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It will be interesting to watch. Atlanta is certainly growing strong. Miami I don't think will surpass DC for various reasons, but mainly that DC has a lot surrounding it that may become part of it's MSA one day that today is not. A lot could change with these growth patterns in the latter part of this decade. I fully expect an immigration curve and rise to take place at some point in which the top MSA's for immigrant growth would be NY, Miami, LA, DC, and Houston.
Dark horse down the line will be Phoenix in a 20-30 year stretch. I think it will numerically continue to out grow Atlanta and may challenge it's place although still far behind right now. Phoenix will not stay at #10 though.
Unless these changes happen quickly for DC, Atlanta is poised to hop over it in 5 to 7 years with the current trends. There is only a 200k population difference between both the metros and Atlanta is gaining around 40-50k more residents than DC every year..
Phoenix is growing phenomenally well but it there is a difference of a million residents between Atlanta and Phoenix and Atlanta is growing at a very healthy rate too. If we extrapolate the current population growth, it will take 40 years for Phoenix to catch up to Atlanta..
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Originally Posted by USARoadTrip
Unless these changes happen quickly for DC, Atlanta is poised to hop over it in 5 to 7 years with the current trends. There is only a 200k population difference between both the metros and Atlanta is gaining around 40-50k more residents than DC every year..
Phoenix is growing phenomenally well but it there is a difference of a million residents between Atlanta and Phoenix and Atlanta is growing at a very healthy rate too. If we extrapolate the current population growth, it will take 40 years for Phoenix to catch up to Atlanta..
That's only been over the past 4 years or so. DC MSA at the beginning of the decade added more people than Atlanta MSA did for a couple of years, around 2012-2014 they added around the same amount of people. Towards 2016 and beyond is when DC's dropped more due to less int'l migrants. That trend would have to continue for well over a decade every year until Atlanta MSA catches it. Let's also remember the square milage difference in both MSA's. I welcome the growth in metro Atlanta, hopefully it has an affect on that state politically.
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Originally Posted by PerseusVeil
St. Louis' MSA appears to be down by about 2,000+ year over year, and Baltimore's MSA appears to be down by about the same margin. This will keep St. Louis in the #20 slot until that changes, although both MSAs remain above their 2010 Census numbers at this time.
I'm not certain what's going on with Baltimore, especially with its proximity to DC, but St. Louis' MSA is being hit by the city itself that hasn't stabilized population wise yet, in addition to shrinking Illinois suburban counties.
The lower half of Baltimore's metro primarily Howard County is starting to trend more towards DC every year. The two primary population centers Baltimore city, and Baltimore County both are in population decline. Not severe decline in numbers, but both were negative growth. Howard County still a part of Baltimore's MSA grew by over 3,000, but it is certainly a middle ground only 10 miles from Baltimore and 20 or so from DC. In the most recent years the growth of Howard and Anne Arundel counties both has been enough to keep it's MSA population growth above 0. This time however the 9k loss from Baltimore City and a loss in Baltimore County was too much and dropped it further. In fact Baltimore should have passed STL over the passed year, but still sits 2000 behind.
Here were the largest destinations for domestic migrants 2018-2019:
Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix): 57,477
Clark, NV (Las Vegas): 31,643
Denton, TX (Dallas/FTW): 21,053
Collin, TX (Dallas/FTW): 19,952
Williamson, TX (Austin): 19,513
Polk, FL (Orlando): 16,683
Pasco, FL (Tampa): 15,563
Lee, FL (Fort Myers): 15,043
Pinal, AZ (Tucson): 14,180
Travis, TX (Austin): 13,964
Fort Bend, TX (Houston): 13,487
Montgomery, TX (Houston): 13,423
Riverside, CA (Riverside): 13,170
Lake County, FL (Orlando): 11,162
Wake, NC (Raleigh): 10,857
Ada, ID (Boise): 10,815
St. Johns, FL (Jacksonville): 10,628
Horry, SC (Myrtle Beach): 10,315
Looking at this, its overwhelmingly apparent that Americans have a preference for warm weather, suburban environments.
By contrast, here are the counties that lost the largest number of domestic residents from 2018-2019:
Los Angeles, CA (Los Angeles): -100,808
Cook, IL (Chicago): -52,810
Kings, NY (NYC): -45,945
Miami-Dade (Miami/FLL): -45,174
Queens, NY (NYC): -41,789
Bronx, NY (NYC): -31,203
Harris, TX (Houston): -30,449
Santa Clara, CA (San Jose): -28,421
Dallas, TX (Dallas): -24,389
Orange, CA (Los Angeles): -21,358
San Diego, CA (San Diego): -19,731
Fairfax, VA (Washington DC): -14,214
Honolulu, HI (Honolulu): -12,247
Broward, FL (Miami/FLL): -12,153
Bay, FL (Panama City): -12,080
Wayne, MI (Detroit): -12,052
New York, NY (NYC): -11,730
Alameda, CA (San Francisco): -11,626
Butte, CA (Chico): -11,249
Suffolk, MA (Boston): -11,034
Baltimore, MD (Baltimore): -10,919
Middlesex, MA (Boston): -10,597
Hudson, NJ (NYC): -10,548
Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia): -10,446
DuPage, IL (Chicago): 10,009
Is Dallas county not reaping the benefits of the domestic growth in a metro that saw it had the largest democratic growth this past decade? Those are interesting numbers. Collin, Denton, and I bet Tarrant County are all positive. People are still more attracted to the suburbs.
Harris County doesn’t surprise. How many years has it been on losing domestic residences now within the past 5 years?
That's only been over the past 4 years or so. DC MSA at the beginning of the decade added more people than Atlanta MSA did for a couple of years, around 2012-2014 they added around the same amount of people. Towards 2016 and beyond is when DC's dropped more due to less int'l migrants. That trend would have to continue for well over a decade every year until Atlanta MSA catches it. Let's also remember the square milage difference in both MSA's. I welcome the growth in metro Atlanta, hopefully it has an affect on that state politically.
Commuting patterns determine MSAs, not square milage. Though, Atlanta may not catch DC for a while if a recession occurs.
Last edited by cdw1084; 03-26-2020 at 04:43 PM..
Reason: I
1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA- 22,589,036
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA- 18,711,436
3. Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA- 9,825,325
4. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA CSA- 9,814,928
5. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA- 9,665,887
6. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT CSA- 8,287,710
7. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA- 8,057,796
8. Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA- 7,253,193
9. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA- 7,209,620
10. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL CSA- 6,889,936
11. Atlanta--Athens-Clarke County--Sandy Springs, GA-AL CSA- 6,853,392
12. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI CSA- 5,341,994
13. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ CSA- 5,002,221
14. Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA- 4,903,675
15. Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL CSA- 4,160,646
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA- 4,027,861
17. Denver-Aurora, CO CSA- 3,617,927
18. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA- 3,586,918
19. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA- 3,259,710
20. St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA- 2,907,648
21. Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC CSA- 2,797,636
22. Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA- 2,641,048
23. Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA- 2,639,124
24. Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA- 2,603,259
25. San Antonio-New Braunfels-Pearsall, TX CSA- 2,571,266
DC-Baltimore is under 11k from surpassing Chicago by CSA, and separated a tiny bit more over the Bay Area.
Dallas CSA is now firmly over 8 million.
Houston surpasses Philadelphia CSA.
Atlanta and Miami CSA in a dead heat.
Phoenix CSA is already 5 milly now, with MSA coming up next.
Minneapolis above 4 million by CSA.
If the census and estimate numbers are near each other next year, it will be safe to say that DC-a more csa will pass Chicago. In fact, Chicago CSA could find itself falling to 5th by 2022.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Originally Posted by cdw1084
Commuting patterns determine MSAs, not square milage. Though, Atlanta may not catch DC for a while if a recession occurs.
Well county's with 25% commuting to another core county determine how many counties are added, not the size of the city. The DC region has the 2nd or 3rd largest mega commute in the nation, yet is 6th in MSA population. DC, Philly, and Boston each have the smallest sq mileage of the top 10 (well now 11) metro areas. Each due to being cut off by other population centers.
And although maybe inevitable due to what's going on, a recession is certainly not something we are rooting for.
Last edited by the resident09; 03-26-2020 at 05:02 PM..
If the census and estimate numbers are near each other next year, it will be safe to say that DC-a more csa will pass Chicago. In fact, Chicago CSA could find itself falling to 5th by 2022.
The Bay Area is already over 10 million, the OMB just hasnt caught up yet.
Im fairly certain the Bay Area CSA will be adding Salinas(Monterey County) sooner than later. Neighboring Santa Cruz is already part of the Bay Area, so is San Benito, and now so is Merced.
Monterey County is currently working on a commuter rail to the Bay Area to alleviate the horrendously terrible traffic which requires going over a mountain pass that actually snows from time to time!
my pic
Well county's with 25% commuting to another core county determine how many counties are added, not the size of the city. The DC region has the 2nd or 3rd largest mega commute in the nation, yet is 6th in MSA population. DC, Philly, and Boston each have the smallest sq mileage of the top 10 (well now 11) metro areas. Each due to being cut off by other population centers.
And although maybe inevitable due to what's going on, a recession is certainly not something we are rooting for.
Correct, the NE MSAs are smaller in land because of closer population centers as well. At least, they can continue to claim the urbanity factor because of such.
Also, 'm not rooting for a recession. I just stated what could happen if a recession occurs.
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