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I don't have an inside track, and you know that. I've been reading about people moving this past year, though, and census numbers will be off for that reason, as well. If you think numbers are the same this year, as compared to last year, you actually know you would be wrong. It would just be wishful thinking, for some cities. Census numbers will be off....explain how they won't be, if you think differently.
I mean there will always be a lagging factor with any of these numbers. The 2021 census estimates might make for an interesting read as it tries and capture some of what the census missed. But all indications is Covid hasn’t really changed the calculus on winners/losers the last decade, just intensified it. It’s unlikely we will see anything too shocking.
Both too big/important to fail, but I think both will suffer this year more than most.
To Enean's point, this data should change rather dramatically for coastal and legacy cities i'd assume. Less for for southern and sunbelt cities.
Yeah recent developments have largely denunked the notion that CA is having an exodus any greater than normal, and the Bay Area specifically isnt really changing much.
US Postal Service: Only 3.7% of Household and Business Address Changes that Originate in the Bay Area are Out-of-State
Only 4,000 out of 115,000 household and business address changes during the pandemic are out-of-state, that's 3.7%----1.0% moved to Washington State, and 0.6% moved to Texas. https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/16/64/...8/7/1200x0.jpg
% of movers who relocated out-of-state
6% San Francisco
5% Santa Clara
2% Alameda
2% Contra Costa
1% Marin
1% San Mateo
% of movers who relocated elsewhere in CA
37% Santa Clara
24% Alameda
19% Contra Costa
13% San Francisco
7% Marin
7% San Mateo
% of movers who relocate within 9-county Bay Area
92% San Mateo
91% Marin
81% San Francisco
79% Contra Costa
74% Alameda
58% Santa Clara
The biggest county-to-county shift during this pandemic has not been from San Francisco to some out-of-state location but from Santa Clara to Sacramento and the Central Valley. That far outstrips any migration to Seattle or Austin or anywhere else.
So 94% of folks who left SF relocated within CA and 81% moved to neighboring counties.
I mean CA lost population for the first time ever last year. That might just mean the outflow is normal, but almost no one's moving there now --- that's at least supposedly what's happening in Seattle.
Yeah recent developments have largely denunked the notion that CA is having an exodus any greater than normal, and the Bay Area specifically isnt really changing much.
US Postal Service: Only 3.7% of Household and Business Address Changes that Originate in the Bay Area are Out-of-State
Only 4,000 out of 115,000 household and business address changes during the pandemic are out-of-state, that's 3.7%----1.0% moved to Washington State, and 0.6% moved to Texas.
% of movers who relocated out-of-state
6% San Francisco
5% Santa Clara
2% Alameda
2% Contra Costa
1% Marin
1% San Mateo
% of movers who relocated elsewhere in CA
37% Santa Clara
24% Alameda
19% Contra Costa
13% San Francisco
7% Marin
7% San Mateo
% of movers who relocate within 9-county Bay Area
92% San Mateo
91% Marin
81% San Francisco
79% Contra Costa
74% Alameda
58% Santa Clara
The biggest county-to-county shift during this pandemic has not been from San Francisco to some out-of-state location but from Santa Clara to Sacramento and the Central Valley. That far outstrips any migration to Seattle or Austin or anywhere else.
So 94% of folks who left SF relocated within CA and 81% moved to neighboring counties.
It is 4000 households (and businesses). So maybe around 10,000 people. During a 6 month period where we were told not to leave your house and the labor market nationwide was frugal. California’s government is predicting net exits increased 650% from the Bay Area from 2019. So while yes the movement was mostly in-state, there was a big increase in the intensity of the movement and California will almost assuredly have another year with less people than it had at it’s peak 3 or 4 years ago. That’s West Virginia and Illinois territory of no growth eek.
It is 4000 households (and businesses). So maybe around 10,000 people. During a 6 month period where we were told not to leave your house and the labor market nationwide was frugal. California’s government is predicting net exits increased 650% from the Bay Area from 2019. So while yes the movement was mostly in-state, there was a big increase in the intensity of the movement and California will almost assuredly have another year with less people than it had at it’s peak 3 or 4 years ago. That’s West Virginia and Illinois territory of no growth eek.
And New York, let's not forget New York, which has lost even more...eek.
It is 4000 households (and businesses). So maybe around 10,000 people. During a 6 month period where we were told not to leave your house and the labor market nationwide was frugal. California’s government is predicting net exits increased 650% from the Bay Area from 2019. So while yes the movement was mostly in-state, there was a big increase in the intensity of the movement and California will almost assuredly have another year with less people than it had at it’s peak 3 or 4 years ago. That’s West Virginia and Illinois territory of no growth eek.
Yeah those estimates have since been retracted and debunked, due to actual data.
This story is from March 5, 2021 and is titled: Study: Reports Of Mass Exodus From California in 2020 Are False
Fewer people moved in due to the pandemic but outward migration was actually normal...I know that must be disappointing to Enean and others...but here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBS News Bay Area
Departures from the state were consistent with historical patterns but the biggest statewide change was fewer people moving into California, the lab said in a press release.
The biggest county-to-county shift during this pandemic has not been from San Francisco to some out-of-state location but from Santa Clara to Sacramento and the Central Valley. That far outstrips any migration to Seattle or Austin or anywhere else.
So 94% of folks who left SF relocated within CA and 81% moved to neighboring counties.
Yeah we are seeing it big time in Sacramento County. The gap between Rents and Home Prices between the Sac-Joaquin region and the Bay Area has gotten a bit smaller too.
It still #10 or #11 in the country by population radius so no.. I wouldn’t call it the new Detroit as there population losses are different
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