U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S. > City vs. City
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-25-2016, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Commonwealth of Virginia
2,217 posts, read 1,617,161 times
Reputation: 3045

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Interesting thanks. There are few townships (Bensalem, Upper Darby, West Chester etc but none large land area wise) that are larger not in your list but similar dynamics


Philly is growing again after losing population for about 50 straight years, it peaked at close to 2.1/2 million in 1950 - and in only about 95 inhabitable sq miles


The Philly metro will probably account for 70+% of all PA's growth
The Census Bureau unfortunately doesn't cover those three townships. Upper Darby is divided into a bunch of CDPs: Aronimink, Beverly Hills, Bywood, Drexel Park, Highland Park, Llanerch Hills, Kellyville, Kirklyn, Oakview, Primos, Secane, Stonehurst, and Westbrook Park. So those population figures won't be known until 2020 since the Census doesnt provide estimates for Census-Designated Places.

Here are the 2020 Projections for the Five PA Counties in the Philadelphia MSA:



According to the projections, those 5 counties will account for 84.8% of Pennsylvania's growth. If you add Berks County (Reading), it goes up to 88.6%.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-25-2016, 02:04 PM
 
Location: The City
22,402 posts, read 34,318,747 times
Reputation: 7845
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa View Post
The Census Bureau unfortunately doesn't cover those three townships. Upper Darby is divided into a bunch of CDPs: Aronimink, Beverly Hills, Bywood, Drexel Park, Highland Park, Llanerch Hills, Kellyville, Kirklyn, Oakview, Primos, Secane, Stonehurst, and Westbrook Park. So those population figures won't be known until 2020 since the Census doesnt provide estimates for Census-Designated Places.

Here are the 2020 Projections for the Five PA Counties in the Philadelphia MSA:



According to the projections, those 5 counties will account for 84.8% of Pennsylvania's growth. If you add Berks County (Reading), it goes up to 88.6%.


Berks is actually the only other PA county in the Philly CSA (others are in NJ, DE, and MD) so the nearly 89% would be the CSA representation. Philly is pretty different then the rest of the sate in many ways
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 02:39 PM
 
5,546 posts, read 5,897,454 times
Reputation: 3795
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
There are quite a few states with the same issue. There are also quite a few cities with very small footprints, that used to be over 100k and have fallen below it. That begs the question how do we make those cities grow again? Vs. rely on sunbelt sprawl and annexation being the benchmark for growth.
Growth is a symptom of desirability. For the vast majority of Americans (and humans), good paying jobs are the magnet for growth. There are other factors when discussing desirability, but a good many of those things continue to boil down to economics. The challenge is that as a city ages, it ebbs and flows economically as infrastructure ages and other financial obligations come into the picture. Sunbelt cities will face the same fate for the most part.

Low density cities are not cheap to build, so it's not like this is a discussion about urban planning IMO. It's more about where the jobs are located, and sun belt cities are cheaper in a lot of ways (lower taxes, less government overhead, grants, etc.) for now.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 05:29 PM
 
62 posts, read 51,215 times
Reputation: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa View Post
The Census Bureau unfortunately doesn't cover those three townships. Upper Darby is divided into a bunch of CDPs: Aronimink, Beverly Hills, Bywood, Drexel Park, Highland Park, Llanerch Hills, Kellyville, Kirklyn, Oakview, Primos, Secane, Stonehurst, and Westbrook Park. So those population figures won't be known until 2020 since the Census doesnt provide estimates for Census-Designated Places.

Here are the 2020 Projections for the Five PA Counties in the Philadelphia MSA:



According to the projections, those 5 counties will account for 84.8% of Pennsylvania's growth. If you add Berks County (Reading), it goes up to 88.6%.
Eh, cities across the country were growing faster during the first 3 or so years of the decade vs. now as suburbs begin to accelerate their growth again. Looking at Philly's stats for recent years, growth seems to be decelerating so I can see the official population being lower than their estimates if the deceleration continues.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 05:34 PM
 
6,204 posts, read 3,631,608 times
Reputation: 4403
Quote:
Originally Posted by Perverse Instantiation View Post
Looking at Philly's stats for recent years, growth seems to be decelerating so I can see the official population being lower than their estimates if the deceleration continues.
actually the city is beating all estimations by this point so who knows.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 05:38 PM
 
62 posts, read 51,215 times
Reputation: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by AJNEOA View Post
Growth is a symptom of desirability. For the vast majority of Americans (and humans), good paying jobs are the magnet for growth. There are other factors when discussing desirability, but a good many of those things continue to boil down to economics. The challenge is that as a city ages, it ebbs and flows economically as infrastructure ages and other financial obligations come into the picture. Sunbelt cities will face the same fate for the most part.

Low density cities are not cheap to build, so it's not like this is a discussion about urban planning IMO. It's more about where the jobs are located, and sun belt cities are cheaper in a lot of ways (lower taxes, less government overhead, grants, etc.) for now.
Sunbelt cities are cheaper because they don't have urban growth boundaries or government limiting development. That's the main reason.

Basically, the demand cities like Atlanta and Dallas has is at or higher than cities like SF Bay Area, NYC Metro, etc and that demand is supplied because developers can freely build new housing whereas there are limits that developers can build in the SF Bay Area and NYC. So as the basic rules states, when supply is equal or greater than demand, this either flattens housing values or starts dropping them. When demand is not satisfied, that creates competition for housing which increases housing values as buyers are fighting each other for houses, apartments, and condos.

Atlanta and Dallas essentially sprawling into oblivion has essentially allowed them to stay cheap. If SF Bay Area began sprawling uncontrollably and allowed developers to go bonkers, it would probably be able to satisfy the housing demand which would flatten or drop housing values, but they won't do that.

You can easily see it with the current year to date housing permits issued for Metropolitan areas: http://www.census.gov/construction/b...t3yu201604.txt

The usual three southern suspects are at the top for permits issued.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 05:39 PM
 
62 posts, read 51,215 times
Reputation: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by thedirtypirate View Post
actually the city is beating all estimations by this point so who knows.
I meant to say his estimates. He simply took the first 5 years of growth and projected it to 2020.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 06:16 PM
 
1,851 posts, read 1,726,386 times
Reputation: 1283
Quote:
Originally Posted by Perverse Instantiation View Post
Sunbelt cities are cheaper because they don't have urban growth boundaries or government limiting development. That's the main reason.

Basically, the demand cities like Atlanta and Dallas has is at or higher than cities like SF Bay Area, NYC Metro, etc and that demand is supplied because developers can freely build new housing whereas there are limits that developers can build in the SF Bay Area and NYC. So as the basic rules states, when supply is equal or greater than demand, this either flattens housing values or starts dropping them. When demand is not satisfied, that creates competition for housing which increases housing values as buyers are fighting each other for houses, apartments, and condos.

Atlanta and Dallas essentially sprawling into oblivion has essentially allowed them to stay cheap. If SF Bay Area began sprawling uncontrollably and allowed developers to go bonkers, it would probably be able to satisfy the housing demand which would flatten or drop housing values, but they won't do that.

You can easily see it with the current year to date housing permits issued for Metropolitan areas: http://www.census.gov/construction/b...t3yu201604.txt

The usual three southern suspects are at the top for permits issued.
They don't have government doesn't have restrictions in the south YET. Flooding is a problem in Houston. Not sure about Dallas. Atlanta has water shortages. As these places urbanize, the public will start to have the same complaints as they do up north: traffic, density, flooding, school enrollment, etc. It's only a matter of time...
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 06:16 PM
 
10,276 posts, read 8,412,109 times
Reputation: 10644
Quote:
Originally Posted by Perverse Instantiation View Post
You can easily see it with the current year to date housing permits issued for Metropolitan areas: http://www.census.gov/construction/b...t3yu201604.txt

The usual three southern suspects are at the top for permits issued.
The NYC metro built, by far, the most housing units of any metro in the last calendar year, and that region isn't exactly cheap.

I'm not saying that development is irrelevant to housing prices, but I don't think it's a major factor. Those metros (the Atlanta of the world) are cheap because they aren't that desirable to higher income folks, not because there are no growth controls.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-25-2016, 06:23 PM
 
Location: In the heights
29,102 posts, read 28,166,873 times
Reputation: 15589
Going to wager that Chicago is going to get a modest net increase by the 2020 comprehensive census and will see middle of the pack growth by 2030.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S. > City vs. City

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top