The Cities Americans Want to Flee, and Where They Want to Go (quality, ranking)

[mhays25]

Yes, California isn't accommodating growth, and that's resulting in enormous housing prices in the big cities.

Some reasonable upzoning and reduced processes would allow plenty of growth within existing developed areas at far more reasonable prices.

[newgensandiego]

Originally Posted by _Uncommon_

You mean like what’s currently happening in California?

California's economic model is far from perfect, but I'd rather have a state economy grounded in being the most innovative place on earth with powerhouse academic institutions than one that relies on...retirees, low taxes, Latin American investments, and tourism. It doesn't take a genius to realize the pillars of the Florida economy are extremely vulnerable. Frankly, if you mix in climate change, the long-term prospects of Florida are absolutely terrible.

California's biggest problem is that it isn't building enough housing. It needs to allow more density in urban areas and make significant investments in transit.

[newgensandiego]

Originally Posted by _Uncommon_

Yeah, exactly. And in what world is this a good thing? You say these things like you believe all the poor people in California will one day somehow eventually move out, leaving nothing but the mega-rich living amongst just their peers, creating a perfect economical system. That’s a joke. The middle class in California is disappearing, leaving only the super-poor and the super-wealthy; the Haves vs the Have-nots. The disturbing state of California cities with absolute record homelessness, drug abuse in plain sight, an indifferent police force, and continuously soaring cost living and tax rate will keep this state in perpetual decline. I lived in San Francisco and visited LA for a couple weekends in 2017 and was totally shocked and perturbed by the disgusting homelessness, trash, graffiti etc and no one seemed to give a damn. The Golden State has absolutely lost its glow.

California's failure is not its economy. It's the state and local indifference to housing problems. The same people complaining about high housing costs and homelessness are also blocking new housing.

[elchevere]

Florida does have the 4th largest economy in the US, surpassing $1 trillion GDP. Add agriculture, international trade (40% of all exports to South America and Caribbean pass through the state), aerospace and aviation, and finance—with some hedge funds already having relocated here as a direct result of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act that compliments the already existent large international finance hub. Tourism is the largest, but not only, industry in the state.

Some of the same people calling for FL to be underwater in 30-80 years were the same ones saying CA would fall into the Pacific after “the big one” hits (and prior to recent wildfires plus its own sea rise issues down the road). FL is at the forefront of spending millions now to address the issue—will see what happens...Hurricanes are anyone’s guess but FL did recover from Andrew, Wilma and Irma.

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

California's economic model is far from perfect, but I'd rather have a state economy grounded in being the most innovative place on earth with powerhouse academic institutions than one that relies on...retirees, low taxes, Latin American investments, and tourism. It doesn't take a genius to realize the pillars of the Florida economy are extremely vulnerable. Frankly, if you mix in climate change, the long-term prospects of Florida are absolutely terrible.

California's biggest problem is that it isn't building enough housing. It needs to allow more density in urban areas and make significant investments in transit.

[newgensandiego]

Originally Posted by elchevere

Florida does have the 4th largest economy in the US, surpassing $1 trillion GDP. Add agriculture, international trade (40% of all exports to South America and Caribbean pass through the state), aerospace and aviation, and finance—with some hedge funds already having relocated here as a direct result of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act that compliments the already existent large international finance hub. Tourism is the largest, but not only, industry in the state.

Florida has the 4th largest economy simply because it is the 3rd largest state. That doesn't make it a strong or sustainable economy in the long-run.

Latin American economies are historically very unstable. At any given time, 2-4 economies are in crisis. So again, a major pillar of the Florida economy is actually very vulnerable and weak.

Also, we're talking about the state of Florida, not just one city. As a whole, the state has a terrible economic model that's setting itself up for failure.

[elchevere]

I was talking about the state...not one city (agriculture, tourism, aviation, and aerospace is spread throughout the state, not concentrated in one city)....Florida's GDP growth is on the uptrend not on the decline....more curious to see the long term impacts of the TCJA; specifically, if more businesses continue to relocate here in addition to individuals as a result of that law.

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

Florida has the 4th largest economy simply because it is the 3rd largest state. That doesn't make it a strong or sustainable economy in the long-run.

Latin American economies are historically very unstable. At any given time, 2-4 economies are in crisis. So again, a major pillar of the Florida economy is actually very vulnerable and weak.

Also, we're talking about the state of Florida, not just one city. As a whole, the state has a terrible economic model that's setting itself up for failure.

[newgensandiego]

Originally Posted by elchevere

I was talking about the state...not one city (agriculture, tourism, aviation, and aerospace is spread throughout the state, not concentrated in one city)....Florida's GDP growth is on the uptrend not on the decline....more curious to see the long term impacts of the TCJA; specifically, if more businesses continue to relocate here in addition to individuals as a result of that law.

Either way, I find it unimpressive overall. FYI Florida's agricultural sector is ranked 19th in value, so not sure why that is notable.

But back to my point...is there any stable [major] pillar of Florida's economy that isn't totally dependent on extremely vulnerable conditions?

I'm trying to figure out what event will cause the "rust belt" decline of Florida. Probably a combination of the baby boomer die-off and the suburban sprawl infrastructure time-bomb. Sadly it will probably hit when Florida finally gets some half-decent wages and people have built up equity in their homes.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

Either way, I find it unimpressive overall. FYI Florida's agricultural sector is ranked 19th in value, so not sure why that is notable.

But back to my point...is there any stable [major] pillar of Florida's economy that isn't totally dependent on extremely vulnerable conditions?

I'm trying to figure out what event will cause the "rust belt" decline of Florida. Probably a combination of the baby boomer die-off and the suburban sprawl infrastructure time-bomb. Sadly it will probably hit when Florida finally gets some half-decent wages and people have built up equity in their homes.

I had to Google that. Yep. #19. I assumed cows and oranges would rank it higher.

I’ve run into a few tech software shops recently in Fort Myers. They hire new grads and pay them chicken feed. My frame of reference is Boston where anyone with a few years experience is making 6 figures. For meatball stuff a new grad from a nothing special state school can handle, I guess it works. Better continuity than H-1B from India. I wouldn’t want to take on anything “hard” with that kind of team.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

California's economic model is far from perfect, but I'd rather have a state economy grounded in being the most innovative place on earth with powerhouse academic institutions than one that relies on...retirees, low taxes, Latin American investments, and tourism. It doesn't take a genius to realize the pillars of the Florida economy are extremely vulnerable. Frankly, if you mix in climate change, the long-term prospects of Florida are absolutely terrible.

California's biggest problem is that it isn't building enough housing. It needs to allow more density in urban areas and make significant investments in transit.

The Boston issue is that there’s plenty of affordable housing within 50 miles. You just can’t do the commute because the highways are saturated and commuter rail is inadequate. My summer house is 62 miles from South Station. I can make Logan airport in 65 minutes on a Saturday. Car or car plus train commute is at least 2 hours unless I’m rolling by 4:30am.

[elchevere]

all of the sectors I mentioned above....tourism, export, agriculture, aviation/aviation parts, aerospace, real estate development, and finance....the state has survived hurricanes, a Zika scare (which did not amount to much), recessions (domestic and those effecting others abroad), mortgage crisis, and more. Florida is susceptible to recession like other states.

Maybe in 30 or 70 years IF key cities are under water and real estate values collapse (or, prior to that, banks stop handing out 30 year mortgages or insurance companies stop offering policies) that would be the one thing that would cause a "rust belt decline" but for the foreseeable future a year-round warm weather, water surrounded state with low taxes (how many states can make that claim) is an attractive combination to many people from within the US as well as abroad whether they build their wealth here OR bring it with them and is a major reason why 900 people a day are moving into the state (more than any other state as well and not all retirees)--and let's not pretend traditional higher paying career paths in medicine, law, sales, and entrepreneurial businesses do not exist here either....I also expect the trend of more people being able to work from remote locations to continue and, in that regard, I believe Florida will fare quite well from a relocation standpoint as far as peoples choices......not sure about suburban sprawl--or, if so--not for another 20 years...has not hurt Florida or Texas so far. There are certainly those who are getting priced out of certain areas of the state and, like elsewhere, are adapting or moving yet FL is not seeing the extreme income disparities and situations other cities are experiencing to the same extent (we do have homeless, but not anywhere as close to many other cities)...and I have not seen fewer essential services or worse infrastructure in a no state income tax state than I saw in other high tax states I have lived in--if anything, it's slightly better.

and I've seen one report (USNWR) that ranks Florida #2 in the country for fiscal stability--so the state and its economy appears sustainable for some time barring some unforeseen event.

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

Either way, I find it unimpressive overall. FYI Florida's agricultural sector is ranked 19th in value, so not sure why that is notable.

But back to my point...is there any stable [major] pillar of Florida's economy that isn't totally dependent on extremely vulnerable conditions?

I'm trying to figure out what event will cause the "rust belt" decline of Florida. Probably a combination of the baby boomer die-off and the suburban sprawl infrastructure time-bomb. Sadly it will probably hit when Florida finally gets some half-decent wages and people have built up equity in their homes.