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Toronto would probably need 30-40 years to fully catch up to Chicago.
Toronto gains around 100k per year, and metro is in the 6-7 million range. Even assuming Toronto continues its strong growth, and assuming Chicago continues to lag, it would still take decades. Chicago is still significantly bigger, richer, more important.
The CSA is derived from the Census, and officially no better or worse than any other metric.
IMO, it's the best apples-to-apples comparison, at least within the U.S.
No its not the best. People argue all the time about what should be and what should not be included in CSA's all the time. To me its useless and UA or Metro is better. I never hear people argue about UA or Metro area. Its only convenient for certian cities to use CSA and alot of the time it includes huge areas of low density emptiness.
Toronto would probably need 30-40 years to fully catch up to Chicago.
Toronto gains around 100k per year, and metro is in the 6-7 million range. Even assuming Toronto continues its strong growth, and assuming Chicago continues to lag, it would still take decades. Chicago is still significantly bigger, richer, more important.
If by city-proper urban population, downtown core population, Toronto has already surpassed Chicago more than 5 years ago back in 2011:
The census by Statistics Canada puts City of Toronto at 2,791,140 in 2011, and Chicago at 2,707,120. Since it's been 5 years, I'd imagine the gap is even bigger now.
I think Chicago's combined CSA/MSA population including its far-flung suburbs will always be bigger and higher than Toronto, even 20, 30 years from now. It's hard to catch up to decades of sprawling suburban expansion. Toronto, however, will always come out ahead in terms city-proper and urban core population.
The CSA is derived from the Census, and officially no better or worse than any other metric.
IMO, it's the best apples-to-apples comparison, at least within the U.S.
Look at this map of the CSA's, do you really think this is a good representation of the populations of metro areas? Urban Area is better because it shows the unbroken urban development, and does not include numbers of people just because they drive from far away to work in the urban area.
Last edited by pointer212; 09-07-2016 at 01:33 PM..
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pointer212
Look at this map of the CSA's, do you really think this is a good representation of the populations of metro areas? Urban Area is better because it shows the unbroken urban development, and does not include numbers of people just because they drive from far away to work in the urban area.
I think it's laughable that San Benito and Santa Cruz counties are part of the Bay Area CSA, especially considering that all San Benito county is is Hollister, and then the Diablo Range!
And only like 5% of San Bernardino Co, 1/3rd of Riverside Co and maybe 1/2 of Ventura Co should really be considered part of the LA CSA
Toronto would probably need 30-40 years to fully catch up to Chicago.
Toronto gains around 100k per year, and metro is in the 6-7 million range. Even assuming Toronto continues its strong growth, and assuming Chicago continues to lag, it would still take decades. Chicago is still significantly bigger, richer, more important.
OK here are some, you know, facts.
Some easily found various government planning stuff here:
9.7 million to 12.0 million is a gain of about 2.3 million, spread over 15 years, or 153K per year (I was working with out-of-date figures, and a lower current population, to hit my quoted 200K, so I apologize for that. But my main point, that GGH will eclipse Chicagoland in a few years is still valid.
That previous link also shows actual GGH population increasing from 7.8 million in 2001 to the current 9.7 million, an average actual increase of about 125K.
OK now what is going on in Chicagoland? Having trouble finding current info. Everything I Google is about Chicago's rapid decline. There is this wiki thing:
The wiki starts by saying Chicagoland population is 9.9 million. That kind of fits with the lower chart saying population in 2000 was 9.3 million and 9.7 million in 2010. From 9.3 to 9.9 (say that is 2015 value) is 0.6 million in 15 years, or about 40K per year, and I understand that is declining.
So in 2020, say, Chicagoland population will be about 9.9 + (40x5) or 10.1 million. The GGH population will be 9.7 + (150x5) or 10.4 million or whatever, and thereafter rapidly outpacing Chicagoland.
Toronto’s growth is guaranteed … the Fed are going to open up the immigration faucets to about 300K per year, and half of those will settle in the GGH.
You can pick nits with this value or that .. but you can’t argue (at least not rationally) with the overall premise.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pointer212
Look at this map of the CSA's, do you really think this is a good representation of the populations of metro areas? Urban Area is better because it shows the unbroken urban development, and does not include numbers of people just because they drive from far away to work in the urban area.
Urban area too has its flaws as a metric, and there is no consistent explanation for density levels/ what defines "urban". Its definitions are very vague. You can have a pretty solidly urban suburb, and a town 10 miles down the road with less density that may or may not be included into the urban area. If it's not included then we have to make believe that the town does not exist, when in reality it does. On top of this you may go another 10 miles down the road and have a new town with heavy density that is part of a separate urban area, all in a 30 mile stretch.
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