Which city will recover from from decline first: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago (rates, crime rate)
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not sure if you are trying to equate Northridge ($35B damage) or Rodney King ($1B) with 9-11 ($3.3 Trillion and national implications) are you?...I’d put all those LA specific events closer to/ on par with Sandy ($20B)—not 9-11. Trying to find out the economic impact from the ‘08 crisis to NYC alone—will edit if I find the # (and I lived in CA, too, during those crises—could even add the OC bankruptcy in 1994 but are not getting anywhere near 9-11 levels and impact).
I don’t mean to downplay those LA events nor the recovery afterwards other than to state the obvious—9-11 was an entirely different level altogether.
Not equating them but 9/11 and the Northridge quake had about equal direct damage to NY and LA, respectively. The $3.3 trillion you quote included a lot of externalities like the cost of the wars in Afganistan ($1.7 trillion), supporting the airlines, etc.
NYC isnt even dead now at the worst parts of the pandemic. It did have a weak summer/fall and the vibrancy wasn't all that there. But at its worst it still was more vibrant than most US Cities. I think some people just watch FOX news too much who highlighted that issue.
I was in NYC two weeks ago and it looked buzzing to me. The typical areas were vibrant. I mean in one way, NYC did recover.
There are some neighborhoods that are eerily quiet, as compared to pre-pandemic--mostly in the city.
I live in Brooklyn and my area is bustling mostly normal, like 2019 levels. But you take the F into the city and normal bustling hotspots before COVID are now super quiet. Pockets of areas are doing well, but other areas have been beat up badly.
In many neighborhoods, there are boarded up stores, quiet retail, minimal foot traffic, and restaurants and bars closed up by 930-10pm. The subway closing by 1am. It's really tough to see. People are tired of it.
But NYC is strong, resilient and a powerhouse. It will come back stronger than ever.
^^^Now *THIS* is an example of true needless boosting.
Its not hard to prove, at all lol.. if you wish to have a private discussion on what is/isn't boosting go to the inbox so mods don't have to clean up pages more.
^^^Now *THIS* is an example of true needless boosting.
(BTW, needless boosting = trying hard to prove something)
I do think LA in particular has a big COL issue. Seattle, DC and Boston do have higher wages and lower COL than NYC and Los Angeles. In LA’s case it’s a pretty wide gap.
That’s one of the reasons their domestic outmigration is much higher than somewhat comparable places. Not just Sunbelt boomtowns.
I do think LA in particular has a big COL issue...
True, so does NYC.
But the question being asked is, post-COVID, which city between the 2 (and Chicago) will bounce back first. The high COL isn't going to be (and never was) a deal breaker for folks who are legitimately attracted to these cities and will contribute to their recovery.
Hey Gary, seriously do you think Chicago will recover first? I get it, I mean it is 1/3 the size of NYC so possibly it could because of that, I wouldn’t bet against it. But, there’s a reason NYC gets “praise” here. I lived in Chicago years ago for a short time and it was a great experience but I never thought of comparing the two cities they are too different and not close to the same size.
Do I think it will recover before NY? Yes. The simple reason being that NYC has unequivocally been the single city most adversely impacted by the pandemic.
The implicit assumption among many posters here seems to be that, because COVID hit NY disproportionately hard, it should also be the quickest city to rebound. That doesn't really follow. If recovery is defined by metrics such as job growth/GDP/tourism etc., then certainly NY has a bigger gap to fill in order to return to pre-pandemic levels, than either of the other two cities.
Since we like numbers in this forum, here are some stats on MSA unemployment:
Chicago had an unemployment rate of 7.0% as of Nov 2020, whereas New York had a rate of 9.5%.
Unemployment in Chicago MSA peaked at 15.6% (+11.5% YoY), compared to 17.0% in NY MSA (+13.5% YoY).
The longer the pandemic continues, the more job losses become permanent - and NY has clearly suffered more than other cities in that respect. I obviously don't agree with anyone who says the city is never going to recover, but I'm also seeing a lot of nebulous claims in this thread from people who don't seem to have the data to back it up.
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