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I live in the real world too. The real world where the areas surrounding Baltimore and Washington combined (in which people cross commute daily) are about to surpass Chicago and its surrounding areas in population in about four years. I'm not touting this nor do I really care, as I said Chicago is one big city all by itself, but in reality this is whats bound to happen. Nothing for people to feel any type of way about it.
and point is adding these at best takes it to 7 or so million not 9, and that is liberal it just so happens that they are close and overlap with commuters, nothing different then NJ in between NYC and Philly, well except far more people in the space between NYC and Philly which still doesn't make them the same place just grew and developed with an overlap
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,565,972 times
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Originally Posted by kidphilly
so on paper the CSA will be bigger Chicago is a significantly larger city then either Cook county is nearly the size of either the DC msa or inner bay alone and spending time in Chicago you in reality realize how much larger a city Chicago is compared to DC or SF. If you need to count Sterling VA and Bel Air MD to claim larger then Chicago you are not bigger, reality. If you need to include non inner bay (population at best at 5.8 million) with peripheral commuter locales again you are smaller.
CSA fails to estimate actual urban area. it captures a lot of far flung commuter counties
Chicago today and tomorrow is leaps and bounds larger than either DC or SF at the CSA level, the other two get comparable when adding far flung commuter counties that have no core of their own.
For DC add Howard and Anne Arundal and you still far smaller or for the bay take all the inner bay counties of SF and SJ and again you are still far smaller. resident you love to add Baltimore on CSA population then in the same breath dismiss Baltimore which is it?
DC beating Chicago CSA in population is like Houston or Phoenix saying they are a bigger city when compared to Philly on paper yes in reality no
So claim CSA as a bragging right to me CSA is the most useless census measure that exists
much of which is based on where county lines are drawn which is arbitrary but I guess serves a purpose for some people to feel beter.
Which is larger DC, SF or Chicago? hmm easy answer though if you want to say the people in Hancock MD and harve de grace (Closer to city hall in Philly then the capital in DC) put DC over edge enjoy and have it. Or if including Stockton and people that commute ( a minority into Santa clara and not the Fidi again have at it). CSA is liberal beyond belief though will still say the inner bay should be one MSA and functions as such. DC does not (parts of howard and Anne Arundal sure but come on no one is moving to Vienna to commute to Baltimore and no one is moving to Bel Air to commute to Herndon get a grip
Chicago carries counties and towns just outside Milwaukee and half way across Illinois, again CSA over reach is not unique to one metro.
Both areas do have a more "more urbanized location" where the bulk of the population lives. Most of the population and commerce happening in DC-Baltimore region is along I-95 corridor give or take 25-30 miles in each direction.
In the real world, BILLIONS of dollars of earned income leaves one MSA and is spent paying mortgages, car notes, etc in another MSA.
That's very much 'real-life' and that affects both MSAs no?
and on this this is the same logic when I say the overlap creates dollars and value for close places. When I say Philly is under represented especially on wealth you argue it only counts when included in a CSA or MSA. Then why are the border CSA and MSA counties on both the Philly and NYC sides some of the wealthiest in the country. If Bucks county or Hunterdon NJ etc have 28% and 22% going either way why only say the 28% matters etc. for commuters.
NYC and Philly with Mercer in between overlap and both areas get the wealth generated from the very high paying jobs. Hunterdon is as wealthy as bay area counties, even moreso then many on this border. I grew up close to the border and spent time in both MSAs without even realizing because they are not distinct in reality nor are the dollars
the inner Bay is one and is an issue with the census criteria no doubt Stockton, not so much it just has a commuter element not the same place just as Doylestown and Pennington are not the same place though even closer mileage wise
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,565,972 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
and point is adding these at best takes it to 7 or so million not 9, and that is liberal it just so happens that they are close and overlap with commuters, nothing different then NJ in between NYC and Philly, well except far more people in the space between NYC and Philly which still doesn't make them the same place just grew and developed with an overlap
DC-Baltimore is much more of one CSA than NY/Philly...Some areas in Central NJ may resemble some areas in Central MD in terms of suburban style, but there is much more immediate connectivity in Maryland. Where Howard and Anne Arundel counties immediately tap the doorstep of development in Montgomery and Prince George's.
As a CSA, yes of course the Balt/DC CSA will pass Chicago.
Despite all the debating in the last ten pages, the DC and Baltimore area is very much intertwined as one very large metroplex. While DC and Baltimore maintain very independent cultures and even economies, the two cities share a region with overlapping suburbs and even people that commute from one core city to the to other.
I live in Annapolis and it's like 50/50 around there as to which city people relate to most and most people seem to go both ways with what sports teams they follow etc. The commuting patterns from Annapolis are interesting. US-50 to Washington is much busier than I-97 is to Baltimore despite Annapolis technically being part of the Baltimore MSA. I know lots of people that commute clear to NOVA and know lots of people in the immediate suburbs of DC like Silver Spring that commute from Fed Hill in Baltimore etc. There are commuter buses from Annapolis to DC, but not to Baltimore, yet Anne Arundel County has light rail to Baltimore from its northern parts and contains Baltimore/"Washington" airport.
My point is that this area really does act as one big place even though it has two heads. And NYC/Philly as a combined area is ridiculous. That is not a metroplex like DC/Baltimore is, not even close and I don't get why it's always brought up. That is two very different areas of the NE corridor. I'm sure a few people might commute between one MSA and the other, but it's nothing like DC/Baltimore.
However, regardless of stats, Chicago will always big a bigger "city".
Chicago carries counties and towns just outside Milwaukee and half way across Illinois, again CSA over reach is not unique to one metro.
Both areas do have a more "more urbanized location" where the bulk of the population lives. Most of the population and commerce happening in DC-Baltimore region is along I-95 corridor give or take 25-30 miles in each direction.
drive 95 and the area north and south of Chicago and you tell me which is larger I have been in Chicago 50 times and lived in DC and you are insane if you think is the same other then some bogus census metric Chicago is vastly larger then DC, I mean reality is they are not even close
cook county is 5.3 million in 1.3K miles I am not talking about far flung counties
DC at best gets to 7 million with AA and Howard county population arguable
also the afr flung areas include no one, the populous that reaches 8 or million is packed tight not on the other side of another city where no one is part the next cities population
its like saying Boston is bigger when include PVD etc CSA is way to large NYC and Philly make the census criteria for one CSA today, which to me shows why it doesn't work
MSA has the biggest issue with the Bay, the inner bay at about 5.5 million should be one MSA plus a little
How often do you go to any county not anne Arundal? I probably spend as much time on the Baltimore MSA as many in DC do, Annapolis is great people drive from Columbia to greenbelt and that makes it one, come on
its like saying people drive from Newtown PA to west Windsor NJ so the Philly msa and NYC msa must be one, its just as close basically
have DC and Baltimore grown together in the middle burbs, yes does that make them one place, no
Do you really believe that not one thread about the DC area taking the 3rd rank from Chicago would have been created on city data by now if it were this close?
Well I was just answering the question objectively.
The question was "will Washington DC-Baltimore CSA surpass the Chicago CSA in population?". The answer to that question is yes, yes it will. It isn't boosting, it's just a fact, unless Chicago turns things around it will be passed. It has 5 years to dramatically turn things around, give or take.
Also, I've made several threads specifically about that already and have been doing it for years. In addition to several threads about it, I've also made other comparison threads where population growth of CSA was a criteria factor.
To your point about how dramatic of a change it would be to see Chicago move down from third in any metric after 100-150 years of being in the Top 3, I've expressed shock at that too already (a few years ago);
People on C-D are really trying to out smart the Census, like they create these metrics for no reason.
People on C-D like to pick and choose parts of the Census that fit their argument.
For example, when it comes to the Census classifying Maryland and DC as the South, the Census is useless and antiquated. For other arguments, the Census is the ultimate source.
I think the real questions here is does it really matter? Chicago is still obviously the larger city and if/when Chicago/Milwaukee combine forces this discussion will be put to rest (until Balt-DC eventually comes for Philly, unless NYC gets there first). The Chicago-Milwaukee CSA will probably be around 14-15 million when it happens...
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