Red Clay taxpayers will bear a financial burden if the state doesn't come up with the money for low-income and English-language-learning students that's needed to make the plan effective."

These restrictions, in my opinion, are due to fears of wealthy suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively) who do not want to be "dragged down" by merging with/helping Wilmington. This city/suburb divide plays out all across the country, for sure, but seems to be particularly strong here in the Delaware Valley, as most municipalities not named Philadelphia have quite small city limits.

So expanding the small footprints is essentially a pipe dream. If many of these municipalities could include their wealthy suburbs and other suburban sprawl, they'd be much larger. Wilmington itself would be a city of around 500,000 if it was the size of the Sunbelt cities, so it is quite the conundrum. Rather than keep building out/annexing, and thus continually gain new revenue streams, these cities are forced to revitalize from within. This is ultimately good, but it slows the process comparatively, as it is much harder to generate revenue this way.
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Old 05-25-2016, 02:35 PM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa View Post
Erie, as of this latest estimate, has dipped below 100k. So now Pennsylvania has 3 - Allentown, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. And the vast majority of the growth in the State is in the Philadelphia area. The City of Philadelphia alone will account for 41.3% of Pennsylvania's projected population gain from 2010-2020.

I've attached the 2020 Projections for Pennsylvania Municipalities over 25k:


Interesting thanks. There are few townships (Bensalem, Upper Darby, West Chester etc but none large land area wise) that are larger not in your list but similar dynamics


Philly is growing again after losing population for about 50 straight years, it peaked at close to 2.1/2 million in 1950 - and in only about 95 inhabitable sq miles


The Philly metro will probably account for 70+% of all PA's growth
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Old 05-25-2016, 02:45 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
12,871 posts, read 20,537,758 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Interesting thanks. There are few townships (Bensalem, Upper Darby, West Chester etc but none large land area wise) that are larger not in your list but similar dynamics


Philly is growing again after losing population for about 50 straight years, it peaked at close to 2.1/2 million in 1950 - and in only about 95 inhabitable sq miles


The Philly metro will probably account for 70+% of all PA's growth
What happened to the other nearly 40 square miles of land?
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Old 05-25-2016, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
What happened to the other nearly 40 square miles of land?
I'm assuming it was manufacturing areas at the time? I'm not sure, either, as the city merged with the county in 1854 for its present-day borders.
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