Will Atlanta become the 5th largest metropolitan area in the country? (Phoenix, rail)

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by Charlotte485

I mean. I assume they continue to grow out further and further. So it could be a wash on the mayhem.

Dallas and Atlanta have massive land areas.

DC is 5,564 Sq. Miles, 6.39M people
Baltimore is 3,104 Sq. miles 2.94M people

DC + Baltimore = 8,668 Sq. miles, 9.23M people
Atlanta is 8,736 Sq. Miles, 6.02M people
Dallas is 9,286 Sq. Miles, 7.63M people
Houston is 10,062 Sq. miles, 7.00M people

Take in mind county size plays a massive role here. Just looking at core counties, they are far more comparable.

Atlanta- Fulton+Gwinnett-Cobb+DeKalb+Clayton
3,851,898 in 1705.72 miles according to the census. Roughly 63% of the MSA.
2258 ppsm.

Houston- Fort Bend+Harris+Montgomery+Galveston+Pearland (only important suburb missing, and it fits comfortably in between Harris/Fort Bend and Galveston, theirs's minor overlap).
6,651,057 in 4032.08 miles according to the census. Roughly 93% of the MSA
1650 ppsm
Just Harris: 4,731,325 in 1703.48 miles according to the census. Roughly 66% of the MSA
2777 ppsm

Dallas- Tarrant+Dallas+Collin+Denton
6,695,066 in 3454.55 miles according to the census. Roughly 88% of the MSA
1938 ppsm
When you add Rockwall County
6,802,885 in 3581.59 miles according to the census. Roughly 89% of the MSA
1869 ppsm

Washington- D.C+Loudoun+Fairfax+Arlington+Alexandria+Ind. Cities+Prince George's+Montgomery
5,269,184 in 3239.48 miles according to the census. Roughly 83% of the MSA
1626 ppsm
When you add Anne Arundel and Howard
6,189,762 in 3905.12 miles according to the census.
1585 ppsm

As you can see their a lot closer. You can easily cut out most counties in Houston and Dallas and have it be denser or just as dense as Washington, D.C over more miles. Even if you add Howard and Anne Arundel Counties.
Their still plenty of space in the above counties let alone the rest of Dallas/Houston/Atlanta's MSAs.

I'm still thinking of adding Forsyth+Cherokee+Rockdale+Henry+Hall+Douglas+Fayet te Counties to Atlanta to see how it stacks up with more of it's MSA included, (Yes, I know Hall isn't part of it).

[Mutiny77]

Originally Posted by cpomp

Yup, and also, how can anyone predict WHEN and even IF Atlanta metro will pass Chicago metro? Chicago metro has almost twice as many people, it would take decades for Atlanta to surpass Chicago if growth rates remained unchanged (which they won't). Some of these outlandish homer predications are getting silly, and as you said, uncontrolled growth is not exclusively positive.

Chicago has 3.5M more people in its metro than Atlanta. That's quite a bit more, but not "almost" another 6.1M people.

[NigerianNightmare]

I will say the biggest downside Atlanta has is that the black population, not in combination population pf the country is fairly likely to decline by 2030, and if immigration holds it up, then maybe 2040. As of right now the birth rate of African Americans is declining, and only immigration will increase black growth heading towards 2030-2040. Atlanta's growth was 50.6% or something around that black people moving in. If the African American population declines, and Africans aren't as interested in Atlanta, then that will affect growth later down the line. It may will also affect all cities. But a city relying more on Asian and Hispanic growth, will likely worry less.

Even if their is a decline, the growth is so strong, that a decline in real African American population won't necessarily mean a decline in the movement of African Americans from the North, West and Midwest to the South.

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

Take in mind county size plays a massive role here. Just looking at core counties, they are far more comparable.

Atlanta- Fulton+Gwinnett-Cobb+DeKalb+Clayton
3,851,898 in 1705.72 miles according to the census. Roughly 63% of the MSA.
2258 ppsm.

Houston- Fort Bend+Harris+Montgomery+Galveston+Pearland (only important suburb missing, and it fits comfortably in between Harris/Fort Bend and Galveston, theirs's minor overlap).
6,651,057 in 4032.08 miles according to the census. Roughly 93% of the MSA
1650 ppsm
Just Harris: 4,731,325 in 1703.48 miles according to the census. Roughly 66% of the MSA
2777 ppsm

Dallas- Tarrant+Dallas+Collin+Denton
6,695,066 in 3454.55 miles according to the census. Roughly 88% of the MSA
1938 ppsm
When you add Rockwall County
6,802,885 in 3581.59 miles according to the census. Roughly 89% of the MSA
1869 ppsm

Washington- D.C+Loudoun+Fairfax+Arlington+Alexandria+Ind. Cities+Prince George's+Montgomery
5,269,184 in 3239.48 miles according to the census. Roughly 83% of the MSA
1626 ppsm
When you add Anne Arundel and Howard
6,189,762 in 3905.12 miles according to the census.
1585 ppsm

As you can see their a lot closer. You can easily cut out most counties in Houston and Dallas and have it be denser or just as dense as Washington, D.C over more miles. Even if you add Howard and Anne Arundel Counties.
Their still plenty of space in the above counties let alone the rest of Dallas/Houston/Atlanta's MSAs.

I'm still thinking of adding Forsyth+Cherokee+Rockdale+Henry+Hall+Douglas+Fayet te Counties to Atlanta to see how it stacks up with more of it's MSA included, (Yes, I know Hall isn't part of it).

The difference is DC’s population center continues which separates it from all the southern metros. Howard County touches Baltimore City. The population center between DC and NYC is really continuous. Driving from DC to NYC is really telling compared to any metro in the south. In 3 1/2 hours leaving DC by car, you’re in NYC. Along the way, you pass Baltimore City, Wilmington, and Philadelphia.

[demonta4]

Originally Posted by primaltech

Totally agreed.

Though technically, though it is obviously tiny and not even close to what it should be, Atlanta does have a subway, which Dallas and Houston don't. But of course, they never expand it or use it to its potential.

And of course, Dallas and Houston's freeway and road and street grid systems make a billion times more sense than Atlanta's. The fact that I-285 is still the only bypass loop (essentially for the entire state), is insane. And MARTA's lack of being allowed to build a single rail station in 20 years is insane.

Just like you said, Atlanta doesn't have transportation infrastructure to adequately support even its current size and sprawl, be it transit or the roads system.

But, the sprawling area will grow in population nonetheless.

Wish we had a greenbelt. It would encourage denser development, transit development, and keep a ton of untainted North Georgia forest from being clearcut for ugly subdivisions.

[TacoSoup]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

Chicago was America's second city from 1890 to 1990 when it was surpassed by Los Angeles.

Maybe the city proper population on the census? I’m sure the city of Los Angeles passed Chicago well before 1990? And as for the metro (which this thread is about), LA passed Chicago for second largest in the country by 1960.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by Zedd90

No, people are actually moving into the city that can afford it. While for the unfortunate areas people are moving out, mainly the far west and south sides. Chicago is still building condos and apartments near the south loop and west loop. There's also a lot of gentrification going on.

While Chicago's growth isn't rapid, Chicago will probably still reach 10 million population in the MSA by 2030. Then by 2040 Chicago may reach 10.5 Million. The growth is slow, but Chicago is some what reviving itself. A lot of the younger generations are moving back into the city.

Chicago just needs to work on cleaning themselves up, which they are some what in the process now.

Atlanta needs to focus on their infrastructure. It's getting better, but still behind other cities in their tier group.

Based on greater Chicago growth the last 30 years, its very unlikely, it will it get to 10 million in 10 years. Growth for 2010 - 2020 was 250K

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by Zedd90

I can't imagine the Dallas and the Atlanta metro reaching 9+ million. It'll be mayhem without a "decent" transit system. I can imagine the growth rates ends up slowing down a bit in a couple decades. Kind of like how the California metros are today. Maybe not to that extent, but similar. Or instead, both Dallas and Atlanta end up building more vertical. Then again, it's kind of challenging to create a dense vertical environment without a good transit system. They both kind of go hand to hand. Unless you want a LA type of city, which is a mess.

L.A. is mess? The road infrastructure is far better than that of Chicagoland. The public transit isn't s good but much improved compared to 30 years go.

DFW is at 7.6 million, or over 1.5 million more than Atlanta. Until this century, DFW had very little rail. So I can't agree with your premise that mass transit is the key to being a 9 million metro.

In terms of transportation And logistics, DFW has much better road system than Chicago or Atlanta. I hs four interstates. It has twice as much rail as Atlanta. Other keys to growth is interstate access and air travel. DFW airport has six runways and can expand to 9. DFW has both American And Southwest airlines based there. Like Chicago, DFW has two commercial passenger airports but unlike the Windy City, it also has a large cargo only Airport complex where Fedex nd Amazon have major operations - Alliance airport. DFW is a major rail hub with BNSF RR HQs and a direct rail link to the Los Angeles/Long Beach sea ports. Its has access to the Houston seaport, four hours south. That sounds more strategic than Chicago for moving goods.

Last, a key consideration in these times is water. DFW/north TX just finished its first reservoir in 30 years and began construction on the next one.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

I will say the biggest downside Atlanta has is that the black population, not in combination population pf the country is fairly likely to decline by 2030, and if immigration holds it up, then maybe 2040. As of right now the birth rate of African Americans is declining, and only immigration will increase black growth heading towards 2030-2040. Atlanta's growth was 50.6% or something around that black people moving in. If the African American population declines, and Africans aren't as interested in Atlanta, then that will affect growth later down the line. It may will also affect all cities. But a city relying more on Asian and Hispanic growth, will likely worry less.

Even if their is a decline, the growth is so strong, that a decline in real African American population won't necessarily mean a decline in the movement of African Americans from the North, West and Midwest to the South.

Excellent observation.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

I will say the biggest downside Atlanta has is that the black population, not in combination population pf the country is fairly likely to decline by 2030, and if immigration holds it up, then maybe 2040. As of right now the birth rate of African Americans is declining, and only immigration will increase black growth heading towards 2030-2040. Atlanta's growth was 50.6% or something around that black people moving in. If the African American population declines, and Africans aren't as interested in Atlanta, then that will affect growth later down the line. It may will also affect all cities. But a city relying more on Asian and Hispanic growth, will likely worry less.

Even if their is a decline, the growth is so strong, that a decline in real African American population won't necessarily mean a decline in the movement of African Americans from the North, West and Midwest to the South.

Very interesting and good points regarding Atlanta. I know a lot of Africans have immigrated to and live in Houston. I think it has one of the fastest growing African populations not just in the south but the entire country.