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Why not? If the cost of living continues to increase in places like Atlanta, Nashville, and the NC cities, Richmond could eventually become a cheaper alternative. It has many of the same positives of North Carolina and doesn't have a lot of built in negatives like OKC does. I don't think Richmond is really poised to boom imminently but I think it could happen.
Plus Richmond's neighborhoods and housing stock are pretty incredible. They've had some crime issues over the past, and some population loss but now it seems to be coming back slowly and steadily, with some inner city development/redevelopment.
Historically speaking, Kansas City isn't new to the "big city" game.
If you still have checks from your bank, they have fractional numbers at the top right; these are the numbers that used to be used to determine which bank they came from (they've been superseded by the magnetic ABA routing numbers on the bottom of the check).
The first part of the numerator applied to the city or region; the 20 biggest cities in the country were so numbered. Banks in Kansas City have fractional numbers that begin with "18," for that was the city's rank when the system was set up along with the Federal Reserve System in 1914.
And speaking of the Federal Reserve, KC is home to one of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks nationwide. Again, that should tell you something about the relative importance of the city back in the early decades of the 20th century.
And up until 1990 or thereabouts, its metropolitan area was one of the nation's 25 largest.
A number of cities have passed it since then (it's now #31). And I suspect some of the cities on this list will pass it in the future, in particular Austin and Charlotte.
But I don't see it stagnating to the point where its metropolitan population barely budges over the next 30 years. I'd put the 2050 figure at about 2.7 million.
And the city already has a full complement of "big city" cultural amenities and institutions (renowned art museum, contemporary art museum, several niche museums, the National World War I Museum, symphony orchestra, opera company, public library system, scientific research library [Linda Hall], jazz clubs, concert venues, so on). Some of the other cities on this list, most notably Richmond IMO, have a fair number of these as well. I really don't see the other cities growing these institutions to the stature of the ones I've listed, or creating new ones, in the future if they don't have them already - though Charlotte IMO might add some of these as it accumulates more wealth.
But since I'm supposed to pick winners in all of these categories:
1. Future population growth. Will these cities/metros still be in the same peer group of cities with one another 30 years from now?
Estimated metros:
Austin 4 million
Oklahoma City 1.7 million
Kansas City 2.7 million
Indianapolis 2.5 million
Columbus 2.7 million
Nashville 2.6 million
Richmond 1.9 million
Charlotte 3.5 million
Raleigh 2.2 million
Jacksonville 2.5 million
2. Brightest future / economic prosperity.
Austin, Charlotte
3. Big city Amenities - such libraries and museums
Austin, Charlotte, Kansas City, Richmond
4. Food/restaurants
Kansas City will continue to broaden; Austin will develop
5. Culture
Columbus, Kansas City, Richmond
6. Cost of living
Columbus, Indianapolis, Kansas City
7. Nightlife
Nashville, Austin
8. Infrastructure
Kansas City, Charlotte
9. Crimes
Austin, Oklahoma City lowest
10. Diversity
Richmond, Nashville
11. Education levels of residents
Charlotte
12. Public transportation
Charlotte, Nashville (that city will try a transit Great Leap Forward again and succeed this time)
13. Health care
Columbus, Kansas City, Nashville, Raleigh
14. Street/road/highway congestion.
Kansas City, Indianapolis lowest in that order
I do like Kansas City a lot. I spent a week there in late 2015--can definitely see the appeal.
Maybe I'm off from my estimate--it could grow decently steadily over the next 30 years. I like KC much more than St Louis, as far as Missouri cities go.
Tons of amazing museums and cultural opportunities in KC--I was so surprised.
I do like Kansas City a lot. I spent a week there in late 2015--can definitely see the appeal.
Maybe I'm off from my estimate--it could grow decently steadily over the next 30 years. I like KC much more than St Louis, as far as Missouri cities go.
Tons of amazing museums and cultural opportunities in KC--I was so surprised.
It really is a nice city. I have been to the jazz festival in years past. KC has great restaurants as well. I need to visit soon.
I do like Kansas City a lot. I spent a week there in late 2015--can definitely see the appeal.
Maybe I'm off from my estimate--it could grow decently steadily over the next 30 years. I like KC much more than St Louis, as far as Missouri cities go.
Tons of amazing museums and cultural opportunities in KC--I was so surprised.
The metropolitan area I call home now, Philadelphia, is a slow-growth metropolis; its population has expanded at a rate of something like 1-3 percent annually since 1990.
I recall doing a comparison with Greater Kansas City in the early 2000s and came up with a population growth figure for the latter around 6-8 percent annually, or about twice Philadelphia's.
And the region around it is becoming more interconnected as its cities grow towards one another. St. Joseph, which is pretty much stagnant, is the exception, but KC's Northland is growing towards it, and Kansas City International Airport is actually closer to St. Joseph than it is to the more southerly reaches of the metropolitan area. Meanwhile, Lawrence - where the presence of the University of Kansas, which employs a good chunk of Douglas County residents, keeps its county out of the Kansas City MSA - became part of the Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City CSA sometime after the 2010 census, and the urbanized areas of Johnson and Douglas counties will probably form a continuous belt along Kansas Highway 10 by the early 2020s. I see from Wikipedia that the latest estimates already put the MSA population at 2.4 million.
(The core cities of the MSAs and µSAs that comprise the Kansas City CSA are: Metropolitan - Kansas City and St. Joseph in Missouri, Lawrence in Kansas; Micropolitan - Warrensburg in Missouri, Atchison and Ottawa in Kansas.)
KC's boom years are loooong past, but it's also far, far from busted - or rusted (Kansas City, Kansas, a notable exception).
First off, saying KC will only have 2.2 million in 2050 is pretty silly.
KC is around 2.2 million now (2.5 million in the CSA). The KC local planning organization MARC, has the metro growing by an additional 550,000 by 2040 and their estimates are always on the conservative side. So that would put the KC MSA at nearly 2.8 million around 2040. The metro will likely be around 3 million (3.6 or so in the CSA) in 2050. These are pretty conservative. While KC is not booming, the city is kind of going through a bit of a rebirth and it could become a much more popular city nationally in the 20 years. Also, KC by far has more of a history of being a "big city" than any of the other cities on this list and it for sure has a more urban built environment than another of the other cities.
Anyway, here is my reply to the OP:
1. Future population growth. Will these cities/metros still be in the same peer group of cities with one another 30 years from now? (They are not in same tier now. OKC, Richmond, Raleigh and Jacksonville are a tier below the others). I think for the most part, that will remain the same but Nashville will be more of a peer to KC and Charlotte and Charlotte will likely pull away from the rest.
2. Brightest future / economic prosperity. (Nashville, Charlotte)
3. Big city Amenities - such libraries and museums (Kansas City, Charlotte)
4. Food/restaurants (Kansas City, Richmond)
5. Culture (Kansas City, Richmond, Nashville)
6. Cost of living (Oklahoma City, Jacksonville)
7. Night life (Columbus, Charlotte, Kansas City)
8. Infrastructure (Charlotte, Kansas City)
9. Crimes (not sure, none are great)
10. Diversity (Richmond)
11. Education levels of residents (Raleigh)
12. Public transportation (Charlotte)
13. Health care (Have no idea)
14. Street/road/highway congestion (Nashville)
I'm an East Coaster. I lived in Indianapolis for three years. It's OK - nothing exceptional. Kansas City didn't stand out. Never been to OKC and no desire to.
I'm an East Coaster. I lived in Indianapolis for three years. It's OK - nothing exceptional. Kansas City didn't stand out. Never been to OKC and no desire to.
I love Raleigh and Charlotte.
Charlotte is okay. I certainly would not call it east coast though or at least it's nothing like the big east coast cities.
I will never understand the appeal of Raleigh. The place bores me to death. Downtown doesn't feel much bigger than downtown Wichita. Seems like a nice enough college town, but for the life of me, I can't see it as a peer to other mid sized metros with similar regional populations.
The East Coast is colonial history, port cities and blue bloods. It’s salad forks and good table manners. It’s politically and economically connected families. It’s generational wealth and college legacy...and slate roofs.
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