Will Atlanta become the 5th largest metropolitan area in the country? (cost, places)

[walker1962]

No, infrastructure for metro Atlanta is inadequate - road system, rail system/transit, and one airport.
NYC, LA, Chicago, DFW, DC and Houston all have at least two airports;
All but Houston have more commuter rail

I also think Charlotte, Raleigh, and Nashville have higher national profiles than 20 years ago with Oracle and Apple making major commitments in two of those cities. I also think Tampa/St. Pete may garner some growth, more so than Miami/Ft. Lauderdale the next ten years. All of the metro areas named have one thing in common, population that are significant but a good 2 to 3 million less than metro Atlanta with Tampa being the largest at 3.2 million. They have room to grow with good land prices.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

Chicago was America's second city from 1890 to 1990 when it was surpassed by Los Angeles.



Hypothetically using the growth rates from 200-2010 and assuming Chicago stays at present population then these are the number of years it will take for these metro areas to surpass Chicago.
9.7 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
13.3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA
28.9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA
30.3 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
33.4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
38.7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA

So you guesstimate is reasonable.
By the 2030 census Dallas will be #3 and Chicago #4.
By the 2040 census Dallas will be #3 and Houston will be #4 and Chicago #5.
By the 2050 census Dallas will be #3 and Houston will be #4 and Atlanta and Phoenix will be neck and neck for #5

If we assume Chicago shrinks in population I doubt that it will shrink enough to change these predictions by a whole census.
It would take a massive reduction in population in Chicago metro area (~7% over the decade) to cause Dallas and Houston to surpass Chicago by 2030 (assuming they grow at present rate).

I live in Dallas/FW and this has been discussed from the north Texas perspective too. The wildcard for D/FW and Texas, in general, is will there be an acceleration in departures from west of the Rockies eastward? Its been substantial before the recent heightened drought/wildfire events.

[aries4118]

Originally Posted by primaltech

True. I didn't realize the bay area was split up.

In this category, Atlanta is 10th largest, already larger than Miami, and definitely soon to be larger than Philly:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combin...tistical_areas

PSA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statis...s)?wprov=sfti1

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by walker1962

I live in Dallas/FW and this has been discussed from the north Texas perspective too. The wildcard for D/FW and Texas, in general, is will there be an acceleration in departures from west of the Rockies eastward? Its been substantial before the recent heightened drought/wildfire events.

With your unhinged Governor and Legislature, combined with the pathetic shape of your electric grid I wouldn't count on it continuing.

[Citykid3785]

Originally Posted by aries4118

PSA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statis...s)?wprov=sfti1

Thanks! For all that I personally knew about population stats, I was unaware of the PSA!

[primaltech]

Almost seems like cheating to count Athens and Atlanta as the same area. Those are really 2 separate areas.

Kind of a tough call on Washington/Baltimore, or Boston/Providence. Borderline cases like that.

Seattle/Tacoma, sure, that's basically all one area. San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose, sure, that's one big related area.

[chiatldal]

Originally Posted by walker1962

No, infrastructure for metro Atlanta is inadequate - road system, rail system/transit, and one airport.
NYC, LA, Chicago, DFW, DC and Houston all have at least two airports;
All but Houston have more commuter rail

I also think Charlotte, Raleigh, and Nashville have higher national profiles than 20 years ago with Oracle and Apple making major commitments in two of those cities. I also think Tampa/St. Pete may garner some growth, more so than Miami/Ft. Lauderdale the next ten years. All of the metro areas named have one thing in common, population that are significant but a good 2 to 3 million less than metro Atlanta with Tampa being the largest at 3.2 million. They have room to grow with good land prices.

You are set with the idea that Atlanta specifically is going to some how fall from grace but the region itself will continue to grew as if Atlanta and the larger region aren't both likely to grow.

As if Atlanta is the only dominate regional city that has regional competition. And that regional competition is going gain on Atlanta. As if smaller cities are going to grow to be on Atlanta tier, as if Atlanta won't grow to another tier itself by then.

In the South central region besides DFW and Houston, their other fast growing Sunbelt cities Austin, OKC, San Antonio, Tusla etc. DFW and Houston aren't the only cities booming. Historically when the Midwest was booming it wasn't just Chicago but Detroit, Cleveland, Minneapolis. The East coast isn't just New York but Boston, Philly, DC etc are there. Every region has smaller cities that competing against a much larger ones.

Now we don't know the future but what we do know Atlanta is 4 to 3 million larger than some of the cities you mention and Atlanta is factually still growing much larger by raw numbers then Charlotte, Nashville etc. This thread is asking will Atlanta catch Chicago but this idea is only presentable because Chicago isn't growing much. with broader factors like the whole Midwest region slowed down not just Chicago. So if Atlanta did slow down the likely the Sunbelt itself slow significantly. So the likely hood Atlanta slowed but Nashville, Charlotte are still booming is very unlikely. Then the gap between Charlotte/Nashville is just as wide as the gap between Atlanta and Chicago, except Atlanta still growing by raw numbers more than then Charlotte, Nashville etc.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

I personally do not see how Phoenix will beat Atlanta to Chicago.

Using the 2000-2010 growth rates Phoenix is only 17 months behind beating Atlanta to Chicago. Basically that is a race which can be changed by small percentages.

Atlanta is almost a decade ahead of Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach. I doubt that Miami will win unless there is a major war in Latin America that drives a million people to Miami.

There have already been large rank changes in last 3 decades. These were the stats in 1990 for metro areas and combined metro areas over 2 million.

1. 19,549,649 New York--Northern New Jersey--Long Island, NY--NJ--CT--PA CMSA
2. 14,531,529 Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA CMSA
3. 8,239,820 Chicago--Gary--Kenosha, IL--IN--WI CMSA
4. 6,727,050 Washington--Baltimore, DC--MD--VA--WV CMSA
5. 6,253,311 San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA
6. 5,892,937 Philadelphia--Wilmington--Atlantic City, PA--NJ--DE--MD CMSA
7. 5,455,403 Boston--Worcester--Lawrence, MA--NH--ME--CT CMSA
8. 5,187,171 Detroit--Ann Arbor--Flint, MI CMSA
9. 4,037,282 Dallas--Fort Worth, TX CMSA
10. 3,731,131 Houston--Galveston--Brazoria, TX CMSA
11. 3,192,582 Miami--Fort Lauderdale, FL CMSA
12. 2,970,328 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA
13. 2,959,950 Atlanta, GA MSA
14. 2,859,644 Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA
15. 2,538,834 Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI MSA
16. 2,498,016 San Diego, CA MSA
17. 2,492,525 St. Louis, MO--IL MSA
18. 2,394,811 Pittsburgh, PA MSA
19. 2,238,480 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA
20. 2,067,959 Tampa--St. Petersburg--Clearwater, FL MSA

These were the estimated stats in 2020 for metro areas (not including combined MSA) over 3 million

1. 19,124,359 New York City-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA
2. 13,109,903 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA
3. 9,406,638 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA
4. 7,694,138 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
5. 7,154,478 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA
6. 6,324,629 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
7. 6,173,008 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA
8. 6,107,906 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA
9. 6,087,762 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA
10. 5,059,909 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
11. 4,878,211 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH MSA
12. 4,696,902 San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA MSA
13. 4,678,371 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA (formerly part of Los Angeles MSA)
14. 4,304,136 Detroit–Warren–Dearborn, MI MSA
15. 4,018,598 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA
16. 3,657,477 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA
17. 3,332,427 San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA MSA
18. 3,243,963 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA
19. Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA
20. St. Louis, MO--IL MSA
21. Pittsburgh, PA MSA

These are the estimated rank in 2030 for metro areas (not including combined MSA)

1. New York City-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA
3. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
4. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA
5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA
6. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA
7. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
8. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA
9. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
10. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by JMatl

With your unhinged Governor and Legislature, combined with the pathetic shape of your electric grid I wouldn't count on it continuing.

I can agree on the Governor but the power grid will resolved. But please don't act like other states haven't had power grid issues. In some ways, the mix of resources used is much better than most other states. By far, Texas is first in wind power, and second in solar energy. Texas was sixth in overall increase in renewable energy from 2010-2019 - https://www.globaltrademag.com/state...gy-production/

Oh and based on this research, Texas still ranks better than GA.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...ructure/energy

Winterizing will be the key.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

Using the 2000-2010 growth rates Phoenix is only 17 months behind beating Atlanta to Chicago. Basically that is a race which can be changed by small percentages.

Atlanta is almost a decade ahead of Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach. I doubt that Miami will win unless there is a major war in Latin America that drives a million people to Miami.

There have already been large rank changes in last 3 decades. These were the stats in 1990 for metro areas and combined metro areas over 2 million.

1. 19,549,649 New York--Northern New Jersey--Long Island, NY--NJ--CT--PA CMSA
2. 14,531,529 Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA CMSA
3. 8,239,820 Chicago--Gary--Kenosha, IL--IN--WI CMSA
4. 6,727,050 Washington--Baltimore, DC--MD--VA--WV CMSA
5. 6,253,311 San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA
6. 5,892,937 Philadelphia--Wilmington--Atlantic City, PA--NJ--DE--MD CMSA
7. 5,455,403 Boston--Worcester--Lawrence, MA--NH--ME--CT CMSA
8. 5,187,171 Detroit--Ann Arbor--Flint, MI CMSA
9. 4,037,282 Dallas--Fort Worth, TX CMSA
10. 3,731,131 Houston--Galveston--Brazoria, TX CMSA
11. 3,192,582 Miami--Fort Lauderdale, FL CMSA
12. 2,970,328 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA
13. 2,959,950 Atlanta, GA MSA
14. 2,859,644 Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA
15. 2,538,834 Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI MSA
16. 2,498,016 San Diego, CA MSA
17. 2,492,525 St. Louis, MO--IL MSA
18. 2,394,811 Pittsburgh, PA MSA
19. 2,238,480 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA
20. 2,067,959 Tampa--St. Petersburg--Clearwater, FL MSA

These were the estimated stats in 2020 for metro areas (not including combined MSA) over 3 million

1. 19,124,359 New York City-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA
2. 13,109,903 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA
3. 9,406,638 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA
4. 7,694,138 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
5. 7,154,478 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA
6. 6,324,629 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
7. 6,173,008 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA
8. 6,107,906 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA
9. 6,087,762 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA
10. 5,059,909 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
11. 4,878,211 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH MSA
12. 4,696,902 San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA MSA
13. 4,678,371 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA (formerly part of Los Angeles MSA)
14. 4,304,136 Detroit–Warren–Dearborn, MI MSA
15. 4,018,598 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA
16. 3,657,477 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA
17. 3,332,427 San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA MSA
18. 3,243,963 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA
19. Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA
20. St. Louis, MO--IL MSA
21. Pittsburgh, PA MSA

These are the estimated rank in 2030 for metro areas (not including combined MSA)

1. New York City-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA
3. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
4. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA
5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA
6. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA
7. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
8. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA
9. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
10. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA

Admittedly that’s pretty interesting. I knew Phoenix was booming but had no idea it was growing that fast. Main issue with Phoenix though (and this is also prevalent in Atlanta surprisingly, although for different reasons) is they will probably hit a barrier before they reach Chicago levels due to water scarcity in the region. Atlanta doesn’t have water scarcity in its region but it does have to share its main water source with neighboring states which limits its supply.

Originally Posted by walker1962

I can agree on the Governor but the power grid will resolved. But please don't act like other states haven't had power grid issues. In some ways, the mix of resources used is much better than most other states. By far, Texas is first in wind power, and second in solar energy. Texas was sixth in overall increase in renewable energy from 2010-2019 - https://www.globaltrademag.com/state...gy-production/

Oh and based on this research, Texas still ranks better than GA.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...ructure/energy

Winterizing will be the key.

As far as I am concerned, Abbott and Kemp may as well be twins. Kemp handled the election a bit better than Abbott did but outside of that we are splitting hairs in deciphering their governing styles, both seem to be grossly similar and not in a good way.

The whole ERCOT ordeal to me is an issue though. We in Texas will likely ‘not’ be getting winterization. The energy sector is privatized for a reason, and not for the good of the consumer. I personally am suspicious that the whole ordeal was a mock-up in effort to gouge pricing for profit, potentially to pay off debts. California has done similar things. Either way though as long as Texas remains off the national grid they will manipulate the energy sector in a way that suites their personal interest, not the interest of the consumer.