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View Poll Results: More potential to become a megacity? (By 2050)
Only the Greater Miami/Fort Lauderdale CSA 36 21.18%
Only the Greater Atlanta CSA 32 18.82%
Both CSAs will become a megacity; Greater Miami/Fort Lauderdale CSA will be the bigger of the two 30 17.65%
Both CSAs will become a megacity; Greater Atlanta CSA will be the bigger of the two 52 30.59%
Neither will ever become megacities 20 11.76%
Voters: 170. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-10-2016, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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Most potential to become a megacity: Greater Miami/Fort Lauderdale (CSA) or Greater Atlanta (CSA)?

Here is the definition of megacity:
Quote:
A megacity is usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of ten million people (10,000,000 people). A megacity can be a single metropolitan area or two or more metropolitan areas that converge. The terms conurbation, metropolis and metroplex are also applied to the latter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity
Combined Statistical Area (CSA), 2015:
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL Combined Statistical Area: 6,654,565
- Atlanta-Athens-Clarke-Sandy Springs Combined Statistical Area: 6,365,108

1970:
- Miami/Fort Lauderdale (CSA): 2,362,981
- Atlanta (CSA): 2,146,086

2015:
- Miami/Fort Lauderdale (CSA): 6,654,565
- Atlanta (CSA): 6,365,108

Change in 45 years:
- Miami/Fort Lauderdale (CSA): + 4,291,584
- Atlanta (CSA): + 4,219,022

Which one (or both) will more than likely be a megacity by midcentury (2050)? You're free to say "both" but then make sure to state which one will be the bigger of the two.
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Old 07-10-2016, 01:04 PM
 
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Both the cities will grow rapidly for the foreseeable feature Miami because of migration from Latin America and Atlanta because of internal migration. But my vote goes for Atlanta because of it's diverse economy and it's role as a transportation hub..
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Old 07-10-2016, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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I think both will surpass the threshold and become megacities.

Looking at megacity trends, until just recently, all of the world's megacities had at minimum one of two things in common; either they were the national capital of the country or they were a metropolis either on the coast or within an hour or less from the coast (so basically coastal anyways).

This was just only recently disproven when some interior/inland Chinese cities became megacities but America isn't China and doesn't have nearly 1.4 billion people. So the trends of urbanization that affect China (or India) don't affect America or the rest of the world. With that idea in mind, logic dictates that Miami has the easier road to passing 10 million than does Atlanta off fundamental characteristics. However, I'm curious to see how long it would take for an interior/inland city such as Atlanta to cross the 10 million barrier nonetheless.

I think with that in mind, while I believe both will become megacities, I think that Greater Miami/Fort Lauderdale CSA will be the bigger of the two but not by much. More or less, I think in midcentury they'll still be how they are now, within close range to each other in population and size. Like present day, I feel Miami gets the edge but that's just me.
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Old 07-10-2016, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Piedmont, CA/São Paulo, Brazil
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I think eventually they both will surpass 10 million but by then, about 5-6 other areas( Chicago, DC, SF, Dallas, Houston and possibly Boston) will have also surpassed that threshold. Philly might be absorbed into NY if the criteria changes as well so who knows.

It's a lot of fun to hypothesize.
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Old 07-10-2016, 01:19 PM
 
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I think both will get there and since it seems like current trends have been in place for about 40 years or so now, I'd say Miami will get there first and Atlanta will follow very soon afterwards. Might be a photo finish.
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Old 07-10-2016, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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An overall synopsis:

- Greater Miami/Fort Lauderdale CSA:
This region will get significantly larger. The 2000s were a down decade for Miami and Southeast Florida yet it still added about 600,000 people. That's Miami's floor in a down decade. What happened was that the housing market collapsed in Southeast Florida a full 18 months prior to it collapsing elsewhere in the United States. The effects of a housing bust were being felt in South Florida as early as late 2005 or early 2006, whereas they surfaced in most of the rest of America at some point in 2007 or 2008. Present day most of Latin America has returned to economical deterioration after posting a successful decade in the 2000s. Currently Brazil is in the worst economic depression of its country's entire history. It's economy has shed from being over $2.3 Trillion USD as recent as 2 years ago to as little as $1.4 Trillion USD today (possibly even lower). That's rapid decline. This is now seeping into surrounding countries as well. Then there is increased violence and narcotic wars all over Central America and northern South America, which has driven Latino immigration into Miami to a whole new height in the 2010s decade. I notice that when Latin America is in economic or social turmoil, Miami tends to immediately benefit with regards to population gain. This is currently the case today, right now, and it is no surprise that Miami's population growth accelerated in the last few years in contrast with years in the prior decade.

As of 2015, Miami's immigration rate is the highest it has ever been in the area's history and will continue to go even higher. The regions annual population growth is now significantly higher than it was over a comparable period of time in the last decade. The same is true of tourism, the same is true of economical growth, the same is true of aviation and airport growth, all across the board South Florida is having itself a far more successful decade right now than the one it had in the 2000s. Essentially the region has returned to form, where it was in the 1990s, 1980s, and 1970s. The coastal location, the converging point of the Americas, and the rapid urbanization (particularly through higher densities and verticality) is take shape in South Florida. I think the Miami/Fort Lauderdale CSA is an easy candidate to surpass 10 million people, I think it will most definitely happen. By 2020, the area will already be 70% or greater of the way there and even with a slowdown, will still pass the threshold.

- Greater Atlanta CSA:
The Southeast Piedmont region of the United States stands to benefit from positive domestic migration trends. What Miami is to Latin Americans is what Atlanta is to certain segments of American born people from the Northeast and Florida (to a lessor extent parts of the Midwest as well). Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas are sandwiched in between the Northeast Corridor and Interior Northeastern United States as well as Florida. The negative domestic migration from these regions tend to become positive migration absorption for these Southeastern cities, in particular Atlanta. Atlanta's population growth is versatile, it gets some from natural increase, some from immigration, but by and large most of its population growth is attributable to domestic migration which is picking back up to pre-recession trends. The region will get back to growing in the manner it has prior to the recession and like Miami, I think a few decades down the road, it will easily cross 10 million people.

Atlanta fundamentally has a few key advantages going for it as well; the more available land around the city to develop on (contrasted with land constrained Miami), much more flexible and affordable housing prices, and more embedded and integrated with mainstream American culture (i.e. Black Hollywood, the South, so on), making the city a bigger domestic draw for a larger pool of Americans than Miami.

Like I mentioned earlier, I think both cross 10 million easily in my lifetime and at some point before midcentury (along with those other cities 18Montclair named - all of those will get there before Miami and Atlanta), however if I had to pick one to give the slightest edge to, I feel it would be Miami.

Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 07-10-2016 at 02:55 PM..
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Old 07-10-2016, 04:02 PM
 
Location: Chicago
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Both of these areas are a long way from become megacities. Even if their CSA population hits 10 million they won't be considered megacities by any sort of world standard. It will be at least another 50-60 years before they become megacities measured by urban area or even MSA.

On another notes, I don't see the DC/Baltimore CSA or Bay Area CSA as true megacities either, even if they hit the 10 million mark.
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Old 07-10-2016, 04:31 PM
 
Location: Just outside of McDonough, Georgia
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Even assuming those 1960-2010 growth rates were maintained for the foreseeable future (which they won't be in all likelihood,) going by OP's definition neither Atlanta nor Miami will be megacities by 2050. Maybe by 2080 assuming nothing catastrophic happens.

- skbl17
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Old 07-10-2016, 05:11 PM
 
Location: Greater Orlampa CSA
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My vote goes to Miami in terms of rate of time and likelihood of reaching that number, but in terms of overall influence? Atlanta, for sure.
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Old 07-10-2016, 08:17 PM
 
Location: Miami, FL
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Miami will max out in 30 or 40 years and dwindle because of limited land availability (already a problem) and rising sea levels.
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