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These three places are all experiencing population flight, blight, and quality of life decline. Which of these three places is most likely to recover from its nose dive?
NYC will never truly decline on the scale that the other two potentially could. Let's face it....NY is the ultimate megacity. The other two cities, while established world cities, are not on the same level as NY in so many areas. In a lot of ways Chicago and LA are still reinventing themselves. That hasn't been the case for NYC since the early Giuliani years and Disney invading Times Square over 25 years ago.
And this is in no way knocking either Chicago or LA. NYC is dead right now. You can go anywhere you want in half the time. Foot traffic and transit traffic is way down. All that said, once the vaccines start getting injected on a much larger basis, NYC will reinvigorate itself quicker than anywhere else. That's just the nature of the dynamism that is only NY. It's the epicenter of too many industries, too many power brokers, too much energy and too much MONEY.
Also if you can afford to stay around here, the COL has actually gotten better since the pandemic so that's another plus in the short-term. Obviously that will be short lived once things open up again and demand resurfaces.
NY is the ultimate magnet. No matter how many droves of people leave (whether it's due to 9/11 or a pandemic) the city just continually attracts the best and brightest.
Has Chicago experienced this? Chicago seems no different now than before the pandemic, and is relatively stable, but the population decline (not because of Covid) isn't a good thing in the long run.
The dramatics toward New York are just that...The city may take more time to recover, but it will...The moment Broadway reopens, workers come back to the office, tourism picks up, etc. New York get back on track.
I don't know too much about what's going on in LA, but California in general seems to be the least stable in general, I would say SF more than LA though.
NYC will never truly decline on the scale that the other two potentially could. Let's face it....NY is the ultimate megacity. The other two cities, while established world cities, are not on the same level as NY in so many areas. In a lot of ways Chicago and LA are still reinventing themselves. That hasn't been the case for NYC since the early Giuliani years and Disney invading Times Square over 25 years ago.
And this is in no way knocking either Chicago or LA. NYC is dead right now. You can go anywhere you want in half the time. Foot traffic and transit traffic is way down. All that said, once the vaccines start getting injected on a much larger basis, NYC will reinvigorate itself quicker than anywhere else. That's just the nature of the dynamism that is only NY. It's the epicenter of too many industries, too many power brokers, too much energy and too much MONEY.
Also if you can afford to stay around here, the COL has actually gotten better since the pandemic so that's another plus in the short-term. Obviously that will be short lived once things open up again and demand resurfaces.
NY is the ultimate magnet. No matter how many droves of people leave (whether it's due to 9/11 or a pandemic) the city just continually attracts the best and brightest.
LA has year round great weather, is arguably the most popular, and is the arbiter of world wide culture trends. Itll be fine.
Chicago is tough to place. It is an amazing city (Id rather live there than NYC or LA), but its global status isnt near the other two. It is cheaper by a long shot, buts its also very cold and has a very bi-polar reputation. NYC, LA, and Chicago are all experiencing American born population declines, but LA and NYC have large numbers of international immigrants to fill the void. Chicago really doesnt given its size. Its not going to become Detroit or anything but I think its more vulnerable than the other two.
The obvious answer would be New York, but what hurts the city is its astronomical cost of living. I’m not as optimistic about the city’s short term outlook as some others might be.
Los Angeles and Chicago have deeper issues that predate the pandemic, so ultimately they remain close 2nd and 3rds respectively.
Definitely New York.
New York is a dominant global city on all fronts. It will bounce back for sure.
Chicago's decline has not really been immensely impacted by COVID. Chicago has been in a precarious situation for years, as it relates to population loss. Although the downtown core of Chicago has been doing quite well for years, and it undoubtedly took a hit (like all major cities) due to the pandemic. But Chicago's situation is not a whole lot different pre/post pandemic. It has decent infrastructure to bounce back, although addressing needs of the working-class populations will be necessary for a fully thriving city. The city has been dealing with this issue for several years. With that, the violence issues in those communities, further exacerbate the cities problems. Chicago has suffered by continuing to become a polarized city of haves and have-nots. This will be further exacerbated with post-pandemic effects.
Interesting that in the usual city data stampede to crown NYC, no one took into to account that Los Angeles has a pretty big advantage in its ability to conduct business and commerce outdoors, which could figure into a faster recovery. The OP did not mention covid though, that seems to be an assumption in the replies.
If we're just talking about decline in general, keep in mind that Los Angeles has never lost population in a census, while both NYC and Chicago have hemorrhaged population in the past to the tune of hundreds of thousands of city residents.
So I'm not sure how we can characterize a city that's never lost population that is getting ready to host its third Olympic Games as a "decline" city.
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