Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Which cities will combine to form a new census designation first?
Cincinnati-Dayton CSA 2.9 million
Raleigh-Durham recombination MSA 1.8 million
Nashville-Clarksville CSA 2.3 million
Norfolk-Richmond CSA 3 million
Orlando-Tampa CSA 5.8 million
Sorry, the CSAs vs MSA threw me for a second. Regardless, I’m assuming the Triangle would reform first, but perhaps CSA rules are looser and therefore a lower threshold to overcome. Maybe Dayton-Cincinnati.
None will "combine". I have worked with geographic/demographic stats in 1985. The U.S. Census Bureau has the most skitzo way of determining counties that are included in metro areas with no real, consistent guidelines. I've had to deal with them in the past and, though they're good to deal with on a personal level, they have very inconsistent to non-existent guidelines in several areas of their data metrics. They separate Raleigh and Durham as separate metros, which is laughable. For years, in the Charlotte area, Anson County was included, even though it takes over an hour to drive from Uptown to Anson's central area and Anson County offers absolutley zero to the Charlotte area demographically, geographically, recreationally, educationally, or economically. At the same time, Iredell County was not included and was the polar opposite of Anson on every level.
Raleigh and Durham are geographically, demographically related and intertwined and will always be in the same metro. The other metros you listed are too far from central cities (ie beyond the 45 mile radius) to ever be included in their neighboring metro. They're either clearly independent to themselves (like Washington and Baltimore) or don't offer enough to the larger metro to be included (like Nashville and Clarksville). Beyond 45 miles (generally speaking), the metro influence drops of dramatically. Commute and travel times/distances are too great to be included. So though these metros abutt against each other, they will more than likely never be included as one metro or "merge".
The only real exception nationally I see is the Bay Area. I know a lot of people will disagree, but San Francisco and San Jose share an enormous amount of demography on many levels, even though they're just slightly over the 45 mile threshold. Even the SAN FRANCISCO 49ers play just outside of San Jose. At this point, it makes no sense to separate them. Anyway, that's just my take of what I think the best way to evaluate and formulate metros are. Going solely on the government standard can sometimes lead, IMO, to a lot of misinformation and incorrect/inconsistent formulation methods. Interesting thread!
It won’t be Dayton/Cincinnati much to the disappointment of the CIN-DAY screeching sperglords, consider the matter closed.
It's a surprising conclusion when you can see the amount of development bridging those areas, but with those commuter numbers, it looks like it's still a ways off, even for a combined CSA.
Orlando/Tampa won't happen. The Green Swamp is in the way. If anything, Lakeland will become its own separate entity (if it hasn't already) and become one with the rest of Polk County.
The only real exception nationally I see is the Bay Area. I know a lot of people will disagree, but San Francisco and San Jose share an enormous amount of demography on many levels, even though they're just slightly over the 45 mile threshold. Even the SAN FRANCISCO 49ers play just outside of San Jose. At this point, it makes no sense to separate them. Anyway, that's just my take of what I think the best way to evaluate and formulate metros are. Going solely on the government standard can sometimes lead, IMO, to a lot of misinformation and incorrect/inconsistent formulation methods. Interesting thread!
Agree with you about SF. It's very common for young employees at South Bay tech companies to live in SF for the city life, commuting south via Caltrain or company shuttle. And it's equally common for workers in SF to live south to escape that same city life and (even more absurd) cost of living, commuting the other direction.
From my perspective it very much is a single metro that simply has many ridiculously long commutes.
Orlando/Tampa won't happen. The Green Swamp is in the way. If anything, Lakeland will become its own separate entity (if it hasn't already) and become one with the rest of Polk County.
This.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
