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Old 12-24-2016, 11:21 AM
 
7,132 posts, read 9,070,822 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
Around 60k of those units are within NYC city proper. The NYC metro area outside the city only build ~27k units, which is consistent with fairly stagnant population growth.

NYC city proper is adding people, but it is offset by upstate losing people, so total NYS population growth numbers are low/negative.
Also, expect the 2016 construction numbers for NYC to be lower, since 421a tax breaks for condos were not renewed by DeBlasio and further building restrictions enacted.
No one builds 27k housing units in an area that is stagnant in growth since it would simply be people replacing those moving out. That's nearly as much as Atlanta's 30k housing units that year which was growing at near 100,000 annually(faster than the entire NYC metro).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
New York State is losing people, but New York City and metro is not. NYC is growing its fastest since the 1990s and 1920s.

Actually the entire NYC metro isn't growing that fast. It's growth has been decelerating since the recession. Look at the picture below. It's growth is now below Atlanta and Pheonix in absolute numbers.



If you look at census numbers, NYC grew far more rapidly when the entire country was in a recession because it's domestic migration numbers were a lot better. The theory is that the recession put the brakes on people look to move South or West so having a near 0 domestic growth rate instead of -70,000 annually meant that high immigration rates and high natural increase rate equaled 150k+ annual growth for the NYC metro.

You can see what I'm talking about here: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...xhtml?src=bkmk

Look at how NYC's annual growth goes from 150k between 2010-2011 to just 88k from 2014-2015.

That's why I'm questioning why NYC is permitting 80k+ units, far more than Houston and Dallas where the numbers actaully justify building that many housing units annually.

And if we look at US growth rates between July 2015-2016, immigration has only slowed down throughout the entire country(it's been noted this has been the slowest year for US growth since the 1930s!) and the three states the NYC metro encompass saw very poor growth rates. This tells me that the NYC metro is only continuing to decelerate it's growth as more and more natives flee the area because it's too expensive along with a slowing immigrant growth base(which NYC heavily relies on).
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Old 12-24-2016, 11:27 AM
 
Location: TPA
6,476 posts, read 6,373,548 times
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Im not talking about numbers, but growth rate. In terms of growth rate, yeah, NYC is growing as fast it was in the 90s and 20s, and has passed 8.5 million for the first time. The metro as a whole isnt growing that fast, but the growth is still respectable.

NYC's growth is even more impressive considering how cramped and expensive it is, versus Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, which you have enough room for cul de sac's galore.
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Old 12-24-2016, 11:33 AM
 
821 posts, read 751,385 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Im not talking about numbers, but growth rate. In terms of growth rate, yeah, NYC is growing as fast it was in the 90s and 20s, and has passed 8.5 million for the first time. The metro as a whole isnt growing that fast, but the growth is still respectable.

NYC's growth is even more impressive considering how cramped and expensive it is, versus Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, which you have enough room for cul de sac's galore.
It really makes me wonder how many more people can feasibly cram into the new york metro
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Old 12-24-2016, 11:57 AM
 
Location: St Simons Island, GA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dumbfounded12 View Post
I haven't heard anyone say that.
Maybe not, but we're all thinking it...
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Old 12-24-2016, 12:23 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,982 posts, read 2,066,217 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Im not talking about numbers, but growth rate. In terms of growth rate, yeah, NYC is growing as fast it was in the 90s and 20s, and has passed 8.5 million for the first time. The metro as a whole isnt growing that fast, but the growth is still respectable.

NYC's growth is even more impressive considering how cramped and expensive it is, versus Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, which you have enough room for cul de sac's galore.
I'm not sure how true that is, considering it has gotten less difficult to build skyscrapers and that there are much more densely populated cities in the developed world (Paris and Seoul come to mind).
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Old 12-24-2016, 12:31 PM
 
Location: TPA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parhe View Post
I'm not sure how true that is, considering it has gotten less difficult to build skyscrapers and that there are much more densely populated cities in the developed world (Paris and Seoul come to mind).
Im not exactly sure what youre referring to.
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Old 12-24-2016, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,982 posts, read 2,066,217 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Im not exactly sure what youre referring to.
The idea that NYC's growth is impressive compared to that of Sun belt cities. While it may not be easy for a person to make a skyscraper, their abundance in the world seems to show they aren't nearly as difficult to build as they may have been. There are also much denser wealthy cities so it isn't that a city with New York's current density is pushing into new territory. Paris even did it with a limited number of skyscrapers
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Old 12-24-2016, 12:51 PM
 
8,730 posts, read 6,657,018 times
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I'll say it again: Permits don't equal construction.

Lots of factors play in. Some projects starting now were permitted years ago. Some projects permitting today have no intention of building anytime soon. This sounds strange to outsiders but that's how it works.

PS, the NY CSA must have, guessing, 8,000,000 residences. Just replacing teardowns would be a significant number.
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Old 12-24-2016, 01:33 PM
 
Location: TPA
6,476 posts, read 6,373,548 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parhe View Post
The idea that NYC's growth is impressive compared to that of Sun belt cities. While it may not be easy for a person to make a skyscraper, their abundance in the world seems to show they aren't nearly as difficult to build as they may have been. There are also much denser wealthy cities so it isn't that a city with New York's current density is pushing into new territory. Paris even did it with a limited number of skyscrapers
Why does it have to be compared with these cities? Houston and New York couldn't be any more different.

On it's own, New York City is doing pretty good, which is why I called it "respectable." You could argue that the sunbelt are cities are growing too fast, especially Atlanta.

I honestly don't understand why we're bringing up international cities either. I don't get the point you're trying to make to be honest. Not everyone in New York lives in a skyscraper, but you don't see single family homes being dotted all over the place like Atlanta and Dallas either.

Matter of fact, last I read, the Bronx was actually the fastest growing part of New York City, and what skyscrapers do you see there? All 5 boroughs have grown, even Staten Island.

Bottom line is while New York State as a whole is slowing, New York City is just fine, and if you look at the growth rates, is growing faster now than it did from the 1930 census to the 2000 one. That is impressive.
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Old 12-24-2016, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,982 posts, read 2,066,217 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Why does it have to be compared with these cities? Houston and New York couldn't be any more different.

On it's own, New York is doing pretty good, which is why I called it "respectable." You could argue that the sunbelt are cities are growing too fast, especially Atlanta.

I honestly don't understand why we're bringing up international cities either. I don't get the point you're trying to make to be honest. Not everyone in New York lives in a skyscraper, but you don't see single family homes being dotted all over the place like Atlanta and Dallas either.

Matter of fact, last I read, the Bronx was actually the fastest growing part of New York, and what skyscrapers do you see there?

Bottom line is while New York State as a whole is slowing, New York City is just fine, and if you look at the growth rates, is growing faster now than it did from the 1930 census to the 2000 one. That is impressive.
I was comparing those cities to NYC because you were in a way that made little of their achievement.

"NYC's growth is even more impressive considering how cramped and expensive it is, versus Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, which you have enough room for cul de sac's galore."
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