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Do you really believe that not one thread about the DC area taking the 3rd rank from Chicago would have been created on city data by now if it were this close?
3. Chicago-Naperville: 9,923,358
4. Washington DC-Baltimore-Arlington DC-ML-VA-WV: 9,625,360
The numbers are this close but this is the first thread that is made about this? The Chicago area has long been America's 3rd largest. There are many threads about Houston or Dallas overtaking Chicago in like 2020 that are from 2010 and earlier. There would of been threads years ago if this was going to happen. Do you really think that its only 300k behind Chicago, and it just caught the worlds most popular city forum off guard? I could understand it if the Chicago area went through something like the Detroit area and the DC area went through an unprecedented growth spurt. This did not happen. Even if it did there would be numerous threads on here and articles online. The reason why there are none is because the metrics that you are using are overinflated to the point of absurdity. Nobody uses these metrics to rank the population centers, that's why this story is not widely published online, on this forum or anywhere else. Show me one article about this happening anywhere online or on this forum. Even if there was a 1% chance of this happening things would be published somewhere online years ago. They are not published because it was impossible to achieve this without inflating numbers by using the wrong metric. Do you really think we are the first ones in the world to publish a story of this magnitude?
The DC area taking over the 3rd spot of largest population in America is one of if not the most important things this forum has lived through with regards to population. Chicago has been Americas 2nd or 3rd largest area for over 120 years. Can you think of anything more important that happened to America with regards to population since this forum was created? This must be the most epic American city data forum thread of all time? I would actually like it if the DC area took over the 3rd spot, i think its time for changes. But now is just not that time.
I think a problem is that many keep on saying "the DC area" when in actuality it is the DC-Baltimore CSA, and only at that level, that they are comparable in size (population, GDP, etc.). They haven't been that far apart in size and GDP at CSA level for a while now. But is it the case at the city or MSA level? No--using those measures DC is far behind in regard to poulation, GDP, etc. Only when you reach the CSA level are DC-Baltimore comparable to Chicagoland. I don't think many people see changes at that level worth dissecting, but it certainly has been mentioned when GDP at the CSA levels became SF-San Jose>DC-Baltimore>Chicagoland.
I think a problem is that many keep on saying "the DC area" when in actuality it is the DC-Baltimore CSA, and only at that level, that they are comparable in size (population, GDP, etc.). They haven't been that far apart in size and GDP at CSA level for a while now. But is it the case at the city or MSA level? No--using those measures DC is far behind in regard to poulation, GDP, etc. Only when you reach the CSA level are DC-Baltimore comparable to Chicagoland. I don't think many people see changes at that level worth dissecting, but it certainly has been mentioned when GDP at the CSA levels became SF-San Jose>DC-Baltimore>Chicagoland.
Yea, when going by CSA's, DC-Baltimore is right behind Chicago. But like i said in my previous posts its a flawed metric that isn't even worth discussing when talking about population ranks. It just confuses people into thinking the conventional urban area is way more populated than it really is.
Take Miami's CSA for example. It includes metro areas such as Port St. Lucie and Vero Beach. Those should definitely not be counted in any population count related to South Florida. Those 2 alone add over 600k to the Miami's CSA. And Miami is one of the cities that the CSA is closest to the UA urban area because there is absolutely nothing around it. Imagine how many far off cities and towns are counted in the CSA of a metro in a dense northeastern state with cities all around not connected to it.
Look at satellite view on google maps of the DC area. The CSA goes all the way to West Virginia and to Pennsylvania. There are dozens of cities with 20k to 200k population included in that CSA that are super far from DC and Baltimore that have huge areas of empty land in between. Theres no way those should count towards the population. Thats the reason why the UA urban area population is so much lower than the CSA population.
Does anyone really think that the DC-Baltimore area has the same population of South Florida and the Seattle metro combined? Because thats what people are implying in this thread when they say the DC-Baltimore metro area has 9.6 million people. Its the CSA that has 9.6 millon, not the metro area. CSA's are huge and some are 250 miles long. Its a joke to use them and only confuses people who dont know any better and only helps certian areas when its convenient.
I wish people would name one reason why anyone uses CSA's instead of MSA metro areas or UA urban areas. There literally is none. We all know which metros to add together by now. Just add the LA metro to Riversides, DC's to Baltimore's, and San Frans to San Joses.
I can link hundreds of articles and forum threads that say people think another city will dethrone Chicago as the 3rd rank, but never once have i seen the same thing said about the DC area. Take a look.
I mean lets give Chicago credit where its due. Cook county alone has 5.2 million people. Its a dense, tightly clustered urban area thats been the 2nd or 3rd largest population center for over 120 years. That kind of thing doesn't change that quickly and people all over the U.S. would take notice if it was going to anytime soon, including the media and this forum. Are you saying we just broke this amazing story? It's because people dont just make bold claims without having anything to back it up other than a flawed metric not even intended to compare the metro area populations. Its not just Houston overtaking Dallas or something, its an amazingly huge deal. (120 years huge)
Last edited by pointer212; 09-11-2016 at 07:51 AM..
Do you really believe that not one thread about the DC area taking the 3rd rank from Chicago would have been created on city data by now if it were this close?
DC and Baltimore are 2 metro areas that create mental whiplash for a lot of people.
I don't think most people who are not from the area can really put their finger on what's it's about.
DC and Baltimore are 2 metro areas that create mental whiplash for a lot of people.
I don't think most people who are not from the area can really put their finger on what's it's about.
I think it's just harder for people to think at the CSA level, especially when these 2 cities operate so independently. If you listen to any of the Baltimore news station, DC is hardly ever mentioned (on the DC side, the news seems to be a little more inclusive of Baltimore). So it's hard for people to think of these 2 cities as being combined at the CSA level.
Also, as a poster above mentioned, even in this thread, it seems like the terms "DC area" and "DC-Baltimore area" have both been used to describe the DC-Baltimore CSA, which can be confusing (especially when the term "DC area" is used).
2015 CSA Population Counts with growth percentage since 2010
1. New York-Newark NY-NJ-CT-PA: 23,723,626 (2.80%)
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach: 18,679,763 (4.49%)
3. Chicago-Naperville: 9,923,358 (0.84%)
4. Washington DC-Baltimore-Arlington DC-ML-VA-WV: 9,625,360 (6.33%)
5. San Francisco Bay Area: 8,713,914 (6.87%)
Will the DC-Balimore metro overtake Chicagos to become the 3rd biggest?
Which One Is the better CSA in your opinion?
Why is Chicago growing so slowly?
Side Question: Will the Washington DC and Baltimore ever become twin cities such as Dallas-Ft.Worth and Minneapolis-St.Paul?
Ok, so Baltimore is about to be a larger metro than Chicago, correct? Only NYC and LA will be larger than Baltimore.... Let's let that breathe for a minute.
Why does that surprise you? Now, if it were on the strength of Baltimore alone, then I see your point. But considering that DC is driving the change it shouldn't surprise you in the least.
This thread is comparing CSA's. It is a overinflated metric that includes huge areas of low density land. If you look at the thread below you can see that most people think the CSA is the worst metric to go by when comparing metro areas except city proper. The CSA is useless when trying to get a feel of population centers since it includes huge areas of emptiness and low density.
Take a look how huge the CSA areas are below. The DC-Baltimore CSA area is close to the same size of NYC, an area with almost 3 times the population. Its a ridiculous metric to go by.
Even when going by MSA metro areas its the same thing below. Look at how large the MSA of DC-Baltimore is compared to NYC's. Just the fact that its almost the same size as NYC's makes these metrics useless. Do you understand how much low density is added to the MSA of DC? Its unreal.
The next map below is population density. Of course there's going to be a huge jump in population when you start adding parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia and everything around to your area, especially in the Northeast. Just look how the Chicago high density population covers a larger area, not to mention how much denser the actual city of Chicago's is. I can see how the DC-Baltimore area might be considered the 4th largest, but to say its almost the same population as the Chicago metro and its about to take the 3rd rank over Chicago is just absurd.
Five out of six threads on City Data seem to be obsessed with comparing CSAs.
I think it's just harder for people to think at the CSA level, especially when these 2 cities operate so independently. If you listen to any of the Baltimore news station, DC is hardly ever mentioned (on the DC side, the news seems to be a little more inclusive of Baltimore). So it's hard for people to think of these 2 cities as being combined at the CSA level.
Does the DC area and the Baltimore area function independently? Or is there a seamless transition between the two?
The answer is "both." That's just one of the things that throw people off.
I think it's just harder for people to think at the CSA level, especially when these 2 cities operate so independently. If you listen to any of the Baltimore news station, DC is hardly ever mentioned (on the DC side, the news seems to be a little more inclusive of Baltimore). So it's hard for people to think of these 2 cities as being combined at the CSA level.
Also, as a poster above mentioned, even in this thread, it seems like the terms "DC area" and "DC-Baltimore area" have both been used to describe the DC-Baltimore CSA, which can be confusing (especially when the term "DC area" is used).
It's hard to think on the CSA level, because CSA's are meaningless, irl. No one in Pennsylvania believes they live in the DC metro area.
This CSA thing has gotten completely out of hand. Even in Ohio they bring it up. I had someone in Dayton OH use their CSA to justify to me how the city was bigger than Cincinnati. WTF.
The "DC area" is DC and Northern Virginia. That's it. All of this throwing West Virginia, etc in there needs to stop. Baltimore is it's own city with it's own area. You have some in between areas in Maryland that you could throw in, like Silver Spring, etc but that's it. There's a reason that isn't recognized as a distinctive region of the state, like Northern Virginia. Bulk of the DC area is the city proper and Northern Virginia. Clearly, Northern Virginia, which may as well be it's own state culturally bears nothing in common with the rest of Virginia. On the other hand it has it's own jobs and you can live, work, and play in Northern Virginia without ever traveling into DC now. Not sure if it was that way 40 years ago, but it is now.
Bottom line is when you peel back all of those layers you aren't anywhere close to Chicagoland. DC and Baltimore are two cities that, at best, are closer to 2/3 the population of Chicago proper. The average individual is never going to see that in the same way that they see Chicago, and visually, it will never have a similar aesthetic as Chicago in our lifetimes. I don't even like Chicago, I'm more partial to New York, but I have to give credit where it is due.
Wake me up when either city has surpassed a million in population in their core. We see this same rhetoric on C-D on the Atlanta forums it is absolutely ridiculous if the city is so great then why can't people live inside of the city proper as opposed to driving in from suburbia.
As sh_ as Hampton Roads is at least we have conterminous borders with the counties which eliminates a lot of the CSA confusion. The City proper, for each of the seven cities, is the MSA, and Hampton Roads is the CSA. No one in their right mind perceives Hampton Roads as a city with over a million people. Now Fairfax County, on the other hand ...
Last edited by goofy328; 09-11-2016 at 09:21 AM..
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