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I thought this would be pretty interesting since most people only focus on the major cities when talking about crime. I was more curious as to which major metropolitan areas (population 1M+) had the highest and lowest crime rates OUTSIDE of the major city. I calculated this from the FBI's 2016 UCR data. So for example, the rate listed for Los Angeles would be the Los Angeles MSA minus the city of Los Angeles. There are a few on here without complete data like Boston. St. Louis did not have complete data for Overall Violent Crime.
Violent crime is defined as Homicide, Robbery, Rape, and Aggravated Assault combined.
Overall Violent Crime Rate, 2016, per 100K (reflects the MSA minus the major city).
1. Las Vegas: 550.23 per 100,000 people
2. Orlando: 461.5
3. Miami: 454.27
4. San Francisco: 424.6
5. Virginia Beach: 422.42
6. Baltimore: 406.63
7. Riverside, CA: 387.07
8. Memphis: 380.6
9. Los Angeles: 372.81
10. Nashville: 352.42
11. Houston: 343.35
12. Atlanta: 342.68
13. New Orleans: 327.02
14. Tampa: 317.2
15. Salt Lake City: 308.19
16. Denver: 302.4
17. Phoenix: 299.25
18. San Diego: 295.56
19. Seattle: 294.57
20. Providence: 282.49
21. Detroit: 280.81
22. Sacramento: 270.44
23. Dallas: 269.53
24. Jacksonville: 262
25. Grand Rapids, MI: 259.13
26. Philadelphia: 257.1
27. Austin: 237.58
28. Oklahoma City: 233.91
29. San Antonio: 217.48
30. Pittsburgh: 215.95
31. Indianapolis: 210.37
32. Buffalo: 204.32
33. Portland: 198.61
34. Washington DC: 197.84
35. New York: 193.69
36. Minneapolis: 178.59
37. San Jose: 178.11
38. Chicago: 177.42
39. Cleveland: 171.18
40. Louisville: 167.29
41. Tucson: 166.85
42. Cincinnati: 152.67
43. Rochester, NY: 135.64
44. Hartford, CT: 120.19
45. Milwaukee: 117.11
46. Columbus, OH: 111.82
Please note below that for Virginia Beach, even if we also got rid of Norfolk AND Newport News, it would still be the highest homicide rate (7.94 per 100K).
Homicide Rate, 2016, per 100K (reflects the MSA minus the major city)
1. Virginia Beach: 11.24 per 100K
2. Memphis: 7.68
3. New Orleans: 7.54
4. Las Vegas: 6.39
5. Atlanta: 5.36
6. Miami: 5.3
7. Orlando: 5.21
8. Riverside, CA: 5.21
9. St. Louis: 5.01
10. San Francisco: 4.77
11. Philadelphia: 4.6
12. Houston: 4.18
13. Los Angeles: 4.13
14. San Antonio: 4.1
15. Tucson: 3.92
16. Phoenix: 3.58
17. Baltimore: 3.53
18. Salt Lake City: 3.41
19. Tampa: 3.37
20. Dallas: 3.34
21. Cleveland: 3.24
22. Jacksonville: 3.2
23. Indianapolis: 3.16
24. Denver: 3.09
25. Pittsburgh: 3.03
26. Sacramento: 3.02
27. Oklahoma City: 3.01
28. Chicago: 2.97
29. Nashville: 2.85
30. Austin: 2.82
31. New York: 2.76
32. San Diego: 2.68
33. Seattle: 2.64
34. Washington DC: 2.5
35. Louisville: 2.49
36. Detroit: 2.37
37. Cincinnati: 2.36
38. Providence: 2.02
39. Portland: 1.56
40. Milwaukee: 1.54
41. Grand Rapids, MI: 1.41
42. Columbus, OH: 1.36
43. Minneapolis: 1.34
44. Buffalo: 1.26
45. San Jose: 1.16
46. Hartford, CT: 1
47. Rochester, NY: 0.92
I thought this would be pretty interesting since most people only focus on the major cities when talking about crime. I was more curious as to which major metropolitan areas (population 1M+) had the highest and lowest crime rates OUTSIDE of the major city. I calculated this from the FBI's 2016 UCR data. So for example, the rate listed for Los Angeles would be the Los Angeles MSA minus the city of Los Angeles. There are a few on here without complete data like Boston. St. Louis did not have complete data for Overall Violent Crime.
Violent crime is defined as Homicide, Robbery, Rape, and Aggravated Assault combined.
Overall Violent Crime Rate, 2016, per 100K (reflects the MSA minus the major city).
1. Las Vegas: 550.23 per 100,000 people
2. Orlando: 461.5
3. Miami: 454.27
4. San Francisco: 424.6
5. Virginia Beach: 422.42
6. Baltimore: 406.63
7. Riverside, CA: 387.07
8. Memphis: 380.6
9. Los Angeles: 372.81
10. Nashville: 352.42
11. Houston: 343.35
12. Atlanta: 342.68
13. New Orleans: 327.02
14. Tampa: 317.2
15. Salt Lake City: 308.19
16. Denver: 302.4
17. Phoenix: 299.25
18. San Diego: 295.56
19. Seattle: 294.57
20. Providence: 282.49
21. Detroit: 280.81
22. Sacramento: 270.44
23. Dallas: 269.53
24. Jacksonville: 262
25. Grand Rapids, MI: 259.13
26. Philadelphia: 257.1
27. Austin: 237.58
28. Oklahoma City: 233.91
29. San Antonio: 217.48
30. Pittsburgh: 215.95
31. Indianapolis: 210.37
32. Buffalo: 204.32
33. Portland: 198.61
34. Washington DC: 197.84
35. New York: 193.69
36. Minneapolis: 178.59
37. San Jose: 178.11
38. Chicago: 177.42
39. Cleveland: 171.18
40. Louisville: 167.29
41. Tucson: 166.85
42. Cincinnati: 152.67
43. Rochester, NY: 135.64
44. Hartford, CT: 120.19
45. Milwaukee: 117.11
46. Columbus, OH: 111.82
Please note below that for Virginia Beach, even if we also got rid of Norfolk AND Newport News, it would still be the highest homicide rate (7.94 per 100K).
Homicide Rate, 2016, per 100K (reflects the MSA minus the major city)
1. Virginia Beach: 11.24 per 100K
2. Memphis: 7.68
3. New Orleans: 7.54
4. Las Vegas: 6.39
5. Atlanta: 5.36
6. Miami: 5.3
7. Orlando: 5.21
8. Riverside, CA: 5.21
9. St. Louis: 5.01
10. San Francisco: 4.77
11. Philadelphia: 4.6
12. Houston: 4.18
13. Los Angeles: 4.13
14. San Antonio: 4.1
15. Tucson: 3.92
16. Phoenix: 3.58
17. Baltimore: 3.53
18. Salt Lake City: 3.41
19. Tampa: 3.37
20. Dallas: 3.34
21. Cleveland: 3.24
22. Jacksonville: 3.2
23. Indianapolis: 3.16
24. Denver: 3.09
25. Pittsburgh: 3.03
26. Sacramento: 3.02
27. Oklahoma City: 3.01
28. Chicago: 2.97
29. Nashville: 2.85
30. Austin: 2.82
31. New York: 2.76
32. San Diego: 2.68
33. Seattle: 2.64
34. Washington DC: 2.5
35. Louisville: 2.49
36. Detroit: 2.37
37. Cincinnati: 2.36
38. Providence: 2.02
39. Portland: 1.56
40. Milwaukee: 1.54
41. Grand Rapids, MI: 1.41
42. Columbus, OH: 1.36
43. Minneapolis: 1.34
44. Buffalo: 1.26
45. San Jose: 1.16
46. Hartford, CT: 1
47. Rochester, NY: 0.92
One thing about these lists... they highlight just how much crime Atlanta and New Orleans have. Memphis, Birmingham, Miami, Jacksonville. I hate to see how high our Southeastern metros rank on these kinds of lists. And no, I don't feel unsafe in Atlanta, but still... I know the city has a real problem. They don't call it the Dirty South for nothing.
Thanks for compiling this. Many on here love to use the metro area to advocate for their cities in ways that cast the city in a positive light, but do not want to talk about the ways in which metro area casts the city/metro in a negative light. I really hate how it’s the metro area for almost everything except crime stats, where it’s only the city that matters. This tells a completely different story than the prevailing narrative.
Some of these metros have some really bad neighborhoods that are outside of the primary city. Some of the worst neighborhoods in the San Francisco metro are in Oakland and other parts of the East Bay. Likewise, while South LA is rough, metro LA has Compton, some rough areas of Long Beach, Inglewood, East LA, Willowbrook, Athens, and the Gateway cities outside LA city limits.
The major city as in the single municipality with the largest population? Assuming there is at least some truth to the stereotype that crime rates are higher in core cities, isn't this unfair for cities with multiple core cities? Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver-Aurora(?), Minneapolis-St. Paul, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario-Corona, San Francisco-Oakland, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and Virginia Beach-Norfolk.
The major city as in the single municipality with the largest population? Assuming there is at least some truth to the stereotype that crime rates are higher in core cities, isn't this unfair for cities with multiple core cities? Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver-Aurora(?), Minneapolis-St. Paul, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario-Corona, San Francisco-Oakland, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and Virginia Beach-Norfolk.
You must have missed my note about Virginia Beach. They have the highest homicide rate even after excluding Virginia Beach, Norfolk, AND Newport News. That is literally removing 51% of the population from the MSA. Now, if you go as far as removing Hampton from that list, then they aren't #1 anymore, but it's still at over 4 per 100K (top 15 highest still) and by then you've removed nearly 59% of the population of the MSA to get the number down that far, which is still relatively high.
Now, as far as other MSAs go...new rankings listed would be if we only calculated each per, independently and didn't change any other MSAs.
San Francisco:
Also removing Oakland
- Violent Crime now: 299 per 100K. 18th highest now, previously 4th. Basically tied with Phoenix.
- Homicide rate now: 2.86 per 100K. 29th highest now, previously 10th. About the same as Nashville and slightly lower than Chicago.
Dallas
Also removing Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, AND Irving (over 40% of the MSA population).
Los Angeles
Also removing Long Beach, Santa Ana, Anaheim, Irvine, and Glendale
- Violent crime now: 373.5 per 100K. No change in ranking (9th highest)
- Homicide rate now: 4.15 per 100K. No change in ranking (13th highest)
Now, if we also remove Compton which doesn't even have 100,000 people then the violent crime rate would go down a little to 363.6 per 100K but LA's ranking would still not change. The homicide rate would go down to 3.73 per 100K which would only drop it 3 places down on the highest list.
Not much change...
Denver
Also removing Aurora
- Violent crime now: 256.3 per 100K. 27th highest now, previously 16th highest
- Homicide rate now: 2.5 per 100K. 35th highest now (tied with DC), previously 25th highest
Phoenix
Also removing Mesa, Scottsdale, Glendale, and Gilbert
For Chicago, I'm not removing anything because the largest city in the MSA outside of Chicago is around 150,000 people. However, if you dropped Gary, IN from it (around 80,000 people) then the homicide rate would go down to 2.32 per 100K 11th lowest, dropping it 10 places from the highest list with a lower rate than Seattle, DC, NYC, Austin, San Diego, etc. Violent Crime rate would go down to 172.6 per 100K though the ranking wouldn't change
Last edited by marothisu; 11-12-2017 at 05:32 AM..
Location: Metro Atlanta (Sandy Springs), by way of Macon, GA
2,014 posts, read 5,102,358 times
Reputation: 2089
Interesting that somewhere like Nashville is ahead of Atlanta. What places outside of the city proper in Nashville's MSA are as dangerous as East Point, College Park, Clayton County, parts of South DeKalb and South Cobb? I've heard of some high crime places outside of the main city for the other metros ahead of Atlanta, so I'm not shocked, but I didnt know that about Nashville.
Interesting that somewhere like Nashville is ahead of Atlanta. What places outside of the city proper in Nashville's MSA are as dangerous as East Point, College Park, Clayton County, parts of South DeKalb and South Cobb? I've heard of some high crime places outside of the main city for the other metros ahead of Atlanta, so I'm not shocked, but I didnt know that about Nashville.
To be honest, for violent crime they're about equal being only off by 10 per 100K since there is simply a much greater occurrence of these things in most areas. The homicide rate though is quite a bit higher in Atlanta area than Nashville when considering how much rarer, statistically, homicides are versus things like assaults.
In places with less crime, people tend to report a larger percentage of assaults and robberies. That's only a theory and obviously hard to really study, but it's a common theory that I find very likely. So I don't buy lists like this.
In places with less crime, people tend to report a larger percentage of assaults and robberies. That's only a theory and obviously hard to really study, but it's a common theory that I find very likely. So I don't buy lists like this.
This "list" is a calculation based on official FBI data. It's not subjective like "best places to retire!" What is your theory based on?
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