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America's next metropolis to exceed 100,000+ people a year in population growth?
I'll start off by giving a list of cities that will be excluded from this thread since they have already earned this distinction before. So New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, San Francisco, Washington DC, Miami, Atlanta, and Phoenix are all excluded from this thread altogether.
All of these PCSAs have grown by over 100,000 people in a single year before, all of them have done it multiple years, and the majority of them have done it for decades on out. So they're all excluded. Any of these places doing 100,000+ people a year in population growth wouldn't exactly be a shock here.
That being said, here are the options, and I want to keep it to boomtowns today since they would be the most likely to do it in the future.
You are free to use CSA if you want to for places that have a CSA.
- Austin
- Charlotte
- Denver
- Las Vegas
- Nashville
- Orlando
- Portland
- Raleigh/Durham
- Sacramento
- Salt Lake City
- San Antonio
- San Diego
- Seattle
- Tampa
I think all of these metros will slow down eventually since they're getting more expensive. Whenever people move to a place at a fast pace, the COL goes up to compensate for all the growth. Rent has gone up like crazy in most of these such as Denver because housing can't keep up. Seattle has the advantage since the income tax is exempt in WA as well as the cities in TX. Austin is growing the best out of these cities IMO. Williamson, Hays, and Travis counties population is exploding ATM. Williamson County population has increased by 30% in 5 years which is crazy. Raleigh and Charlotte are in the top 5, hence why NC is one of the fastest growing states right now. Las Vegas has been slowing down but it's still growing. San Diego and areas near the Mexican border are doing well at attracting foreigners. Tucson is another example that's not apart of this list.
How does a city grow that much in one year - annexation?
It's not about the cities, it's about the metros.
That said, in order to grow 100K a year, a metro has to have the right balance of base population and growth rate.
If a metro is 2 million, it needs a 5% annual growth rate. Today, that combination just isn't happening anywhere.
If it's a metro of 3 million, it needs more than a 3% annual growth rate. Austin comes close to an annualized growth rate of 3% but it lacks the base population.
If Austin merged with San Antonio, they could probably achieve that annual growth. The same could be said for Tampa Bay and Orlando.
Other than those, I just don't see it happening in any of these metros in the near future.
These are the best years for the cities mentioned:
- Austin- grew by 71,553 in 2001
- Charlotte- grew by 76,914 in 2007
- Denver - grew by 88,854 in 2010
- Las Vegas grew by 77,336 in 1997
- Nashville - grew by 42,087 in 2006
- Orlando - grew by 77,717 in 2005
- Portland- grew by 61,026 in 1991
- Raleigh- grew by 42,687 in 2008 (32,744 in 2011)
- Durham grew by 11,653 in 2011 (11,220 in 2008)
- Sacramento - grew by 78,301 in 1990
- Salt Lake City - grew by 25,750 in 1991
- San Antonio - grew by 60,033 in 2006
- San Diego - grew by 88,975 in 2008
- Seattle - grew by 71,569 in 1991
- Tampa - grew by 81,500 in 1973
Looks like Denver and San Diego came closest most recently.
I think all of these metros will slow down eventually since they're getting more expensive. Whenever people move to a place at a fast pace, the COL goes up to compensate for all the growth. Rent has gone up like crazy in most of these such as Denver because housing can't keep up. Seattle has the advantage since the income tax is exempt in WA as well as the cities in TX. Austin is growing the best out of these cities IMO. Williamson, Hays, and Travis counties population is exploding ATM. Williamson County population has increased by 30% in 5 years which is crazy. Raleigh and Charlotte are in the top 5, hence why NC is one of the fastest growing states right now. Las Vegas has been slowing down but it's still growing. San Diego and areas near the Mexican border are doing well at attracting foreigners. Tucson is another example that's not apart of this list.
How is Austin growing the best? It's crazy expensive now and the traffic is horrendous.
Tell me the difference between the Tampa Bay "Area" and the MSA.
One is used by the census to track official population statistics, the other is used by local government to track area population to monitor growth for things like transportation.
Every city does it. Some cities exclude counties that are in the metro while including counties that are not.
Either way Tampa's growth in the last 25 years has not been all that.
As for Austin, in the last decade it had been growing in the 40 to 60 range but certainly not the closest to 100K. That would be Denver.
What's up with 2010? No MSA made it to 100K that year.
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