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Old 04-07-2018, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Upper West Side, Manhattan, NYC
15,331 posts, read 23,753,676 times
Reputation: 7419

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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOVA_guy View Post
Wow, I wonder what they're doing behind the scenes to help with the drop?
Well, you have to realize that 2016 had a massive increase from the years previous. 2017 started out that way but the last 3 or 4 months of the year decreased a bit and it's continued into this year. It's more of a correction, though so far it's above what something like 2015, 2014, 2013, etc were.

The current totals through March are on par or slightly lower with what the city was every year through March from 2001 to 2004. Of course, what you don't hear on the media because they're too lazy to even do this check, is that almost all of the population loss of Chicago between 2000 and 2010 actually happened between 2000 and 2004. The population since 2005 according to the US Census has been stagnant overall NOT since 2010. Interestingly enough, the number of people employed in the city right now is about the same as it was in the early 2000s when the population was apparently 200K more. Don't be surprised to see in a few years that the estimates right now are slightly low.

Anyway, the average number of homicides per year in the city from 2005 to 2015 (11 years) was 461. 2016 finished with 780 - over 300 above the average. 2017 finished with 671. Now in 2018 at this rate, it's going to maybe finish between 450 and 515 which is much more in line with the average. It's correcting down to the average it was for over a decade before 2016's crazy rise.

Last edited by marothisu; 04-07-2018 at 02:35 PM..
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Old 04-07-2018, 02:57 PM
 
Location: Northeast states
13,962 posts, read 13,726,329 times
Reputation: 5105
Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Well, you have to realize that 2016 had a massive increase from the years previous. 2017 started out that way but the last 3 or 4 months of the year decreased a bit and it's continued into this year. It's more of a correction, though so far it's above what something like 2015, 2014, 2013, etc were.

The current totals through March are on par or slightly lower with what the city was every year through March from 2001 to 2004. Of course, what you don't hear on the media because they're too lazy to even do this check, is that almost all of the population loss of Chicago between 2000 and 2010 actually happened between 2000 and 2004. The population since 2005 according to the US Census has been stagnant overall NOT since 2010. Interestingly enough, the number of people employed in the city right now is about the same as it was in the early 2000s when the population was apparently 200K more. Don't be surprised to see in a few years that the estimates right now are slightly low.

Anyway, the average number of homicides per year in the city from 2005 to 2015 (11 years) was 461. 2016 finished with 780 - over 300 above the average. 2017 finished with 671. Now in 2018 at this rate, it's going to maybe finish between 450 and 515 which is much more in line with the average. It's correcting down to the average it was for over a decade before 2016's crazy rise.
Still high compare to NYC
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Old 04-07-2018, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Upper West Side, Manhattan, NYC
15,331 posts, read 23,753,676 times
Reputation: 7419
Quote:
Originally Posted by BPt111 View Post
Still high compare to NYC
Sure, and nobody mentioned anything about NYC. Not everything being talked about needs NYC inserted into it.
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Old 04-07-2018, 04:18 PM
 
Location: Seoul
11,561 posts, read 9,263,948 times
Reputation: 4655
Quote:
Originally Posted by japster28 View Post
Honestly it seems like a lot of it has to do with the fact that it's still around 30 degrees fahrenheit on the daily here. The thugs and gangbangers stay indoors and do minimal killing when its cold out.

This is probably the longest winter of my life, and it's freaking spring.
You're not wrong, the past week here has been record cold, and the past March has been very very very cold too. Keeps a lot of the gangbangers inside
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Old 04-08-2018, 10:14 AM
 
1,389 posts, read 844,906 times
Reputation: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Well, you have to realize that 2016 had a massive increase from the years previous. 2017 started out that way but the last 3 or 4 months of the year decreased a bit and it's continued into this year. It's more of a correction, though so far it's above what something like 2015, 2014, 2013, etc were.

The current totals through March are on par or slightly lower with what the city was every year through March from 2001 to 2004. Of course, what you don't hear on the media because they're too lazy to even do this check, is that almost all of the population loss of Chicago between 2000 and 2010 actually happened between 2000 and 2004. The population since 2005 according to the US Census has been stagnant overall NOT since 2010. Interestingly enough, the number of people employed in the city right now is about the same as it was in the early 2000s when the population was apparently 200K more. Don't be surprised to see in a few years that the estimates right now are slightly low.

Anyway, the average number of homicides per year in the city from 2005 to 2015 (11 years) was 461. 2016 finished with 780 - over 300 above the average. 2017 finished with 671. Now in 2018 at this rate, it's going to maybe finish between 450 and 515 which is much more in line with the average. It's correcting down to the average it was for over a decade before 2016's crazy rise.
You really do a lot of research to rationalize a murder rate that is just unacceptable. Whether the improvement is coincidental or from a change in policies it’s still way too high. 2001 was too high 2016 was too high and 2018 is too high. That’s 20 years to figure your s**t out.
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Old 04-08-2018, 12:38 PM
 
Location: Upper West Side, Manhattan, NYC
15,331 posts, read 23,753,676 times
Reputation: 7419
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ne999 View Post
You really do a lot of research to rationalize a murder rate that is just unacceptable. Whether the improvement is coincidental or from a change in policies it’s still way too high. 2001 was too high 2016 was too high and 2018 is too high. That’s 20 years to figure your s**t out.
1) I'm not rationalizing anything. Do you know the difference between analysis and rationalization? I don't think you do one bit. Yes, the rate is too high. Nobody said otherwise. Just because I"m explaining that things are going back to normal doesn't mean I don't think that the number is high. These aren't mutually exclusive things.

If someone in sports is going through a really bad slump, but they've been a fairly average player otherwise, pointing out when it looks like they're coming out of a slump doesn't mean you think they're all of a sudden great unless you specifically mention it. Stop putting words in my damn mouth. You completely failed at comprehending what I was actually saying and then implied something that wasn't even there.

2) You also completely missed another point. The point is that at the rate 2018 is going, the city will fall back into its "normalcy" that was between 2005 and 2015, which is QUITE a bit lower than 2001 and 2016. Yes it's too high still, but it's a big ****ing piece of progress in a short period of time from when things spun out of control.
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Old 04-08-2018, 01:14 PM
 
Location: Northeast states
13,962 posts, read 13,726,329 times
Reputation: 5105
NYC 62
LA 61
Chicago 117
Philly 77
Baltimore 66
Detroit 56
Denver 21
Miami 11
Indianapolis 35
Saint Louis 45
Dallas 32
Las Vegas Metro 52
Houston 52
Washington DC 34
Nashville Metro 24
Memphis 26
Louisville Metro 27
Minneapolis 14
Milwaukee 22

Boston Mass 14
San Diego 10
Tulsa, Oklahoma 10
Tucson, Arizona 18
Raleigh, NC 8
Little Rock, Arkansas 14
Fort Worth, Texas 14
Flint, Michigan 10
San Francisco 11
Kansas City, MO 29
Jackson, Mississippi 24
Charlotte, NC 12
Toledo, Ohio 15
Bakersfield, CA 12
Cleveland, Ohio 25

Jacksonville Florida 29
Gary, Indiana 18
Des Moines, Iowa 3
Birmingham, Alabama 29
Albuquerque, New Mexico 19
Cincinnati, Ohio 18
San Jose 7
Portland, Oregon 6
Salt Lake City, Utah 3
Oklahoma City 15
Baton Rouge, Louisiana 29
Richmond, VA 9
Madison, WI 1
Macon, GA 10
Long Beach, CA 7
Compton, CA 4
Tampa, Florida 10
Orlando 13
Arlington, Texas 4
Akron, Ohio 9
East Saint Louis 4
Mobile, Alabama 11

Sacramento, CA 12
St Petersburg Florida 6
Shreveport, Louisiana 5
Lexington, KY 10
Spokane, Washington 3
Columbus, Georgia 11
Peoria, Illinois 2
Rockford, Illinois 8
Hilton Head Island, SC 1
Homestead Florida 2
Brockton, MA 4
Fayetteville, North Carolina 4
Dayton, Ohio 3
Henderson, NC 7----due to staffing cuts city saw huge spike in murders it calling for help from state city population is 15,000+
Tallahassee, Florida 2
Durham, NC 3


Edmonton, Canada 6
Toronto, Canada 15
Montreal, Canada 7
Calgary, Canada 4
Ottawa, Canada 10
Quebec City, Canada 0
Mississauga, Canada 9
Vancouver, Canada 8
Brampton, Canada 8
London, United Kingdom 57

Last edited by BPt111; 04-08-2018 at 01:38 PM..
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Old 04-08-2018, 01:24 PM
 
Location: Northeast states
13,962 posts, read 13,726,329 times
Reputation: 5105
Upstate New York

Buffalo, NY 5
Syracuse, NY 2
Rochester, NY 5
Poughkeepsie, NY 1
Utica, NY 2
New Rochelle, NY 1
Yonkers, NY 1
Mount Vernon, NY 1
Binghamton, NY 1
Niagara Falls, NY 1
Valley Stream, NY 1

New Jersey

Newark, NJ 19
Camden, NJ 6
Trenton, NJ 5
Irvington, New Jersey 2
Salem City, New Jersey 1
Camden, New Jersey 6
Jersey City, New Jersey 3
Trenton, New Jersey 5
Asbury Park, New Jersey 1
Orange, New Jersey 2
Pleasantville NJ 2
Paterson NJ 1

PA/Delaware

Pittsburgh, PA 19
Wilkinsburg, PA 2
Chester, PA 5
Wilmington, DE 6
Coatesville, PA 1
McKees Rocks, Pennsylvania 2
York, Pennsylvania 1
Reading, PA 5---4 killed in one indent
Harrisburg, PA 2
Allentown, PA 4
Wilkes-Barre, PA 1
Mckeesport, PA 1
Norristown, PA 2
New Castle, PA 2
Coatesville, PA 2
Duquesne, PA 1

New England

Hartford, CT 5
Bridgeport, CT 4
Brockton, MA 4
Lowell, MA 3
Providence, RI 3
Bangor, Maine 3
New Haven, CT 2
Springfield, MA 2
Waterbury, CT 2

Central Falls, RI 1
New Bedford, MA 1
Fall River, MA 1
Portland, Maine 1
Warwick, Rhode Island 1
New London, CT 1

Last edited by BPt111; 04-08-2018 at 01:39 PM..
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Old 04-08-2018, 06:22 PM
 
11,289 posts, read 26,054,414 times
Reputation: 11353
Quote:
Originally Posted by BPt111 View Post
Still high compare to NYC
good grief, virtually every single city in the country will be high compared to NYC, it's exceptionally low. I wouldn't compare things to that city regarding homicide rates in 2018.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:31 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
9,818 posts, read 7,820,546 times
Reputation: 9974
Quote:
Originally Posted by BPt111 View Post
NYC 62
LA 61
Chicago 117
Philly 77
Baltimore 66
Detroit 56
Denver 21
Miami 11
Indianapolis 35
Saint Louis 45
Dallas 32
Las Vegas Metro 52
Houston 52
Washington DC 34
Nashville Metro 24
Memphis 26
Louisville Metro 27
Minneapolis 14
Milwaukee 22

Boston Mass 14
San Diego 10
Tulsa, Oklahoma 10
Tucson, Arizona 18
Raleigh, NC 8
Little Rock, Arkansas 14
Fort Worth, Texas 14
Flint, Michigan 10
San Francisco 11
Kansas City, MO 29
Jackson, Mississippi 24
Charlotte, NC 12
Toledo, Ohio 15
Bakersfield, CA 12
Cleveland, Ohio 25

Jacksonville Florida 29
Gary, Indiana 18
Des Moines, Iowa 3
Birmingham, Alabama 29
Albuquerque, New Mexico 19
Cincinnati, Ohio 18
San Jose 7
Portland, Oregon 6
Salt Lake City, Utah 3
Oklahoma City 15
Baton Rouge, Louisiana 29
Richmond, VA 9
Madison, WI 1
Macon, GA 10
Long Beach, CA 7
Compton, CA 4
Tampa, Florida 10
Orlando 13
Arlington, Texas 4
Akron, Ohio 9
East Saint Louis 4
Mobile, Alabama 11

Sacramento, CA 12
St Petersburg Florida 6
Shreveport, Louisiana 5
Lexington, KY 10
Spokane, Washington 3
Columbus, Georgia 11
Peoria, Illinois 2
Rockford, Illinois 8
Hilton Head Island, SC 1
Homestead Florida 2
Brockton, MA 4
Fayetteville, North Carolina 4
Dayton, Ohio 3
Henderson, NC 7----due to staffing cuts city saw huge spike in murders it calling for help from state city population is 15,000+
Tallahassee, Florida 2
Durham, NC 3


Edmonton, Canada 6
Toronto, Canada 15
Montreal, Canada 7
Calgary, Canada 4
Ottawa, Canada 10
Quebec City, Canada 0
Mississauga, Canada 9
Vancouver, Canada 8
Brampton, Canada 8
London, United Kingdom 57
I'm not seeing Atlanta?
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