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Amazon chosen cities New York, Northern Virginia/DC area and Nashville. How will these Cities/Metro's shape up, change in the next 10 to 20 Years, any predictions?? Population Growth, housing prices, infrastructure, changes, etc. Will there be min to no change/effect or do you think it will have a major effect? How will they compare to other Cities in their state and or even region. Will it help these regions as a whole? Now that these Cities have the prize, what will they look like in 10 to 20 years?
I can't speak on NOVA or New York, but those areas will absorb the jobs very easily. Real estate will definitely see the most gain. As for Nashville, Amazon will change the city for the better. Amazon's announcement justifies the building boom currently going on in Nashville. It won't resemble what most visitors think of as Nashville. In another 4-5 years, other districts downtown will emerge that will start to separate Nashville from its peers. The only thing holding Nashville back is the lack of support for mass transit. The city continues to make excuses for this, and at this point it is getting old.
I can't say that Amazon has been, overall, that good for Seattle. Homeless, skyrocketing real estate prices....hence the homeless. Overall, it definitely has its bad points, along with the good. Not sure which overshadows the other. I don't think it's a clear win.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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This thread seems to be comparing specifically just the three winning cities, in NYC, NOVA, and Nashville, and how each will be affected differently. I do see it as a bit different than those others, and not all that redundant.
Last edited by the resident09; 12-11-2018 at 01:39 PM..
This thread seems to be comparing just the three winning cities, in NYC, NOVA, and Nashville, and how each will be affected differently. I do see it as a bit different than those others, and not all that redundant.
Exactly, has nothing to do with the before or past... Only comparing the chosen cities at this point moving forward and effect on these three Metro Areas.. Other's were really more over the past
I think Amazon HQ2 over time will help the DMV area diversify both its economy and culture further away from the government which is a dominating presence in the DMV, even to the private sector.
I didn't have any horses in the HQ2 race but was hoping that they would select somewhere in the DMV because that's one area that truly will benefit from HQ2. More private sector companies and more socioeconomic factors that stray away from the typical government drab is a complete benefit for that region. Over time HQ2 and other potential headquarters relocations in the private industry to the DMV region will give the area a boost. It'll reform the area's culture away from the one-dimensional government types. Even the attractions like the monuments, museums, the art galleries, and the like are there to commemorate the government and various politically important people throughout history, they're great amenities by the way, but also play into the one-dimensional attributes and identity of the DMV region as a whole.
Additions like Amazon's HQ2 will make the region stronger in times of major government cuts because things like these will help keep the local economy stable in times of a downturn. Half of the DMV's economy is made up of the government or defense sectors and a large amount of it in the private industry such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have intrinsic involvement with the government. Their trajectory depends on the trajectory of the state of the government and most importantly, the interest rate levels by the Federal Reserve, which dictate the health of the DMV's private sector to a great degree.
The region over the last decade has made strides in luring more private industry and has been successful to some extent at it. A potential of 40,000 high-paying Amazon HQ2 jobs that have nothing to do with the government is a mega-boost to the DMV and a much needed one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oobanks
Now that these Cities have the prize, what will they look like in 10 to 20 years?
I think the world has two sets of capital cities:
Set 1: London, Tokyo, Paris, Moscow, Beijing, so on and so forth.
Set 2: Washington D.C., Canberra, Ottawa, Brasilia, so on and so forth.
The first set are true great cities of the world. True world class global cities. The second set are incredibly important cities to the world but not a great deal beyond importance.
To Washington's credit, it does happen to be the best and most attractive city in "Set 2" but that's not saying much, in my opinion. It's not cool that when you think of culture that the first thing that comes to mind are people in suits working for the government. Yuck. What makes it worse is that Washington doesn't have the shopping scene, the food scene, the nightscene, the themeparks, and outdoor attractions (e.g.: like Bondi Beach to Sydney, La Jolla to San Diego, so on) and the like to make people think of things beyond the government. It doesn't have a cool reputation or local culture, it's not a place people flock to be artists, musicians, actors and actresses, inventors and innovators, or the like. It doesn't have festivals and events like Coachella, TomorrowLand, or South by Southwest that lure people in. It's a very professional city, a workaholics city, for its sake it is too professional for its own good.
I think if Washington D.C. wants to be viewed as a desirable city and world class global destination then it needs to get into "Set 1" because "Set 2" implies that it is very important, very very important but it's not very attractive or alluring as a destination. That can change by attracting more private industry that isn't government related and over time allowing those influences to develop a local culture, identity, and brand that are both appealing and completely unrelated to the government. First step is to get people that are different to see the value in relocating there and everything else will fall into line later on as things develop organically over time. Food scene, local shop scene, nightscene, music scene, fun and entertainment will follow. It would be a boost to the city and the region in general. It would likely take some time to develop this but then again even Rome wasn't built in one day.
I don't think Amazon's HQ2 fixes the problem for the DMV but its a step in the right direction. A direction that means getting further removed from the government and more into other things, thus expanding realms and dimensions to the regional culture. That's something that the DMV really lacks right now and that is the thing that is keeping the DMV from truly being world class and an alluring destination spot for worldwide travelers and expats. Changing this and adapting to incorporate new features and attributes would go a great distance in making the DMV into the world class global city that people want it to be.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 12-11-2018 at 03:06 PM..
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,137 posts, read 7,592,927 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric
Alright then.
I think Amazon HQ2 over time will help the DMV area diversify both its economy and culture further away from the government which is a dominating presence in the DMV, even to the private sector.
I didn't have any horses in the HQ2 race but was hoping that they would select somewhere in the DMV because that's one area that truly will benefit from HQ2. More private sector companies and more socioeconomic factors that stray away from the typical government drab is a complete benefit for that region. Over time HQ2 and other potential headquarters relocations in the private industry to the DMV region will give the area a boost. It'll reform the area's culture away from the one-dimensional government types. Even the attractions like the monuments, museums, the art galleries, and the like are there to commemorate the government and various politically important people throughout history, they're great amenities by the way, but also play into the one-dimensional attributes and identity of the DMV region as a whole.
Additions like Amazon's HQ2 will make the region stronger in times of major government cuts because things like these will help keep the local economy stable in times of a downturn. Half of the DMV's economy is made up of the government or defense sectors and a large amount of it in the private industry such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have intrinsic involvement with the government. Their trajectory depends on the trajectory of the state of the government and most importantly, the interest rate levels by the Federal Reserve, which dictate the health of the DMV's private sector to a great degree.
The region over the last decade has made strides in luring more private industry and has been successful to some extent at it. A potential of 40,000 high-paying Amazon HQ2 jobs that have nothing to do with the government is a mega-boost to the DMV and a much needed one.
I think the world has two sets of capital cities:
Set 1: London, Tokyo, Paris, Moscow, Beijing, so on and so forth.
Set 2: Washington D.C., Canberra, Ottawa, Brasilia, so on and so forth.
The first set are true great cities of the world. True world class global cities. The second set are incredibly important cities to the world but not a great deal beyond importance.
To Washington's credit, it does happen to be the best and most attractive city in "Set 2" but that's not saying much, in my opinion. It's not cool that when you think of culture that the first thing that comes to mind are people in suits working for the government. Yuck. What makes it worse is that Washington doesn't have the shopping scene, the food scene, the nightscene, the themeparks, and outdoor attractions (e.g.: like Bondi Beach to Sydney, La Jolla to San Diego, so on) and the like to make people think of things beyond the government. It doesn't have a cool reputation or local culture, it's not a place people flock to be artists, musicians, actors and actresses, inventors and innovators, or the like. It doesn't have festivals and events like Coachella, TomorrowLand, or South by Southwest that lure people in. It's a very professional city, a workaholics city, for its sake it is too professional for its own good.
I think if Washington D.C. wants to be viewed as a desirable city and world class global destination then it needs to get into "Set 1" because "Set 2" implies that it is very important, very very important but it's not very attractive or alluring as a destination. That can change by attracting more private industry that isn't government related and over time allowing those influences to develop a local culture, identity, and brand that are both appealing and completely unrelated to the government. First step is to get people that are different to see the value in relocating there and everything else will fall into line later on as things develop organically over time. Food scene, local shop scene, nightscene, music scene, fun and entertainment will follow. It would be a boost to the city and the region in general. It would likely take some time to develop this but then again even Rome wasn't built in one day.
I don't think Amazon's HQ2 fixes the problem for the DMV but its a step in the right direction. A direction that means getting further removed from the government and more into other things, thus expanding realms and dimensions to the regional culture. That's something that the DMV really lacks right now and that is the thing that is keeping the DMV from truly being world class and an alluring destination spot for worldwide travelers and expats. Changing this and adapting to incorporate new features and attributes would go a great distance in making the DMV into the world class global city that people want it to be.
This is mostly, true although I think you're under selling a bit.
I know you haven't been here in a while, but there are actors, actresses, singers, investors, and innovators here already. The key with DC is notoriety, and what the city is famous for. DC isn't a place where people move TO, in order to do those things. Startups like LivingSocial and 1776 have come out of DC, various genres of music created in the city, and there are festivals mostly year round, but who knows about those festivals? Broccoli City, Trillectro, H street festival and many others happen annually. They are just not the size or scale of Coachella or Tomorrowland. Coachella is 2 hours from LA btw so idk where that fits here. There also regionally are enough amusement parks to suffice for the population, although Kings Dominion sits just minutes outside the metro area boundaries closer to Richmond, but many from DMV fill the place up. I'm with you on the rest. And that sentence I put in bold I really agree with.
Also one great thing about DC is that it recognizes what it needs to work on and then moves to do something about it, from a brand/marketing standpoint. It's not stagnant, and with all these smart, important, global leaders here, the city has a high standard for itself. Example below of DC intentionally attempting to create it's own version of what is SxSW. Things are already being done about re-shaping the image, they are in motion now.
I don't think that Amazon's presence does much directly to change most of what you stated, but the diversifying of the local economy here is key to staying the pace with other top U.S. and world cities.
Last edited by the resident09; 12-11-2018 at 04:27 PM..
I don't think that Amazon's presence does much directly to change most of what you stated, but the diversifying of the local economy here is key to staying the pace with other top U.S. and world cities.
Actually it does quite a lot. Usually getting a corporate headquarters isn't so much of a big deal with regard to urban development and a shape-shift in the cultural paradigm but Amazon's HQ2 wasn't any ordinary headquarter placement. Usually when cities get a corporate headquarters by relocation, that means something like 300 to 1,200 jobs of varying pay ranges and office space absorption between 120,000 to 450,000 square feet.
In contrast HQ2 is not ordinary in either size, scale, or scope. HQ2 at build-out in a 15-20 year framework is 40,000 high paying jobs, roughly 6 million square feet of office space, and a feeder zone for all of Amazon's distribution partners to join in on the fun as well.
There's a reason why HQ2 was a continent-wide frenzy for 15 months straight.
Like I mentioned earlier, Amazon's presence will go to diversifying the localized DMV area economy (further cutting into the government's share of the region's overall economy). In contrast, the 40,000 people that Amazon hires, majority of whom will be coming from outside of the DMV area will go towards shape-shifting the culture of the region as a whole gradually over time (especially as between a quarter to a third of all new hires will likely be from overseas). Most people have lives outside of work and their lives impact the culture and fabric of the communities that they live in. Those communities have to account for their necessary and entertainment needs accordingly. An average salary of $100,000 is Top 10-15% in the entirety of the United States. With Amazon putting 40,000 of these folks in a concentrated location in Northern Virginia will open the floodgates to other developers from a variety of industries to set up shop nearby. As that pipeline develops, then will come cultural reformation, first on a neighborhood scale to eventually reaching region-wide influence. It'll be a chasm that begins to change the area's cultural makeup somewhat over a period of time as these new folks will have differing interests than their government/government-contracting counterparts. This will lead to more variety in options for stores, food, nightlife, entertainment and the like.
A micro-scale example is the transformation of the South Lake Union neighborhood in the core of Seattle post-Amazon. You should see the before and after images of that neighborhood. I would recommend searching both the street-level changes and the aerial changes in the pre- and post- stages of Amazon in that neighborhood.
Shifting gears a bit: to put into perspective what 40,000 jobs and 6 million square feet looks like, here is a visualization to demonstrate:
^ That's a central CBD of 13 million square feet of office space and around 80,000 workers. Now imagine exactly half of that and that is what Crystal City is about to absorb into its urban fabric. That's a lot of people, a lot of people making top shelf money. Money and disposable income that will no doubt attract developers from residential, retail, and entertainment backgrounds into the area. Over the period of 30-40 years, this is the sort of thing that you mark down into the "game changer" category as it will upend the fabric already in place for a larger, more varied, and more dense one in its place. In other words, you're basically adding a central CBD and scale of a medium sized metropolitan area of 1.5 - 2.0 million people in Northern Virginia by getting Amazon.
Then last but not the least are the companies that will now move to Northern Virginia and/or expand operations there to be close to Amazon, which in and of itself will spur job creation in the thousands to tens of thousands. GeekWire, for example, is a company that is going to open their own HQ2 in the same city as Amazon to follow and cover them there just as they do in Seattle. There are many others that will do the same as well by expanding operations near Amazon's HQ2. Leading to more development of housing, hotels, and apartments all throughout the region and of course more office space. Also consider that 40,000 workers would generally be a total household set of nearly 80,000 people total when accounting for spouses and children of those Amazon workers that will make the move to the DMV as well.
In summary, what I mentioned earlier is that Amazon wont fix the DMV's problem, which is that the region has a very weak identity abroad as a city when the government is not in play. However, steps like HQ2 do move the DMV in the right direction. First you diversify your economy with more private sector enterprises and then by the people that they hire and those willing to make the jump along with them will eventually begin to change the culture of the DMV over a period of time (long-term thing). First at the neighborhood level and then as it gains traction on a region-wide scale. The DMV is an area that desperately needed an injection of a different type of culture from government. As noted earlier, among world capital cities, Washington is very important but culturally it is quite stale and boring compared to the cities that have a deep rooted personality and character that goes well beyond their function as their nation's capital. Those cities are worldwide destination cities, whereas Washington is not. This sort of problem is fixed little-by-little over a long period of time. Getting things like Amazon doesn't mean that the DMV will produce the next SxSW but what it will do is put people with more varied ideas in the DMV region and that diversity in thought can eventually lead to creative and fun things for everyone in the region to enjoy later on. It adds dimensions to the region and it's quite needed.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 12-11-2018 at 05:48 PM..
Amazon going to Long Island City was smart. Long Island City is expensive where luxury apartments go for well over $3k a month for apartments that look more attractive than what you'll get in Manhattan. So Amazon will absorb the area. Im sure Bezos overheard all the critics of him attempting to ruin the cost of living for all cities so Long Island City only made sense.
Not sure what it will do for New York in the future because this feels like another company setting up shop in the big apple. I doubt most New Yorkers even know its coming.
Amazon going to Long Island City was smart. Long Island City is expensive where luxury apartments go for well over $3k a month for apartments that look more attractive than what you'll get in Manhattan. So Amazon will absorb the area. Im sure Bezos overheard all the critics of him attempting to ruin the cost of living for all cities so Long Island City only made sense.
Not sure what it will do for New York in the future because this feels like another company setting up shop in the big apple. I doubt most New Yorkers even know its coming.
Last point is the key.
I don't think Amazon will have much of an effect on New York besides the neighborhoods it is in.
New York has a massive economy, one of the largest in the world, so the addition of a satellite corporate office will hardly turn NYC upside down.
Peoples obsession with Amazon on here is a bit strange to me. I have spoken to some of my colleagues in New York and they didn't even know Amazon picked a winner. In any other US city that would not be the case.
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