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Charlotte has increased over the last three years or so but still isn't a particularly violent city. It's going thru a rough stretch relative to what it normally is, and maybe this is the beginning if a new normal, and it's still safer than Pittsburgh and most other cities...
Of the violent crime categories the only one Charlotte didn't submit was rape...
In 2018 Charlotte had way more aggravated assaults per capita than Pittsburgh, 4735 to 289. But Pittsburgh had a significantly higher murder rate (18.81 to 6.34), as well as the higher robbery rate (230 to 189). So by this measure, Charlotte's overall violent crime rate in these three categories is over 9 times higher than Pgh, per 100k (4930.34 to 537.81)...
This is why its beneficial to look at these things over a period of time, instead of one year. Pgh's reported agg. assaults were abnormally low in '18 compared to any prior year, I mean like 5-6 times lower than normal. Meanwhile, Clt's agg assault rate was about twice as high as normal in '17 and '18...
I can tell you for sure, Charlotte's homicide rate is nowhere close to Pgh's on an annual basis. The others I'd have to do a deeper dive, but it's kinda hard to look at one year ('18) and conclude that Clt is 9x more dangerous than Pgh without mentioning Pgh's unusually low assaults that year, as well as the fact Pgh has more robberies and is way more murderous...
My rule on crime analysis is you can never really tell anything with one year. Any year. One year can't tell you **** other than how that single year looks compared to other single years. Two years could establish a pattern, but you cant use two years as your strict measurement because you can have one abnormally low year followed immediately by one abnormally high year, happens more often than you may think...
Three years to me is the general minimum with which a trend can be seen, more often than not, so if you're gonna compare places, comparing the most recent 3-years of data gives the strongest perspective of what's going on recently. For me though, and this is just a "me" thing, it takes 4-5 years to be able to see consistency in crime trends that balance out unusual fluctuations. But 3 years is the absolute minimum with which you can tell anything of note...
This gives me a new quarantine project, I'll probably spend part of the next week analyzing the last 3-5 years of violent crime data for mid and large sized cities...
One more "me" thing. Property crime certainly isn't a victimless crime but neither is cybercrime, yet cyber/white collar crime isn't usually thought of when you consider how dangerous a particular place is. I view property crime similarly. It happens much more often than violent crime and more people are involved in it, but it has no real impact on whether I think a place is dangerous or not. So I only analyze violent crime, I leave property crime and cyber crime to others who care more about it...
Crime in Albuquerque has thankfully been trending downward in most categories in the last two years or so. I think it will drop in the rankings when the 2019 numbers come out. However, there was also a scandal here recently when it was revealed that the crime numbers the mayor had been releasing quarterly were botched and didn't actually include all incidents of crime because there wasn't enough time to compile them into the reports. This led people to believe that the incidents of crime had been dropping more than they actually were. The mayor has now stopped producing the quarterly reports but insists the true numbers are known and will be accurately reported each year to the FBI. The mayor also said that crime is going down even with the extra incidents added.
1 Memphis, TN
2 Detroit, MI
3 Baltimore, MD
4 Kansas City, MO
5 Albuquerque, NM
6 Oakland, CA
7 Wichita, KS
8 Milwaukee, WI
9 Indianapolis, IN
10 New Orleans, LA
11 Tulsa, OK
12 Nashville, TN
13 Houston, TX
14 Washington DC
15 Chicago, IL
16 Oklahoma City, OK
17 San Francisco, CA
18 Atlanta, GA
19 Tucson, AZ
20 Philadelphia, PA
21 Seattle, WA
22 Minneapolis, MN
23 Denver, CO
24 Dallas, TX
25 Phoenix, AZ
26 Portland, OR
27 San Antonio, TX
28 Los Angeles, CA
29 Miami, FL
30 Sacramento, CA
31 Long Beach, CA
32 Jacksonville, FL
33 Bakersfield, CA
34 Omaha, NE
35 Colorado Springs, CO
36 Fresno, CA
37 Las Vegas, NV
38 Columbus, OH
39 Boston, MA
40 Fort Worth, TX
41 Arlington, TX
42 Austin, TX
43 New York, NY
44 San Jose, CA
45 Tampa, FL
46 San Diego, CA
47 Mesa, AZ
48 Honolulu, HI
49 El Paso, TX
50 Virginia Beach, VA
I'm a bit surprised to see San Francisco this high. Despite the homeless population, aside from a select few neighborhoods like Tenderloin/south of market, I never really felt unsafe in the city.
When you combine SF and Oakland, you're talking about a substantial area of high crime.
I'm a bit surprised to see San Francisco this high. Despite the homeless population, aside from a select few neighborhoods like Tenderloin/south of market, I never really felt unsafe in the city.
When you combine SF and Oakland, you're talking about a substantial area of high crime.
Here's the MSA list. Ranking of most dangerous big Metropolitan Statistical Areas by crime rate.
These are the 50 largest MSA's from the FBI UCR with complete crime data. Some notable MSA's are missing such as New York, Chicago, Houston, Detroit, St. Louis and a few others due to missing or incomplete MSA crime data.
1 Memphis, TN-MS-AR M.S.A.
2 Albuquerque, NM M.S.A.
3 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD M.S.A.
4 Bakersfield, CA M.S.A.
5 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN M.S.A.
6 Tulsa, OK M.S.A.
7 Baton Rouge, LA M.S.A.
8 Fresno, CA M.S.A.
9 Oklahoma City, OK M.S.A.
10 Tucson, AZ M.S.A.
11 Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI M.S.A.
12 San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA M.S.A.
13 Salt Lake City, UT M.S.A.
14 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA M.S.A.
15 Jacksonville, FL M.S.A.
16 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ M.S.A.
17 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL M.S.A.
18 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC M.S.A.
19 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA M.S.A.
20 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL M.S.A.
21 Knoxville, TN M.S.A.
22 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA M.S.A.
23 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD M.S.A.
24 Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA M.S.A.
25 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA M.S.A.
26 Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY M.S.A.
27 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA M.S.A.
28 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX M.S.A.
29 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC M.S.A.
30 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA M.S.A.
31 Urban Honolulu, HI M.S.A.
32 Columbus, OH M.S.A.
33 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX M.S.A.
34 San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA M.S.A.
35 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX M.S.A.
36 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL M.S.A.
37 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY M.S.A.
38 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI M.S.A.
39 Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI M.S.A.
40 Richmond, VA M.S.A.
41 Worcester, MA-CT M.S.A.
42 Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT M.S.A.
43 Providence-Warwick, RI-MA M.S.A.
44 Rochester, NY M.S.A
45 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN M.S.A.
46 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV M.S.A.
47 Pittsburgh, PA M.S.A.
48 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA M.S.A.
49 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH M.S.A.
50 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT M.S.A.
I'm a bit surprised to see San Francisco this high. Despite the homeless population, aside from a select few neighborhoods like Tenderloin/south of market, I never really felt unsafe in the city.
When you combine SF and Oakland, you're talking about a substantial area of high crime.
In all fairness, to support the veracity of this list, do the top 3 ever really change (other than their order)?
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