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View Poll Results: Which one is most likely to get surpassed or at least pushed this century?
Mexico City 6 6.25%
New York 36 37.50%
Toronto 54 56.25%
Voters: 96. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-10-2018, 02:14 AM
 
Location: Toronto
15,109 posts, read 15,717,413 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigLake View Post
No one's passing NYC or Mexico City anytime soon. Toronto is already pretty closely followed by Montreal and Vancouver, so it's not like it is dominant.
Closely followed in what way and how - French Canadian Culture? Mountain scenery? The GDP of the Greater Toronto Area is 75 percent larger than the next closest Montreal. Vancouver is so far behind Toronto in GDP it isn't even worth mentioning. In terms of population and depending on how one measures - The Greater Toronto and Hamilton area (a contiguous urbanized area) is well over 7 million vs 4.2 million for Greater Montreal and 2.5 million for metro Vancouver.

Growth over the years - not even close - The Greater Toronto and Hamilton region has been the population growth powerhouse in Canada for the last 50 years if we are talking about city growth.

The Toronto CMA alone (not the Greater Toronto and Hamilton contiguous urbanized area which is a larger entity) has been growing well over 100K per year the last two years and not far from it years before (which was when the oil boom out west was eating at Toronto's growth, but that is over now with the decline of the oil boom).

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...mo05a-eng.html

Montreal's CMA is less than half the growth of the Toronto CMA and that has been a pretty consistent story for the last half century. Vancouver will be lucky - very lucky to match Montreal's population in 50 years let alone a contiguous urbanized area that represents 1/5 the population of Canada. In relative terms both in population and economic clout - The greater Toronto area is far more important to Canada than NYC is to the U.S. 1/5th the GDP of Canada is in the GTA and even greater if you count the golden horseshoe region that Toronto anchors (which is increasingly functioning like a U.S CSA - no other Canadian city can come close to matching the MSA/CSA measures of the horseshoe). The New York MSA is about 1/14th the GDP of the U.S to provide some comparative perspective.

Unless Toronto gets devastated by a nuclear bomb or natural catastrophe it is highly unlikely any Canadian city will challenge it in the next few decades or even century.

 
Old 03-10-2018, 02:17 AM
BMI
 
Location: Ontario
7,456 posts, read 7,212,060 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigLake View Post
No one's passing NYC or Mexico City anytime soon. Toronto is already pretty closely followed by Montreal and Vancouver, so it's not like it is dominant.
I get why Toronto is leading this poll (by a wide margin too)....

I don’t think Toronto is being that closely followed by Montreal,
either won’t be over taking anytime soon.

Toronto is about 6.4 million metro

Montreal is about 4.2 million metro

Vancouver only about 2.4 million metro
 
Old 03-10-2018, 02:27 AM
 
Location: Toronto
15,109 posts, read 15,717,413 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BMI View Post
I get why Toronto is leading this poll (by a wide margin too)....

I don’t think Toronto is being that closely followed by Montreal,
either won’t be over taking anytime soon.

Toronto is about 6.4 million metro

Montreal is about 4.2 million metro

Vancouver only about 2.4 million metro
The only way Montreal will overtake Toronto is if it starts to match its growth and overtake it. That is highly unlikely. Not impossible but unlikely - the CMA growth of Toronto is essentially double that of Montreal so the gap is only going to widen and with that, same with GDP which is almost double Montreal right now. Toronto also functions more as an anchor metro for a much more populated area. You take the horseshoe that surrounds Toronto (about the size of PEI) and it is greater in population than the Province of Quebec let alone the Greater Montreal area. As Toronto CMA and surrounding CMA's in the horseshoe grow- they will continue to become more interconnected both in transit infrastructure and economic interconnectivity. There is nothing like this in Canada by a wide margin.

I voted for NYC and for good reason..
even though its GDP clobbers L.A and will for a long time - at least L.A is growing faster than NYC. From 2010 census to 2016 estimate L.A MSA's growth rate is higher than NYC. The same cannot be said of Montreal vs Toronto where Toronto has the larger GDP by a long shot and is growing faster than Montreal by a long shot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

Last edited by fusion2; 03-10-2018 at 02:52 AM..
 
Old 03-10-2018, 05:08 AM
 
1,032 posts, read 1,085,912 times
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Unlikely for any of them but if one must choose, NYC...Toronto is widening its lead over the rest of Canada and Mexico City may qualify as a primate city...the CSA population gap between NYC and LA (especially as a percentage) is not that great...a couple decades ago there was a genuine feeling that LA might surpass NYC but NYC reinvigorated itself and LA, while still popular, has had a few issues
 
Old 03-10-2018, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Gatineau, Québec
26,759 posts, read 37,665,557 times
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Not city proper of course but in terms of metro, LA passing NYC is definitely a possibility in the medium term.
 
Old 03-10-2018, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
6,441 posts, read 4,003,471 times
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I voted for Toronto, because while LA is closer in terms of population, NYC's current status is number 2 GDP in the world. LA culturally is significant too, but to put pressure on the second most important city in the world as far as economy goes and arguably most important city all around, not likely. Montreal on the other hand as well as Vancouver serve different functions in Canada than Toronto in my eyes, and while they can't take over they can definitely pressure Toronto in terms of certain things. Mexico isn't even debatable, unless Monterey switched populations with Guadalajara and kept the same GDP per capita, would it ever come close to pressuring Mexico City.
 
Old 03-10-2018, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Manhattan!
2,272 posts, read 2,194,255 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2 View Post
Unless Toronto gets devastated by a nuclear bomb or natural catastrophe it is highly unlikely any Canadian city will challenge it in the next few decades or even century.
I think the same can be said for all of these cities. And out of all these cities, I think that New York is most likely to see something like this happen. We’re also probably the largest targets for terrorist attacks too. NYC is no stranger to catastrophic events. With Toronto it seems to be a matter of “what if” something crazy happens where in NYC it’s more of when is the next thing going to happen, and how bad is it going to be this time? I think the most obvious long term disaster for us would be rising sea levels.

I think Toronto is easily, by far the safest of these 3 when it comes to these kinds of things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2 View Post
I voted for NYC and for good reason..
even though its GDP clobbers L.A and will for a long time - at least L.A is growing faster than NYC. From 2010 census to 2016 estimate L.A MSA's growth rate is higher than NYC. The same cannot be said of Montreal vs Toronto where Toronto has the larger GDP by a long shot and is growing faster than Montreal by a long shot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas
LA MSA did grow by a larger percentage, but it’s <1% difference. It’s easy to look at percentages alone, but sometimes raw numbers can tell a different story. It’s easy to see that NYC only grew by 3%, and that looks small until you realize that you’re talking about 3% of 20 Million. If you look at it that way, NYC MSA still sees a higher growth in raw numbers. 3% of 20 Million is larger than 3.75% of 13 Million.
Austin TX MSA for example grew by almost 20%, yet still saw less in raw numbers than both LA and NYC

Toronto seems to be widening its lead without a doubt, but it’s lead is fairly new and not even really that large. NYC’s lead is much larger and much more established. Not that I think either city’s will lose their lead, at least in our life times.

All that being said though, I am leaning towards NYC just due to the likelihood of catastrophic events alone.
 
Old 03-10-2018, 01:45 PM
 
Location: "The Dirty Irv" Irving, TX
4,001 posts, read 3,215,919 times
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I don't think any of these cities will lose their lead.

I think NYC probably will get the most pressure, not so much because LA alone will push it so hard, but that the US has more significant metros than Canada or Mexico that can compete with NYC in different ways and corrode the lead.

I would argue that LA is already the popular cultural capital of the US. I think everyone agrees that the Bay Area leads in tech.

What we have seen recently is a trend of the elite, highly paid talent moving to NYC and the Bay Area, (look at the data on IVY grads, the majority go to those two metros, with Boston getting a much smaller share,and Chicago even less) and I think that this will likely continue to be the trend.

That said, if something changes you could see a decentralization. I think it's unlikely though.

What I suspect is NYC will continue to become more and more out of reach for the regular guy which will mean it will get a higher and higher Per capita GDP and become more of a center for the elite and privileged than it already is which will solidify it as a global elite city. I think the middle class will continue to move to the sunbelt. LA could pass NYC in population during my lifetime I think, but probably not GDP.

As unlikely as NYC is to have alot of pressure put on it from below Toronto and Mexico city are even more unlikely in my opinion because they have seem to have more influence on their country than NY does over the US.
 
Old 03-10-2018, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Manhattan!
2,272 posts, read 2,194,255 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Treasurevalley92 View Post
What I suspect is NYC will continue to become more and more out of reach for the regular guy which will mean it will get a higher and higher Per capita GDP and become more of a center for the elite and privileged than it already is which will solidify it as a global elite city. I think the middle class will continue to move to the sunbelt. LA could pass NYC in population during my lifetime I think, but probably not GDP.
The population gap between NYC and LA is over 4.5 Million. That’s more than double LA’s current size of 4 Million. I don’t know if this is very realistic for our lifetimes. This would also be assuming that NYC somehow stays dormant, which is unlikely. I know LA is investing a lot in transit (which I love to see), but it would need to do so much more on the infrastructure front.

Last edited by That_One_Guy; 03-10-2018 at 02:18 PM.. Reason: Spelling
 
Old 03-10-2018, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
6,441 posts, read 4,003,471 times
Reputation: 4481
Quote:
Originally Posted by That_One_Guy View Post
The population gap between NYC and LA is over 4.5 Million. That’s more than double LA’s current size of 4 Million. I don’t know if this is very realistic for our lifetimes. This would also be assuming that NYC somehow stays dormant, which is unlikely. I know LA is investing a lot in transit (which I love to see), but it would need to do so much more on the infrastructure front.
Well 4 million is very plausible. It has been done on several occasions within a decade or two although it is unlikely to take that short amount of time. LA could pass NYC in 30 years at this point but that is extreme growth from LA or just general stagnation from New York.
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