Which City Will Regain Its Historical High Population First? (state, rates, Boston)
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Location: Watching half my country turn into Gilead
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All four of these cities underwent decades of white flight, suburbanization and urban decay, as did many cities in this country. Even New York City posted a double digit population loss by percentage in the 1980s before rebounding. Like New York, all four of these cities are now on a big upswing in population growth. Taking into account all factors (growth rates, past historical high, economy, geographic location, etc), which of these four do you think will pass their highmark first?
2016 Population (growth rate since 2010 in parenthesis):
Boston 673,184 (9%)
Jersey City 264,152 (6.7%)
Minneapolis 413,651 (8.1%)
Washington D.C. 681,170 (13.2%)
Historical High Population:
Boston 801,444 (1950)
Jersey City 316,715 (1930)
Minneapolis: 521,718 (1950)
Washington D.C. 802,178 (1950)
Ground to cover:
Boston 128,260
Jersey City 51,563
Minneapolis 108,067
Washington D.C. 121,008
I'm surprised so few are voting for Jersey City. I don't love that city, but its recent growth has been pretty impressive. And it doesn't have that far to get to its historical high.
All four of these cities underwent decades of white flight, suburbanization and urban decay, as did many cities in this country. Even New York City posted a double digit population loss by percentage in the 1980s before rebounding. Like New York, all four of these cities are now on a big upswing in population growth. Taking into account all factors (growth rates, past historical high, economy, geographic location, etc), which of these four do you think will pass their highmark first?
2016 Population (growth rate since 2010 in parenthesis):
Boston 673,184 (9%)
Jersey City 264,152 (6.7%)
Minneapolis 413,651 (8.1%)
Washington D.C. 681,170 (13.2%)
Historical High Population:
Boston 801,444 (1950)
Jersey City 316,715 (1930)
Minneapolis: 521,718 (1950)
Washington D.C. 802,178 (1950)
Ground to cover:
Boston 128,260 @48.4 m2 of land or 2650 ppl/m2
Jersey City 51,563 @14.8m2 of land or 3484 ppl/m2
Minneapolis 108,067 @54.9m2 of land or 1968 ppl/m2
Washington D.C. 121,008 @61m2 of land or 1984 ppl/m2
Added a little context embedded in the OP.
Given the density distance each city has to attain to regain peak population, it would seem likely that WDC or Minneapolis would get there first. Jersey City would need to have just massive amount of high rise housing delivered to offset its tiny footprint.
Added a little context embedded in the OP.
Given the density distance each city has to attain to regain peak population, it would seem likely that WDC or Minneapolis would get there first. Jersey City would need to have just massive amount of high rise housing delivered to offset its tiny footprint.
This is exactly what is happening there. JC is exploding with new highrises. It's actually kind of insane. Developers in JC are really taking advantage of those sweet Manhattan views.
Math points to D.C. but I'm going to go out on a limb and say MPLS. 0% growth from 2000-2010, 8.1% growth just from 2010-2016. That's actually quite a remarkable shift. If that momentum keeps up I can see it getting there before the rest.
No chance DC gets there. They have the tightest building restrictions and singles/childless couples are displacing larger families. Jersey City is the only city that will reclaim peak population.
I think I'm going to bet on Jersey City too. It may be growing at a smaller %, but it only needs about 50,000 more to reach its former peak. That's about the size of an average suburban town. If JC keeps exploding at the current rate that it is now, I think it could get there by 2020.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands
No chance DC gets there. They have the tightest building restrictions and singles/childless couples are displacing larger families. Jersey City is the only city that will reclaim peak population.
Haha! Can't wait to repost this when it happens in about 12-13 years.
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