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Old 03-18-2021, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
10,071 posts, read 14,449,392 times
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Overall, the top 10 on this list has little surprises, other than seeing St Louis at #2.

I thought it was turning the corner somewhat on crime, but it looks to be slipping back into being one of the most dangerous cities in the country after all.

What's pleasantly surprising is how extremely low both New York City and San Francisco are.

COVID-19 has caused an uptick in homelessness in both cities, but murders look to be not as spiked as critics thought, thankfully.
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:45 PM
 
Location: East Coast
1,013 posts, read 913,118 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STLgasm View Post
A variety of factors contribute to STL's relatively high homicide rate:

1) Relatively compact city limits - only 61 sq. miles, which is 100% urbanized. The small physical area contains some extremely violent neighborhoods, which skew the numbers for the entire city. What the numbers don't account for is crime distribution. Yeah, there are a few seriously dreadful zip codes in the city that really tick up the city average, but most of the city is not much different from any other major city.

2) State of Missouri is a gun-loving state, making it very easy for criminals to access firearms. The city has long been at odds with the rural-dominated legislature to enact its own "home rule" gun control laws, but to no avail. The state of Missouri is HORRIBLE when it comes to urban policy, and not just when it comes to gun control.

3) Shifting demographics - the disparities between the haves and have nots in the City of St. Louis has been widening, which mirrors trends happening older cities across the country. This makes distressed neighborhoods even more distressed by increasing the concentration poverty and crime. Those dynamics make certain neighborhoods powder kegs of desperation, addiction and violence.

4) Inefficient resources - the City of St. Louis had 857,000 people in its tiny 61 sq. miles in 1950, and today the same area contains a little more than 300,000. That depopulation has adversely impacted the city's tax base, so police response, infrastructure and social programs suffer as a result.

Even though the numbers are awful and there's no excuse for this kind of violence in a civilized society, it's important to note that the City of St. Louis is NOT some wasteland of violence, and it has a lot of very stable, vibrant and sought after neighborhoods. There is a lot of good happening in the city, and efforts are always being made to curb violence and reform policing and criminal justice. But as long as our deep blue city is trapped in the backwards, increasingly red state, I think it will always punch under its weight when it comes to realizing its true potential.

My brother left STL...but if you outlaw guns in the state you do realize criminals and ne’er do wells will still easily get them and use them and law abiding people wouldn’t be able to protect themselves.

And...what gun control measures do you think would be appropriate?

Last edited by Koji7; 03-18-2021 at 03:47 PM.. Reason: Added a question
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Flyover part of Virginia
4,218 posts, read 2,459,291 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STLgasm View Post
A variety of factors contribute to STL's relatively high homicide rate:

1) Relatively compact city limits - only 61 sq. miles, which is 100% urbanized. The small physical area contains some extremely violent neighborhoods, which skew the numbers for the entire city. What the numbers don't account for is crime distribution. Yeah, there are a few seriously dreadful zip codes in the city that really tick up the city average, but most of the city is not much different from any other major city.

2) State of Missouri is a gun-loving state, making it very easy for criminals to access firearms. The city has long been at odds with the rural-dominated legislature to enact its own "home rule" gun control laws, but to no avail. The state of Missouri is HORRIBLE when it comes to urban policy, and not just when it comes to gun control.

3) Shifting demographics - the disparities between the haves and have nots in the City of St. Louis has been widening, which mirrors trends happening older cities across the country. This makes distressed neighborhoods even more distressed by increasing the concentration poverty and crime. Those dynamics make certain neighborhoods powder kegs of desperation, addiction and violence.

4) Inefficient resources - the City of St. Louis had 857,000 people in its tiny 61 sq. miles in 1950, and today the same area contains a little more than 300,000. That depopulation has adversely impacted the city's tax base, so police response, infrastructure and social programs suffer as a result.

Even though the numbers are awful and there's no excuse for this kind of violence in a civilized society, it's important to note that the City of St. Louis is NOT some wasteland of violence, and it has a lot of very stable, vibrant and sought after neighborhoods. There is a lot of good happening in the city, and efforts are always being made to curb violence and reform policing and criminal justice. But as long as our deep blue city is trapped in the backwards, increasingly red state, I think it will always punch under its weight when it comes to realizing its true potential.
Lol, like clockwork. You do realize that there are many other cities in the US with "compact city limits" that have a fraction of the homicides per capita that St Louis has, right? Pittsburgh, Boston, DC, San Fransisco, Miami, and Manhattan all anchor large metros in the millions, and all have smaller land area than STL, but none have anything close to STL's homicide rate. So that tired old excuse for STL's ridiculous homicide rate holds little water.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc View Post
St Louis is in bad shape--very surprising it's so high on the list.

Population is falling and folks are moving out, and this could be one of the driving factors.

I have a past colleague who moved to a "nicer neighborhood" in St Louis with her husband 2 years ago. They bought because it was so incredible of a bargain for a nice townhouse, but she said they hear "gun shots all the time" at night, and pretend they are fireworks. Yikes.

She said they will be moving after a few years in the city.
St Louis is really becoming almost unlivably violent.

Last edited by Taggerung; 03-18-2021 at 04:27 PM..
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:21 PM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
3,416 posts, read 2,459,101 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyExpert View Post
Surprised at high San Bernadino was. I know it's not a prosperous city but I never knew it had a crime/murder problem.
I’m not.

We have a cabin in the mountains above it, and there’s some rough areas. I go to the Costco and Home Depot there (beautiful business park / commercial center, btw) but if you venture off too far it gets seedy quick. I will say it’s nothing like the bad areas back East though? There are nice neighborhoods at the base of the mountains and near CSUSB. North of the 210 is where you want to be.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:37 PM
 
Location: Flyover part of Virginia
4,218 posts, read 2,459,291 times
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The city on the list I'm most familiar with is Norfolk VA, followed by KCMO. Norfolk has somewhat of a reputation for crime, but I never perceived it as being all that bad. The homicide rate usually comes in around 13-16, so this jump to 20/per 100k is a noticeable increase. I think the homicide numbers will keep increasing, as I'm hearing about more shootings on the news so far this year in Norfolk than what is usual for the city.

KCMO has very bad 'inner city' crime. I'm not sure how it compares to STL, but I'd wager that STL is probably significantly worse.
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Old 03-18-2021, 06:03 PM
 
1,207 posts, read 1,282,966 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koji7 View Post
My brother left STL...but if you outlaw guns in the state you do realize criminals and ne’er do wells will still easily get them and use them and law abiding people wouldn’t be able to protect themselves.

And...what gun control measures do you think would be appropriate?
Missouri should go back to what they had before. Guns were still very obtainable, the process just took slightly longer. Since they made gun laws more lax, gang related violence and suicides have increased, especially suicides among white men.

Guns don't need to be outlawed but their nature requires that they be managed carefully.
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Old 03-18-2021, 06:08 PM
 
1,160 posts, read 1,658,894 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
Lol, like clockwork. You do realize that there are many other cities in the US with "compact city limits" that have a fraction of the homicides per capita that St Louis has, right? Pittsburgh, Boston, DC, San Fransisco, Miami, and Manhattan all anchor large metros in the millions, and all have smaller land area than STL, but none have anything close to STL's homicide rate. So that tired old excuse for STL's ridiculous homicide rate holds little water.



St Louis is really becoming almost unlivably violent.
First of all, calm down champ. The other cities you mention have very different demographics and not nearly the same poverty rate that STL has. Also, you seem to ignore the other factors I pointed out. Yeah, if MO had stricter gun laws the criminals would still get their hands on guns, blah blah blah, but they sure as hell wouldn’t be nearly as prevalent. And my question to you is this- if you seem to think all the “excuses” for violence in St. Louis are BS, what do you think is the reason for our relatively high homicide rate? Please chime in with something meaningful.
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Old 03-18-2021, 08:12 PM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
809 posts, read 470,029 times
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What's going on with Indianapolis?
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Old 03-18-2021, 08:21 PM
 
Location: Flyover part of Virginia
4,218 posts, read 2,459,291 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STLgasm View Post
First of all, calm down champ. The other cities you mention have very different demographics and not nearly the same poverty rate that STL has. Also, you seem to ignore the other factors I pointed out. Yeah, if MO had stricter gun laws the criminals would still get their hands on guns, blah blah blah, but they sure as hell wouldn’t be nearly as prevalent. And my question to you is this- if you seem to think all the “excuses” for violence in St. Louis are BS, what do you think is the reason for our relatively high homicide rate? Please chime in with something meaningful.
Large black underclass, drugs, and pervasive "ghetto" culture.

Quote:
Originally Posted by norcal2k19 View Post
What's going on with Indianapolis?
Large black underclass, drugs, and pervasive "ghetto" culture.
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Old 03-19-2021, 12:10 AM
 
Location: Southwest Suburbs
4,593 posts, read 9,199,422 times
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Small and medium-sized cities in the Midwest also experienced a sharp increase in murders and shootings.

Rockford IL recorded 36 murders (24.7) and 171 shooting victims, doubling from 2019 for both statistics. This is coming from a city that didn't record its first murder until March, a sign that it was heading towards possibly a record low in years. The majority of murders and shootings were the result of a feud between two rival gangs, said RPD. 2,053 violent crimes (, vast majority being assaults incl. 600+ shots fired) reported through November, and for a city of 145k (2019 estimate), that possibly place it with a higher violent crime rate than East St. Louis, which despite having the highest murder rate for any city it recorded less than 300 violent crimes in 2019.

Champaign was not spared, as the college town saw 10 murders (11.2) and 189 shootings (incl. shots fired/no victims), a spike from just 2 murders and 100 shootings in 2019. Hopefully this is a fluke, though looking at the data for the few years prior, assaults were consistently high.

Madison WI recorded 11 murders(4.2) and 250 shootings (incl. shots fired), from 4 murders and 144 shootings in 2019. Being both the state capital and a big college town(biggest in the Midwest), it draws in a lot of people from everywhere. However for a city of 260k, it has kept a low murder rate and even in 2020 it still tallies to being one of the lowest. Just don't let it become a trend.

Springfield MO saw at least 22 homicides (13.1), which is double of what it had in 2019. 4 of those murders was a mass shooting that involved a police officer killed. In case people are unaware, this city is one of Missouri's most violent and overall crime-infested, having a higher C-D crime index score than Kansas City and almost on par with St. Louis. That might surprise many, considering the city's racial make up. Missouri is kind of a mess, like my state.
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