City Data Holiday 2020: BEA 2019 GDP Release... (state, places, Atlanta, Los Angeles)

[murksiderock]

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-cou...nd-other-areas

Dropping tomorrow morning, annual hallowed day for us on here...

What are you guys expecting in regards to big movers or declines from 2019? Leave your predictions here, figures will be posted as available tomorrow, and I'm about to look over some stuff before leaving my own expectations below!

[TheseGoTo11]

Looking at changes in metro wages from the BLS, SF, Seattle, Austin, Boston, usual tech suspects all outperformed national growth due to above average wage growth. DFW outperformed due to job growth.

Wages tend to correlate with GDP, although places like Austin that have a disproportionate number of companies HQ'd elsewhere tend to be wage heavy/capital light.

[TheseGoTo11]

2018 Aggregate Wages

MSAs unless noted

NY $731.8B
LA $390.2B ($476.3B CSA)
CHI $285.6B
DC. $242.4B
SF $232.6B ($381.3B CSA)
DFW $219.3B
BOS $211.6B

2018 GDP
NY $1.78T
LA $1.05T
CHI $ 689.5B
SF $548.6B
DC $540.7B
DFW $512.5B
HOU $478.8B
BOS $463.6B

2018 Wages/GDP are within a 40-45% band for most metros.

2019 Wages:
NY 766.5B
LA 409.7B
CHI 294.1B
DC 251.3B
SF 250.7B
DFW 232.5B
BOS 223.5B

[18Montclair]

Not many changes...next year's release is going to be brutal.

MSA


CSA


source: bea.gov

[the resident09]

Seattle cracking top 10 by MSA, is that new news? Or was that the case last year?

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by the resident09

Seattle cracking top 10 by MSA, is that new news? Or was that the case last year?

Yup, it appears that in both MSA and CSA, Seattle surpassed Atlanta in 2019.

[As Above So Below...]

How much did the top MSA/CSAs improve (or decline) YOY?

[Heel82]

Both of NC’s top counties, Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) grew much slower relative to past years. Particularly Mecklenburg was hard hit, as it grew less even relative to the rest of the state (0.8% yoy, 82nd out of 100 counties). Next year will be brutal across the board, but I wonder if the high fliers get hit harder than average again.

[18Montclair]

Anyone have an idea of what's going on in Texas? I thought DFW would put up much more robust numbers?

And huge props to Seattle! And look at Boston and Philly acting like theyre in the sunbelt lol looking good.

I only did the CSAs with 400B+ GDPs

2018-2019 CSA GDP Growth
+$71.792 Billion New York-Newark(+3.53%)
+$63.162 Billion Los Angeles-Long Beach(+4.93%)
+$59.594 Billion San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland(+5.79%)
+$30.267 Billion Seattle-Tacoma(+6.87%)
+$29.692 Billion Washington-Baltimore-Arlington(+3.80%)
+$28.479 Billion Boston-Worcester-Providence(+4.33%)
+$20.568 Billion Philadelphia-Reading-Camden(+4.18%)
+$18.883 Billion Dallas-Fort Worth(+3.61%)
+$18.359 Billion Chicago-Naperville(+2.58%)
+$17.667 Billion Miami-Port St Lucie-Fort Lauderdale(+5.43%)
+$16.789 Billion Atlanta-Athens-Clarke County-Sandy Springs(+3.77%)
+$14.770 Billion Houston-The Woodlands(+2.91%)

[the resident09]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Yup, it appears that in both MSA and CSA, Seattle surpassed Atlanta in 2019.

SEA, and Bay Area equally impressive.

Boston/Philly impressive.

DC-Balt CSA surpasses $800 billion mark.

Will be very interesting to see how big a hit we all took for 2020, and how long it will take these places to get back to these numbers.