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States poised to be undergoing a paradigm shift: new largest cities
Tennessee would work as a past example. Memphis used to be both the largest city and largest metropolitan area in Tennessee, likely the most recognizable city in the state as well with regard to popular culture, history, and importance. That was until Nashville surpassed it to become the state's largest city, largest metropolitan area, most important city in the state, and biggest cultural center in the state.
Here are a list of states that could "potentially" one day some decades down the line see the same occurrence as well (no particular order):
- North Carolina
- South Carolina
- Missouri
- Alabama
- Ohio
Please discuss and converse on which state you think is most likely to see the same sort of transition from its current top city to another top city in the decades to come. Please explain the reasons as to why this would be a possibility. Factors such as economic, logistical, social, political, and demographic could be used to make an argument as well as other possibilities that are not mentioned here.
South Carolina. Greenville continues to set the pace.
Alabama? Huntsville is a dynamic place, but Birmingham is healthy and thriving, too. Birmingham's metro GDP exceeds that of Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, and a couple of smaller metros combined.
North Carolina? I think there are a lot of great places in that state, but nothing is going to surpass Charlotte.
Missouri? I don't know which city is tops there, St. Louis or KC.
Alabama: Huntsville will likely replace Birmingham as the new largest city. While the metro will likely stay behind Birmingham for some time. Huntsville has a high tech industry, and experience good economic growth. Toyota-Mazda, Google Data Center, and new STEM jobs are great news for the Huntsville region.
Tennessee: Nashville's influence will likely push Murfreesboro and Clarksville past Chattanooga and Knoxville in the next decade. Murfreesboro has a large university and is attracting new healthcare and distribution jobs. Clarksville is affordable and has attracted manufacturing industries. Murfreesboro is already part of the Nashville Metro while Clarksville's metro will remain behind Knoxville and Chattanooga for some time. Clarksville might join Nashville's Combined Stastical Area in the future.
I think Wyoming could fit this bill. I'm not sure how it could happen, but seeing as how WY secondary cities (Cody, Gillette, and Rock Springs) are currently only about 40-50,000 people smaller than Cheyenne, all one of them would need to do is grow at a modest clip (assuming Cheyenne doesn't) over that time period to eclipse Cheyenne in population, but not necessarily in political and cultural importance.
NC- I think Raleigh has a decent chance to supplant Charlotte over the long run. It gets more accolades and has government, academia & business there. It's not that Charlotte isn't doing well, it's just that Raleigh is getting noticed for its potential. Here is a point to think about. Amazon placed the Research Triangle in its top 20 but didn't include Charlotte. With all of the room to grow and major employers like Apple & Amazon seriously considering the location, I think Raleigh has a good shot over the long run.
I would ask for more specific criteria. Are you talking about population (city, metro?), seat of government, pro sports teams, college sports teams, best downtown, best schools, least crime, climate, economic growth? I think I can give you a good response but need some qualifiers.
That said, let's start with the obvious in Ohio.
Cleveland has long been the "top" city in Ohio, but Columbus and Cincinnati are right behind.
Population (MSA 2017, ranked by growth from 2010)
1. Columbus 2.079 million (+9.29%)
2. Cincinnati 2.179 million (+3.05%)
3. Cleveland 2.059 million (-.89%)
Most likely? I think North carolina is the only one that has a chance. The rest are either land locked and not very progressive. Or both
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