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This is something that many get wrong! Of the 4058 square miles in L.A. County only 1/3rd of it is actually inhabited. If you simply doubled the size or even triple the size of L.A. City LImits then you have a city that has more people than NYC. L.A. is very evenly urban throughout the metro many suburbs are just as dense if not more dense. More than 13 million people live in the 1736 miles of urban L.A..
Right, but then if you start doing a parallel expansion of NYC city limits, you also start netting a lot more people. You keep going and at some point you’re going to net Philadelphia before LA nets San Diego.
NYC’s growth is only numerically smaller on the CSA level and the difference isn’t massive. Moreover, the GDP gap is actually increasing. However, all of this might just be a recent trend and at some point in the next 80 year timeframe of this topic, it’s possible for things to shift drastically and LA might ultimately come up ahead eventually.
The other thing is that NYC is the only coastal city among the three in this topic and that has its own potential set of issues, so there’s room to argue that the balance of power might shift into the interior.
Finally, the federal government of the US has the potential of some time in the next 80 years of going through significant growth, and with demographic and economic growth could come an adjustment to the balance of power in the US. DC not that long ago was almost purely a government town, but in recent decades many large corporations in hospitality, defense services, and aerospace have shifted their headquarters to the DC area (LA actually lost a significant number of such headquarters to the DC area).
Right, but then if you start doing a parallel expansion of NYC city limits, you also start netting a lot more people. You keep going and at some point you’re going to net Philadelphia before LA nets San Diego.
NYC’s growth is only numerically smaller on the CSA level and the difference isn’t massive. Moreover, the GDP gap is actually increasing. However, all of this might just be a recent trend and at some point in the next 80 year timeframe of this topic, it’s possible for things to shift drastically and LA might ultimately come up ahead eventually.
The other thing is that NYC is the only coastal city among the three in this topic and that has its own potential set of issues, so there’s room to argue that the balance of power might shift into the interior.
Finally, the federal government of the US has the potential of some time in the next 80 years of going through significant growth, and with demographic and economic growth could come an adjustment to the balance of power in the US. DC not that long ago was almost purely a government town, but in recent decades many large corporations in hospitality, defense services, and aerospace have shifted their headquarters to the DC area (LA actually lost a significant number of such headquarters to the DC area).
Yeah, then NYC will go from 5 counties to who knows how many. Seeing how much L.A. has grown over the last decades I don't see it being that difficult to pass NYC. In all honesty I love NYC, but i'm not going to pretend like its 200 years ahead of LA, or that any other single city in the country is even ahead of it.
I would hope that the federal government would expand in more economically depressed areas such as the rust belt cities.
Montréal was still the former première city in Canada. It was it and destined to keep it .... but for a correction or miscalculation (depending how you see it today by todays perspective).
That being the "Separatist Movement" in the 70s. ALL WAS MONTRÉAL'S to loose. That Top tiered Canadian institutions status ... it did as the banking sector and other economic sectors. High-tailed it to Toronto. That gave Toronto the HUGE boost it needed. It was like much that was in NYC hightailed it to Chicago.
Both were growing then. Whether Toronto was a bit faster then? Still would have NOT changed Montréal's première city of Canada status pre-mid 70s when the great migration south to Ontario of Canada's key institutions to Toronto occurred in fear of a independent Québec.
Toronto of course was in a great position at the time to run with its gift and never looked back, or have reason to see it came easy... but it sort of did. Canada immigration policy clearly provided the educated immigrants chosen by necessary skills Canada sees as desirable.
You do know that even without the separatist movement, Toronto would've surpassed us regardless. It started with the expansion of the St. Lawrence Seaway and other factors, and the final nail in the coffin was the separatist movement in the 70's. Regardless, although Montreal will never surpass Toronto (unless something happens), we're growing at a 44,000-50,000 per year rate, which is very healthy. The city has a bright future and we're going through the biggest economic boom in history. Also with future generations being more open to the world and less focused on language debates, we can see another shift with Montreal within 10-20 years. But keeping in topic with the thread, Toronto will remain the biggest city in Canada for the foreseeable future.
In terms of Quebec and French Canadian culture sure - Montreal is far more important as the cultural centre of Quebec. For Canada at large and English Canada not as much. If you look at federal cultural arts funding, Toronto still gets the most and if you look at economic indicators in the cultural industry - Toronto is at the top. As a matter of fact, Toronto has 93% more artists in it than any other city in Canada. Where Toronto lags is in municipal funding for the arts which is lower on a per capita basis than other large Canadian cities. That said, in overall cultural funding ie accounting for Provincial and Federal funding and the overall cultural economy - as a city Toronto is still at the top.
I'd also argue that as a media hub - Toronto's is more national in focus ie CBC English language master control point and the Globe and Mail - Canada's most read national newspaper.
Still the Separatist Movement and vote sealed the deal for Toronto's "Golden Spoon" to finally the NEW Première city of Canada. Toronto's faster growth still needed what Montréal had ..... then TORONTO GOT LUCKY. They hit the gold mine and IN A DAY ..... BECAME DESTINED FOR STARDOM.
- In 1976, the separatist-minded Parti Québécois beat the Quebec Liberal party in the province’s election. The next day, “the Brinks trucks [armoured vehicles for transporting cash] were rolling down the highway” and out of the French-speaking province, said Joe Martin, director of the Canadian business history programme at Toronto university’s Rotman School of Management.
- Most of the money that fled the province made its way to Toronto, which by the early 1980s had replaced Quebec’s Montreal as Canada’s most populous city. Which is why First Canadian Place is today the de facto headquarters for Bank of Montreal, even though the lender is registered in its namesake city.
- More of Canada’s largest financial institutions shifted their bases to Toronto and now inhabit the towers that rise over Bay Street, the heart of the sector. By 1980, only one of Canada’s largest eight financial institutions by assets – National Bank – was still headquartered and managed from Montreal, according to Mr Martin. That had fallen from five out of eight, including Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada and Sun Life Financial. “Montreal never recovered – there is no financial sector in the city,” said Reuven Brenner, a professor at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management.
- According to american Marc L. Levine, in the 10 years following the 1976 PQ election, 99,000 anglophones left Montréal. (The Reconquest of Montreal, p. 120) This is a huge number, and, as most english commenters will not miss noting, those out-migrants were disproportionately young and well educated, Montréal was thus denuded of its best and brightest.
Of course, there was Toronto growing faster then Montréal all along. But its location closer to the US industrial base of previous decades and its immigration and gaining from Montréal's losses..... It sure was gifted.
In the 1970's... US cities were IN THEIR WORST PERIOD OF DECLINES and Mighty NYC at Bankruptcy.... Toronto was FEELING LITTLE PAIN and GAINED A WINDFALL AT MONTRÉAL'S LOSS. Not that it was Toronto's fault in the least. JUST BEING THE DIAMOND CITY of "Oh' Canada" it seemed to be.
You did not like the term - a gift of a HUGE chunk of Canada's financial sector. But still it was a Bonanza that sealed its New status that coincided with a even larger population growth as Montréal lost 99,000 Anglophone's .... not all went to Toronto. But might have been a ... Nice Big Chunk of talent?
But again. If a Catastrophic even paralyzed Toronto ..... Montréal still could rise to the occasion. It recovered today. Just not nearly to its former glory of a Financial Center of ALL Canada.
There is a thread in the "CvC" forums. If it did not ask "for cities of the US".... I'd post TORONTO is the LUCKIEST.
I can't see Montreal passing up Toronto, even if it was formerly Canada's premier city. The only city that could possibly surpass Toronto would be Vancouver, and that's solely on the basis of its location on the Pacific Rim. With Canada increasing its trade ties to Asia (via the new TPP), it's pretty easy to envision Vancouver growing in influence. And unlike the US, Canada only has one major Pacific city.
That being said, I still think the most vulnerable city of the three is NYC. LA has drought issues, NYC has sea level rise, but LA is growing faster.
There is a thread in the "CvC" forums. If it did not ask "for cities of the US".... I'd post TORONTO is the LUCKIEST.
I don't know why you are going on and on about this. You even have posters from Montreal saying even without the separatist movement, Toronto was still gaining on Montreal well before the 70's and would have eclipsed it anyway. This is demonstrated in statistics and history. You are mincing words by saying 'gift' and 'lucky'
In the article you quoted in a cherry picked manner - the author was getting at you can't assume Toronto benefitted from all the exodus of English Canadians out of Montreal. That other cities including in the U.S gained from this. Did you examine what 'gifts' they potentially got from the Montreal exodus? You also assume nobody in English Canada including from Toronto moves to Montreal. As if Montreal's borders are closed from domestic migration for all time. Well I can tell you this is patently false and that Montreal has received 'gifts' from Toronto. How do you like dem apples?
Depending on who you ask - Montreal was 'lucky' for not embracing all the immigrants that Toronto did. Toronto lost quite a bit of the one thing many level on it which is a lacking in strong local character and culture. I am ok with this, I prefer a multicultural and hyper diverse city but there is always opportunity costs.
Sometimes you have to lose something to gain something else. I think there is no city in Canada that embraces our nations ideals as well as Toronto does. I think the fact that Toronto has consistently taken in the most new residents into its borders over the last 50 odd years would show that many would agree with that take.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cle2sf
I can't see Montreal passing up Toronto, even if it was formerly Canada's premier city. The only city that could possibly surpass Toronto would be Vancouver, and that's solely on the basis of its location on the Pacific Rim. With Canada increasing its trade ties to Asia (via the new TPP), it's pretty easy to envision Vancouver growing in influence. And unlike the US, Canada only has one major Pacific city.
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This is an interesting take. Don't forget however that Toronto is also well connected with Asia and will benefit from any growing ties. The East Asian community while not as representatively as large in Toronto as it is in Vancouver, is still larger than Vancouver in absolute numbers.
Los Angeles will never surpass New York City as long as we're living (barring some catastrophic incident). NYC adds more people per year than LA. CSA is the only level where LA ads more people than NYC.
And the wealth gap between NYC and LA is too severe for LA to overcome. NYC's Fortune 500 Count has gone up while LA's goes down. The gap between NYC and LA's GDP is still growing. NYC has multiple times more high net worth individuals than LA, and the gap is increasing.
LA is already inferior to the Bay Area by most metrics and I think it should worry about being surpassed by Houston rather than hopelessly setting its sights on NYC's throne.
Last edited by globalist; 03-12-2018 at 12:05 AM..
Los Angeles will never surpass New York City as long as we're living (barring some catastrophic incident). NYC adds more people per year than LA. CSA is the only level where LA ads more people than NYC.
And the wealth gap between NYC and LA is too severe for LA to overcome. NYC's Fortune 500 Count has gone up while LA's goes down. The gap between NYC and LA's GDP is still growing. NYC has multiple times more high net worth individuals than LA, and the gap is increasing.
LA is already inferior to the Bay Area by most metrics and I think it should worry about being surpassed by Houston rather than hopelessly setting its sights on NYC's throne.
The timespan the OP listed is this century which is another 8 decades and change away. So that “as long as we’re living” qualifier you wrote is very accurate, because it’s very likely you won’t be around to the end of it.
Eight decades is a long time for things to change. In that kind of time scale, there are all sorts of scenarios which might see some metropolitan area in the US surpass NYC’s.
Yeah, then NYC will go from 5 counties to who knows how many. Seeing how much L.A. has grown over the last decades I don't see it being that difficult to pass NYC. In all honesty I love NYC, but i'm not going to pretend like its 200 years ahead of LA, or that any other single city in the country is even ahead of it.
I would hope that the federal government would expand in more economically depressed areas such as the rust belt cities.
I’m not sure what 200 years ahead even means. The counties are pretty much ceremonial in NYC, though since the counties in the east are relatively small, it seems sensible that expansion would go by counties. Including Hudson County and Essex County into current day NYC actually gets NYC to about the same land area as LA’s current boundaries.
I’d like to see it move to St. Louis. That’d be fun.
I don't know why you are going on and on about this. You even have posters from Montreal saying even without the separatist movement, Toronto was still gaining on Montreal well before the 70's and would have eclipsed it anyway. This is demonstrated in statistics and history. You are mincing words by saying 'gift' and 'lucky'
In the article you quoted in a cherry picked manner - the author was getting at you can't assume Toronto benefitted from all the exodus of English Canadians out of Montreal. That other cities including in the U.S gained from this. Did you examine what 'gifts' they potentially got from the Montreal exodus? You also assume nobody in English Canada including from Toronto moves to Montreal. As if Montreal's borders are closed from domestic migration for all time. Well I can tell you this is patently false and that Montreal has received 'gifts' from Toronto. How do you like dem apples?
Depending on who you ask - Montreal was 'lucky' for not embracing all the immigrants that Toronto did. Toronto lost quite a bit of the one thing many level on it which is a lacking in strong local character and culture. I am ok with this, I prefer a multicultural and hyper diverse city but there is always opportunity costs.
Sometimes you have to lose something to gain something else. I think there is no city in Canada that embraces our nations ideals as well as Toronto does. I think the fact that Toronto has consistently taken in the most new residents into its borders over the last 50 odd years would show that many would agree with that take.
Well guess we agree. Toronto was/is the luckiest city in Canada and North America. No white-flight like US cities and other racial issues they have to illegal immigrants, as highly educated immigrants flocking there for decades, gifted aspects of the Top Echelon of Canadian Financial to much more ... over what it already had in what was Montréal's to lose and huge ..... international investment in its high-rise building being zoned for and get it gets there especially. No other city clearly planned it to be a high-rise city in NA as Toronto.
You say.... sometimes to have to loose to gain? Well seems Toronto did not have to loose anything. Merely growing pains and seeing NYC as more a pier to become more like in aspects .... but with all the best of being Canadian.
I did say Toronto was still growing faster all along and clearly ..... no city has that Golden position to take its glory today and 50% of the population immigrants from other Nations and increasing at a fast pace boasted on C-D.
Why it will continue to WIN in the poll here. So all is good.
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