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Baltimore and Cleveland and Detroit seem to be continuing on the path of being donut holes, maybe a pretty vibrant Downtown that attracts residents and visitors from the suburbs, but surrounded by depopulated neighborhoods.
Don't confuse Baltimore with Cleveland and Detroit. In 2010 Baltimore had a population over 300,000 in the central 30 sq miles around Downtown. More than Seattle. In fact, Baltimore has one of the most densely populated urban cores in the country outside of the Big 6. It is also home to some of the city's best neighborhoods (e.g. Federal Hill, Mt Vernon, Bolton Hill). It is further afield where you hit the worst blight.
Baltimore and Cleveland and Detroit seem to be continuing on the path of being donut holes, maybe a pretty vibrant Downtown that attracts residents and visitors from the suburbs, but surrounded by depopulated neighborhoods.
Actually the neighbourhoods that surround DT Detroit are all seeing new investment and population growth now, these include Midtown, Corktown, New Center, Brush Park, and the East Riverfront. There is also new development in other, even further out neighbourhoods occurring now, this wasn’t the case even just a few years ago! If anything, the city has completely changes its trajectory over the past half decade, blight is being reduced at a rapid rate, and the population loss is expected to be the lowest it’s been in half a century!
This is Detroit’s infamous Cass Corridor today, now called Midtown. It used to be extremely blighted and dangerous, and now is one of the safest and most vibrant neighbourhoods in the city!
Baltimore and Cleveland and Detroit seem to be continuing on the path of being donut holes, maybe a pretty vibrant Downtown that attracts residents and visitors from the suburbs, but surrounded by depopulated neighborhoods.
I think by 2030, it's likely things will have moved beyond that with the interest and development in the central core having spread out to much of the rest of the city. I think it's pretty likely that the 2020 to 2030 census posts gains for all three of these cities. However, it'll only have been a few years of that sort of creeping development.
I think by 2030, it's likely things will have moved beyond that with the interest and development in the central core having spread out to much of the rest of the city. I think it's pretty likely that the 2020 to 2030 census posts gains for all three of these cities. However, it'll only have been a few years of that sort of creeping development.
2030 is only 12 years away though. even Places in Boston, which has a faster growing Metro than Cleveland or Detroit took about 20 years for the hot market to radiate from the North End/Back Bay/Beacon Hill/DT core to South Boston, Somerville, Roslindale and Lower Roxbury.
Also there is no way Detroit is going to post a gain for 2010-2020, its already down an estimated 40,000 from 2010.
For what it's worth, people seem to underestimate St. Louis all the time or write it off as a has-been. In fact, the tallest-ever residential tower in the city is currently under construction in the Central West End, as is the third-tallest ever residential tower, downtown. And within months, another residential tower will break ground downtown, which will be slightly taller than the aforementioned third-tallest tower.
All these cities are resilient and will come back.
For what it's worth, people seem to underestimate St. Louis all the time or write it off as a has-been. In fact, the tallest-ever residential tower in the city is currently under construction in the Central West End, as is the third-tallest ever residential tower, downtown. And within months, another residential tower will break ground downtown, which will be slightly taller than the aforementioned third-tallest tower.
All these cities are resilient and will come back.
12 years it not a long time to match the rate that Atlanta is or Miami are growing.
Has Miami upzoned areas away from the coast? I don’t remember seeing any development above the roofline of the houses when riding the train. Development always seems to be near the water. It’s a similar look to Philly and Baltimore rowhomes with buildings all under 4 stories. In Miami, outside of a few areas like downtown or along the water, it’s the same. Now, EBDI in east Bmore has a blank slate and is building large buildings around the hospital. Does that kind of example exist in any Miami neighborhoods that aren’t already building high-rises?
Dadeland has some TOD around the Dadeland South Metrorail station.
2030 is only 12 years away though. even Places in Boston, which has a faster growing Metro than Cleveland or Detroit took about 20 years for the hot market to radiate from the North End/Back Bay/Beacon Hill/DT core to South Boston, Somerville, Roslindale and Lower Roxbury.
Also there is no way Detroit is going to post a gain for 2010-2020, its already down an estimated 40,000 from 2010.
Right--I'm not saying that the entire rest of those cities will have become developed by then. Only that development may start to move out of just a small downtown area by then.
I also don't think Detroit is going to post a gain from 2010 to 2020. I wrote that it seems likely to me that it, and Baltimore and Cleveland, will post a gain from 2020 to 2030. Their net losses have been plateauing and younger people have been moving in which means a good chance of both gains from moving and from birth by then. I'm bullish on mid to major Rust Belt cities, but I think there's fairly rational reasons to be.
With that being said, I still think Miami is the most likely answer to the OP's question with Atlanta second to Miami.
Right--I'm not saying that the entire rest of those cities will have become developed by then. Only that development may start to move out of just a small downtown area by then.
I also don't think Detroit is going to post a gain from 2010 to 2020. I wrote that it seems likely to me that it, and Baltimore and Cleveland, will post a gain from 2020 to 2030. Their net losses have been plateauing and younger people have been moving in which means a good chance of both gains from moving and from birth by then. I'm bullish on mid to major Rust Belt cities, but I think there's fairly rational reasons to be.
I would be a bit cautious on that because remember, the entire Rustbelt (and even Boston and Atlanta) were really overestimated in 2009 vs the 2010 census. So I would wait to see if population loss is really slowing down that much especially when metro growth rates are not changing.
12 years it not a long time to match the rate that Atlanta is or Miami are growing.
Yeah not saying STL or most other cities mentioned will ever catch up to the sunbelt growth rates, but I'm saying it's not like they're going to fade into oblivion either.
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