Brighter future: DFW vs. Greater Toronto Area (places, bigger, taxes)
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OP is asking about brighter future, not population growth.
GTA's affordability crisis and lack of other options for people to escape to means that the area will be full of super commuters, people living in substandard housing, increasing inequality, etc. It might grow but it won't be pretty for a huge chunk of the population.
Canada needs to either figure out a way to disperse economic opportunity throughout the country or find a way to fix the housing crisis.
GTA does have an issue with affordability, but it should be noted that among Canadian CMA's, Toronto is about a third of the way down the list when it came to percentage population growth between the last two censuses.
It's not enough to be a corporate center, DFW needs a top tier research university to rival the coastal elite universities. If UT Austin were in Dallas it would be a major boost.
I'm of the belief that one or more of the local universities in the DFW area will rise in stature organically and become more competitive from an academic standpoint as the region's population approaches megacity status. But even if they don't, DFW may not need that.
Austin's problem is that it's running out of room to grow from an infrastructure standpoint (not to say it won't grow, but it will be at a slower rate), so whatever return it gets from having UT Austin in its backyard will be steadily diminishing with time, especially with a truly major metro just a few hours to the north on the interstate.
GTA has a brighter future as while Dallas seems to be economically ahead, and Toronto is ahead population wise. Hamilton is soon going to be incorporated in the GTA (I give it a decade or two), and with Canada's population policies that is trying to increase the population of the country rapidly, Toronto is likely going to have a large enough size gap to eat up the current 150 billion dollar difference in economy. I know Dallas will be in the contest for a while but since America is very likely never gonna see direct increases in immigration anywhere near the level of Canada unless the birth rates gets really dire, Toronto will see it's greater population likely swell to 10,000,000 people in the next few decades. Through adding millions to Hamilton, Guelph, Milton, Grimsby, Halton Hills, Caledon, King, Whitchurch-Stouffville, Uxbridge and Clarington which has major empty areas and currently aren't associated with core Toronto much. I know their is an urban boundary but as the city get's bigger I'm assuming many of these towns will be seeing major development, especially with the current affordability crisis.
Dallas has one of the brightest futures in America city-wise. It's impressive all around but it's limited by being in America, and America having such a large geopolitical advantage that unlike Canada their is no governmental pressure to rapidly increase the population. As Canada swells in size population wise, Toronto will not only grow in size population wise but will also grow from a geopolitical standpoint, fueled by the growth across the entire country.
GTA has a brighter future as while Dallas seems to be economically ahead, and Toronto is ahead population wise. Hamilton is soon going to be incorporated in the GTA (I give it a decade or two), and with Canada's population policies that is trying to increase the population of the country rapidly, Toronto is likely going to have a large enough size gap to eat up the current 150 billion dollar difference in economy. I know Dallas will be in the contest for a while but since America is very likely never gonna see direct increases in immigration anywhere near the level of Canada unless the birth rates gets really dire, Toronto will see it's greater population likely swell to 10,000,000 people in the next few decades. Through adding millions to Hamilton, Guelph, Milton, Grimsby, Halton Hills, Caledon, King, Whitchurch-Stouffville, Uxbridge and Clarington which has major empty areas and currently aren't associated with core Toronto much. I know their is an urban boundary but as the city get's bigger I'm assuming many of these towns will be seeing major development, especially with the current affordability crisis.
Dallas has one of the brightest futures in America city-wise. It's impressive all around but it's limited by being in America, and America having such a large geopolitical advantage that unlike Canada their is no governmental pressure to rapidly increase the population. As Canada swells in size population wise, Toronto will not only grow in size population wise but will also grow from a geopolitical standpoint, fueled by the growth across the entire country.
Correct.
And the highlighted is also an answer to some of the points that are critical or skeptical of Toronto's future on here. Toronto is just too important relatively speaking to both Ontario and Canada for those higher-level governments to let it fail.
This is different from the situation in the U.S., at least at the federal level (and even in some states, TBQH) where higher levels of government have been way more hands off when it comes to the fate of even large cities.
In the U.S. there are so many large metros that there is more wiggle room (so to speak) for some to fail because there are always some that will soar and take their place.
I'm of the belief that one or more of the local universities in the DFW area will rise in stature organically and become more competitive from an academic standpoint as the region's population approaches megacity status. But even if they don't, DFW may not need that.
Austin's problem is that it's running out of room to grow from an infrastructure standpoint (not to say it won't grow, but it will be at a slower rate), so whatever return it gets from having UT Austin in its backyard will be steadily diminishing with time, especially with a truly major metro just a few hours to the north on the interstate.
To be fair, any metro area with a 29 percent growth rate from 2010 to 2019 like Austin is just not going to be able to build enough freeways and roads, let alone light rail, to keep pace with the massive increase in people. Especially when there's lots of hills and bodies of water on the west half of the city, which serve as geographical barriers for building freeways and roads and light rail.
DFW and Phoenix, by comparison, only grew 18 percent over the same period compared to Austin's 29 percent. And they are both much flatter (Phoenix has mountains but the vast bulk of people live in the lowlands).
GTA does have an issue with affordability, but it should be noted that among Canadian CMA's, Toronto is about a third of the way down the list when it came to percentage population growth between the last two censuses.
Yes, Calgary, for instance, is growing significantly faster than either Toronto or DFW. But...so is Austin. Percentage wise, of course.
OP is asking about brighter future, not population growth.
GTA's affordability crisis and lack of other options for people to escape to means that the area will be full of super commuters, people living in substandard housing, increasing inequality, etc. It might grow but it won't be pretty for a huge chunk of the population.
Canada needs to either figure out a way to disperse economic opportunity throughout the country or find a way to fix the housing crisis.
Toronto has a huge greenbelt around it that the province can open to development if affordability ever become a significant enough issue. Currently their is no public support, besides developer, for the greenbelt to be opened up.
Lets not forget that creation of the greenbelt in 2004 is what created the GTA affordability issue and highrise boom since it basically stopped Toronto urban sprawl
Last edited by Trojan1982; 11-06-2020 at 07:47 AM..
OP is asking about brighter future, not population growth.
GTA's affordability crisis and lack of other options for people to escape to means that the area will be full of super commuters, people living in substandard housing, increasing inequality, etc. It might grow but it won't be pretty for a huge chunk of the population.
Canada needs to either figure out a way to disperse economic opportunity throughout the country or find a way to fix the housing crisis.
Toronto and Vancouver are the only places in Canada that have a housing affordability challenge, but they're far from the only places that are economically dynamic.
Lots of places in Canada are both reasonably affordable and economically well-off.
Many are doing better economically than Toronto, in fact.
Toronto and Vancouver are the only places in Canada that have a housing affordability challenge, but they're far from the only places that are economically dynamic.
Lots of places in Canada are both reasonably affordable and economically well-off.
Many are doing better economically than Toronto, in fact.
Interesting. I keep hearing how Canada has a higher cost of living and higher taxes than the US on average (of course there are US outliers like San Francisco that buck the trend, but in general), while gross salaries are lower than the US for the same kind of job.
How true is this? Is a junior software developer in Toronto making less money (gross salary) than a junior software developer in Dallas?
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