Will Atlanta become the 5th largest metropolitan area in the country? (moving, downtown)

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

Yes, Michigander Tex, definitely "a few." Atlanta will be 9th-largest for a while. It won't be the fifth-largest metro this century, probably. This thread's title is civic boosterism on steroids.

Wrong, the person that started this thread is a Seattle resident.

[MichiganderTexan]

Originally Posted by JMatl

Wrong, the person that started this thread is a Seattle resident.

He's from Atlanta though isn't he? I don't think the creator of this thread is promoting boosterism though.. these are simply the long term population projections 30-40 years out. As I've said before that was based on 1900-2010 Atlanta growth rates. It's possible the growth rates of the 2020s and going forward in Atlanta slows dramatically. It already slowed a decent amount in the 2010s. This was the slowest growth rate for Georgia in decades although it still saw the 4th highest numerical increase in population behind Texas, Florida and California.

[ShenardL]

Originally Posted by MichiganderTexan

He's from Atlanta though isn't he? I don't think the creator of this thread is promoting boosterism though.. these are simply the long term population projections 30-40 years out. As I've said before that was based on 1900-2010 Atlanta growth rates. It's possible the growth rates of the 2020s and going forward in Atlanta slows dramatically. It already did in the 2010s. This was the slowest growth rate for Georgia in decades although it still saw the 4th highest numerical increase in population behind Texas, Florida and California.

The main appeal for me to go to Florida or Texas would be the no-state tax. Georgia and North Carolina are doing pretty well without it.

[MichiganderTexan]

Originally Posted by ShenardL

The main appeal for me to go to Florida or Texas would be the no-state tax. Georgia and North Carolina are doing pretty well without it.

To me personally the no state income tax is overrated as a major perk in Texas unless you are wealthy or a very high income earner. They make up for it in other ways like having very high property taxes, and expensive toll roads that are basically required for your commute. I know a family in Texas that between the wife and husband they spend at least $400-$500 a month on toll roads together. Probably more than the average person but even the average I don't think spending $100-$200 a month per person is uncommon depending on where you commute. Probably some families spending a good bit more than the $400-$500 too.

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by MichiganderTexan

He's from Atlanta though isn't he? I don't think the creator of this thread is promoting boosterism though.. these are simply the long term population projections 30-40 years out. As I've said before that was based on 1900-2010 Atlanta growth rates. It's possible the growth rates of the 2020s and going forward in Atlanta slows dramatically. It already slowed a decent amount in the 2010s. This was the slowest growth rate for Georgia in decades although it still saw the 4th highest numerical increase in population behind Texas, Florida and California.

Yes, he's originally from here. I agree with you that he didn't create this thread to promote Atlanta, he isn't the boosterish type at all.

[primaltech]

Yeah, I'm from Atlanta. Lived around there all my life until the last year and a half here in Seattle. I like it here and am planning to stay.

I'm not sure yet if I'll ever move back to Atlanta- definitely maybe. Most of my family is there, so I'll definitely visit every year and check on the progress of everything.

I find the Atlanta transit issues really frustrating, and the Georgia politics issues. And I don't miss the humidity whatsoever. But, I still like Atlanta, it will always be home, etc. I want to see it do well, but this thread was just curiosity, not any agenda.

Though I would honestly move back to Atlanta before I'd move to really any of its sunbelt competitors. And that's even if I had no family or friends or connections there. Most of them are smaller (Nashville, Charlotte, etc), like comparing Portland to Seattle. Dallas and Houston are larger, but they have zero appeal to me. But if you like Texas, cool, have at it.

[primaltech]

Originally Posted by ShenardL

The main appeal for me to go to Florida or Texas would be the no-state tax. Georgia and North Carolina are doing pretty well without it.

I do appreciate the no state income tax in Washington. Was a nice little raise. One reason why WA is the only state on the west coast I'm interested in residing.

[primaltech]

As far as will Atlanta be the 5th largest MSA, it's currently 9th and:

-It will undoubtedly pass Philadelphia very soon
-Washington DC and Miami MSA's are only slightly larger, and both grew slower between 2010-2020
-Chicago is barely growing at all
-Phoenix is the wildcard that might even become larger than Atlanta

So ATL will definitely be 8th, and might well be the 6th largest US "city" within a reasonable time, but it will take a while to pass Chicago's 9.6 million even with no growth there, and aptly-named Phoenix might eventually pass Atlanta by that time.

[cdw1084]

Originally Posted by primaltech

As far as will Atlanta be the 5th largest MSA, it's currently 9th and:

-It will undoubtedly pass Philadelphia very soon
-Washington DC and Miami MSA's are only slightly larger, and both grew slower between 2010-2020
-Chicago is barely growing at all
-Phoenix is the wildcard that might even become larger than Atlanta

So ATL will definitely be 8th, and might well be the 6th largest US "city" within a reasonable time, but it will take a while to pass Chicago's 9.6 million even with no growth there, and aptly-named Phoenix might eventually pass Atlanta by that time.

Atlanta outgrew Phoenix in raw numbers this last decade so that's pretty much an outreach at this point.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by MichiganderTexan

To me personally the no state income tax is overrated as a major perk in Texas unless you are wealthy or a very high income earner. They make up for it in other ways like having very high property taxes, and expensive toll roads that are basically required for your commute. I know a family in Texas that between the wife and husband they spend at least $400-$500 a month on toll roads together. Probably more than the average person but even the average I don't think spending $100-$200 a month per person is uncommon depending on where you commute. Probably some families spending a good bit more than the $400-$500 too.

I keep ~ $200 on my TXTag. I work remotely but if I had to commute every day it could cost me about $200 monthly. I also had to keep money on my PeachPass, but considerably less.

Without the toll roads considered I would say they’re pretty close between high property tax / no income tax vs lower property tax / income tax. I did a comparison between W.Plano and Roswell awhile back and the difference was about $200 a year (which isn’t much) savings in TX. Now if one is renting and lives near their job (no tolls) in TX, there is a considerable savings. Property owners eat the cost of running the state.