Will Atlanta become the 5th largest metropolitan area in the country? (best, America)

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by MichiganderTexan

Not sure Atlanta will keep up its current growth rates, they have already been decreasing. Dallas and Houston will definitely pass Chicago sooner rather than later. Atlanta may not get there within the next 40 years and may be surpassed by Phoenix.

Well that answer is not much use because you are saying anything is possible. At least mine starts with a reasonable set of assumptions and projects from there.

Yes, Atlanta could slow from it's current rate and take longer than 30 years to pass Chicago. Phoenix could speed up in which case Atlanta metro will never rise higher than #6.

Hypothetically using the growth rates from 200-2010 and assuming Chicago stays at present population then these are the number of years it will take for these metro areas to surpass Chicago.
9.7 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
13.3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA
28.9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA
30.3 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
33.4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
38.7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA

So you guesstimate is reasonable.
By the 2030 census Dallas will be #3 and Chicago #4.
By the 2040 census Dallas will be #3 and Houston will be #4 and Chicago #5.
By the 2050 census Dallas will be #3 and Houston will be #4 and Atlanta and Phoenix will be neck and neck for #5

[Need4Camaro]

I personally do not see how Phoenix will beat Atlanta to Chicago.

[LTCM]

Does anyone care for any reason other than bragging rights?

[Citykid3785]

Atlanta doesn't have the geographical boundaries (lake, mountains) that limit its growth on certain sides like Chicago does. And we are in the sun belt with a good airport, all things in our favor.

I hate that DC and Baltimore are separated, as are Boston and Providence, and San Fran Oakland and San Jose. That does skew the rankings a bit.

It should be noted that US population growth rate is slowing in general, and is believed to top out close to 400M people. Obviously that doesn't prevent people from shifting from one place to another.

All that to say, I do believe we can pass Philadelphia and Miami, but if you couple boston and providence (6.5M), DC and Baltimore (9.1), and the bay area (6.7), we'd still have a little ways to go to pass them.

[bryantm3]

I think we are in one of those turning points in history, like around world war 2 when the established order was created. I don't know if population trends can be extrapolated right now, with so much change happening (climate, information technology, energy, labor, etc.). I think it will probably be 2030 until we know where we're headed.

[Citykid3785]

I know this is not Atlanta specific, but I think it's interesting to see the current world populations by country in 2100. The US is only projected to grow by 3% over the next 80 years. This is based on rates of birth/mortality/immigration.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wor...-2100-country/

Bringing it back to ATL, effectively we are going to grow by "stealing" people from other US cities, which fits the Sunbelt narrative.

[JMatl]

I hope not. An additional 2 to 3 million people here is not something to aspire to.

[primaltech]

Originally Posted by LTCM

Does anyone care for any reason other than bragging rights?

I mean, I think it's a big enough deal for international prominence. And those type of reasons. I'm just personally fascinated.

[primaltech]

Originally Posted by Citykid3785

I hate that DC and Baltimore are separated, as are Boston and Providence, and San Fran Oakland and San Jose. That does skew the rankings a bit.

True. I didn't realize the bay area was split up.

In this category, Atlanta is 10th largest, already larger than Miami, and definitely soon to be larger than Philly:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combin...tistical_areas

[bryantm3]

Do we not have numbers from the census last year yet?