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I'd like to see an argument, city vs. city comparison, of how any one of these cities is more important than San Diego going into 2020 (I took out Denver):
Orlando
Tampa
Phoenix
Charlotte
Portland
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Austin
Nashville
Baltimore
How are we measuring "importance?"
You could make a case for Charlotte or Baltimore currently due to the market niches they fill. If Austins growth rate and rapidly growing IT sector keep their current pace one could very much argue them as well by end of decade.
You could make a case for Charlotte or Baltimore currently due to the market niches they fill. If Austins growth rate and rapidly growing IT sector keep their current pace one could very much argue them as well by end of decade.
Well that's part of the question. What holistic definition of "importance" means that Orlando, Austin, etc. all surpass San Diego? This wasn't just one or two...this was 5-6 cities bumping SD off the top ~20.
I can see an argument for Charlotte (now + future) and Baltimore (now). I also believe that San Diego is more important than the Inland Empire or Phoenix, despite the larger population.
I'm not sure how Austin's performance in a single industry (tech) means it surpasses San Diego. Especially since San Diego's own tech scene (biotech/pharma/life sciences, telecommunications, data science/analystics) has done just as well based on numerous metrics (arguably better, even). So let's say those negate each other.
Beyond that, Austin has:
- State government
- "Live Music" (struggling to come up with stuff....am I missing anything?)
San Diego
- most significant military concentration in country
- San Diego's GDP is $245B and Austin's is $146B. A $100 billion difference is no small joke.
- major destination (leisure + business)
- major trade hub (land, sea, air)
- Busiest border crossing in the world and 4th largest binational region in the world(with our largest trading partner). Not to mention the significant amount of development happening at the border on both sides.
It's just not making sense to me. Austin, Nashville, Orlando...
Well that's part of the question. What holistic definition of "importance" means that Orlando, Austin, etc. all surpass San Diego? This wasn't just one or two...this was 5-6 cities bumping SD off the top ~20.
I can see an argument for Charlotte (now + future) and Baltimore (now). I also believe that San Diego is more important than the Inland Empire or Phoenix, despite the larger population.
Yes, Phoenix doesn't excel in any one area but it's still a metro of almost 5 million people. While the Inland Empire is a mixed bag because it's a hybridized economic area linked to LA
Quote:
Originally Posted by newgensandiego
I'm not sure how Austin's performance in a single industry (tech) means it surpasses San Diego. Especially since San Diego's own tech scene (biotech/pharma/life sciences, telecommunications, data science/analystics) has done just as well based on numerous metrics (arguably better, even). So let's say those negate each other.
Beyond that, Austin has:
- State government
- "Live Music" (struggling to come up with stuff....am I missing anything?)
San Diego
- most significant military concentration in country
- San Diego's GDP is $245B and Austin's is $146B. A $100 billion difference is no small joke.
- major destination (leisure + business)
- major trade hub (land, sea, air)
- Busiest border crossing in the world and 4th largest binational region in the world(with our largest trading partner). Not to mention the significant amount of development happening at the border on both sides.
It's just not making sense to me. Austin, Nashville, Orlando...
Hence *end of decade*
Austin currently is not on the same economic tier as city like San Diego, but and it's a big butt... it's economic gears are turning in a very similar way SF started to a decade and half ago minus the space constraints and California regulations, so it's better poised for growth.
Yes, Phoenix doesn't excel in any one area but it's still a metro of almost 5 million people. While the Inland Empire is a mixed bag because it's a hybridized economic area linked to LA
I don't associate population size or growth with importance. Otherwise, Dhaka, Bangledesh would rival New York.
Quote:
Hence *end of decade*
Right, but the opinion is still based on a trajectory. That trajectory is informed by past and current performance. Austin's trajectory is more or less the same as San Diego's in terms of tech, which unlike San Diego, is the main thing that makes Austin relevant.
Frankly, I think San Diego's chances are better in the long-run. Austin simply doesn't have any institution as impactful as UC San Diego to produce the homegrown talent. UCSD graduates more engineers than Berkeley and Stanford combined.
The gamechanger is that UCSD grads were historically drawn to the bay area and SD was losing a lot of that talent. Active efforts to keep these skilled workers in San Diego are transforming the city.
Quote:
Austin currently is not on the same economic tier as city like San Diego, but and it's a big butt... it's economic gears are turning in a very similar way SF started to a decade and half ago minus the space constraints and California regulations, so it's better poised for growth.
It's entirely possible, but it's not going to surpass San Diego in less than 10-15 years. Austin's economy would have to grow $10 billion per year to catch up with San Diego (which is just one measure). I don't see that happening.
San Diego is doing too well on its own. It might not get the media hype that Austin gets, but it's been a pretty crazy run for us. Just today, the SD Union-Tribune had an article on a $164M life sciences/biotech campus with 200K SF of labs that breaks ground in 5 days.
Equally promising is the push to move more startups downtown, which continues DTSD's 20-year renaissance. UCSD is building a downtown center and a separate effort is underway to redevelop our downtown mall into a 800K SF tech center.
Quote:
Austin will be a major player in the 2030's imho
I think so too. It's very exciting! I love visiting Austin, it's a great city. Hopefully they can keep up with the pace of development. It takes more than attracting new residents.
Trust me...San Diego is the poster child of crazy population growth...we've already lived it and it's not easy.
Last edited by newgensandiego; 01-04-2020 at 07:32 PM..
Not reading this entire thread, but will say, that offhand, I couldn't tell you what San Diego is known for...other than weather and beaches. It's just not a California city that comes to mind as "major." Not saying that to be snarky...I just don't associate it with an industry, a brand, a growing metropolis, etc.
Not reading this entire thread, but will say, that offhand, I couldn't tell you what San Diego is known for...other than weather and beaches. It's just not a California city that comes to mind as "major." Not saying that to be snarky...I just don't associate it with an industry, a brand, a growing metropolis, etc.
Haha, this is definitely the opinion of 90% of people. It's challenging to change long-time perceptions/stereotypes! It's challenging for a city to create/maintain three different brands/identifies (military, beach/travel, and innovation).
But alas, the difference between perception and reality matter. San Diego is not a "major" metropolis, but it's definitely top 20 in importance. Sorry Orlando
Excellent post EXCEPT for Austin being a cheaper option to DFW and Houston. I reside in D/FW and am from Houston. I visit Austin frequently. Its actually not cheaper as its growth, as you indicate, has been almost hyper since 2000., thus, the average price of a home there is the highest in the state. There aren't any other costs of living there that materially differ from D/FW or Houston. Houston's housing prices have really moderated due to slowed growth in the Energy sector.
Atlanta is feeling greater heat with the lost of Suntrust, and Amazon's mini hub coming to Nashville. Charlotte also has become American Airlines second busiest hub.
Could you please explain how this? Especially since Atlanta job growth is in the top
Haha, this is definitely the opinion of 90% of people. It's challenging to change long-time perceptions/stereotypes! It's challenging for a city to create/maintain three different brands/identifies (military, beach/travel, and innovation).
But alas, the difference between perception and reality matter. San Diego is not a "major" metropolis, but it's definitely top 20 in importance. Sorry Orlando
But name one other city that is top 5 in all three
Im not saying you are wrong but I havent seen any evidence of that being true.It wouldnt matter either way
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