Which city will recover from from decline first: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago (largest, compared)
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LA has year round great weather, is arguably the most popular, and is the arbiter of world wide culture trends. Itll be fine.
Chicago is tough to place. It is an amazing city (Id rather live there than NYC or LA), but its global status isnt near the other two. It is cheaper by a long shot, buts its also very cold and has a very bi-polar reputation. NYC, LA, and Chicago are all experiencing American born population declines, but LA and NYC have large numbers of international immigrants to fill the void. Chicago really doesnt given its size. Its not going to become Detroit or anything but I think its more vulnerable than the other two.
Actually, the weather this year and last year has been much better than NYC's. There are alot of signs that the pandemic did not hit Chicago as hard as NYC or LA; real estate inventory at almost an all time low, rent reductions far less than NY or LA; unemployment rate lower than LA or NYC. Needless to say though that the pandemic has hit all cities; my bet is on Chicago based on COL and less harm during the pandemic, as well as an increased global outlook based on a widely acknowledged tech/academic partnership for growth. Time will tell, I hope that they all recover for the country's sake.
Ultimately, NYC is the most influential city in this country and perhaps in the world as well.
If NYC can’t recover, then we will be in big trouble.
All three cities will eventually recover. It will probably be easier for NYC and LA to recover since they are more global than Chicago. But Chicago is no slouch either.
Last edited by SnobbishDude; 02-01-2021 at 04:38 PM..
These three places are all experiencing population flight, blight, and quality of life decline. Which of these three places is most likely to recover from its nose dive?
I think there is a terrible outlook for all three, but NYC will likely turn the curve much faster than the others. The outlook is by far much worse in LA than the other two.
NYC is the epi-center of hyperfinancialized economy that just gets bigger and bigger. NYC might have deficits, but it is more a spending issue because there is still tremendous amounts of revenue into NYC.
Tourism will likely to back quickly to NYC there are many who are yearning for that urban experience that NYC provides especially after many have spent so much time at home the last year.
COVID is the least of Los Angeles tourism issues, when street after street is lined with tents, poop, urine, vomit.
NYC also seems to be doing a much better job when it comes to keeping crime to a moderate level compared to Chicago and Los Angeles during the pandemic.
Chicago seems to have had less issues economically during COVID-19 than the other two. But the long-term outlook seems to terrible for Chicago with the pension liabilities, parts of the city emptying out, all-time record highs on certain crimes in Cook County last year also.
Los Angeles just isn't much of a city for it's size. The economy doesn't add up at all. Well over 10 million people in that county with only about 3.5 million private-sector jobs.
If one look at Los Angles now compred to 1990. It's economically fizzeled like no where else in America in the last generation.
Los Angeles homeless issue is going to get far, far, far worse. There is nothing they can do about it now, the cat was let of that bag many years.
Los Angeles because of regulations and too much open space also has far higher single-family home costs than Chicago and NYC, which is interesting because NYC has the epicenter of the ultra-financialized country, Chicago has lots of legacy companies and Los Angles economically is very, very weak in comparison.
Reading this thread just confirmed for me that this forum is one big NYC circle jerk...
Hey Gary, seriously do you think Chicago will recover first? I get it, I mean it is 1/3 the size of NYC so possibly it could because of that, I wouldn’t bet against it. But, there’s a reason NYC gets “praise” here. I lived in Chicago years ago for a short time and it was a great experience but I never thought of comparing the two cities they are too different and not close to the same size.
NYC will never truly decline on the scale that the other two potentially could. Let's face it....NY is the ultimate megacity. The other two cities, while established world cities, are not on the same level as NY in so many areas. In a lot of ways Chicago and LA are still reinventing themselves. That hasn't been the case for NYC since the early Giuliani years and Disney invading Times Square over 25 years ago.
And this is in no way knocking either Chicago or LA. NYC is dead right now. You can go anywhere you want in half the time. Foot traffic and transit traffic is way down. All that said, once the vaccines start getting injected on a much larger basis, NYC will reinvigorate itself quicker than anywhere else. That's just the nature of the dynamism that is only NY. It's the epicenter of too many industries, too many power brokers, too much energy and too much MONEY.
Also if you can afford to stay around here, the COL has actually gotten better since the pandemic so that's another plus in the short-term. Obviously that will be short lived once things open up again and demand resurfaces.
NY is the ultimate magnet. No matter how many droves of people leave (whether it's due to 9/11 or a pandemic) the city just continually attracts the best and brightest.
Totally agree here.
Folks always knock NYC and say "it's finally over" and "it'll never be back."
NYC will be back stronger than ever before by the time the vaccines are all taking effect over most of the population, and people and companies start moving back.
I think a creative powerhouse will be in starting again in NYC, due to the pent up and closed off situations the pandemic caused.
LA and Chicago will recover too, absolutely. But the "come back" won't be as strong as NYC's.
Folks always knock NYC and say "it's finally over" and "it'll never be back."
NYC will be back stronger than ever before by the time the vaccines are all taking effect over most of the population, and people and companies start moving back.
I think a creative powerhouse will be in starting again in NYC, due to the pent up and closed off situations the pandemic caused.
LA and Chicago will recover too, absolutely. But the "come back" won't be as strong as NYC's.
Again, nobody says that. Quantity wise they fell the most. Quantity wise they will rise up faster than other cities. Its double the size of the 2nd largest US city, so it will rise faster statistically. But again, every city is experiencing this, its just NYC has roughly 8 million people, so numerically they probably will. He had a valid point.
NYC is also built pre-car like Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, etc.. that type of urbanity is in demand and highly deisrable.
Last edited by masssachoicetts; 02-01-2021 at 06:23 PM..
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