Will Atlanta become the 5th largest metropolitan area in the country? (state, better)

[primaltech]

Just curious what everyone thinks on this topic. I was just looking at this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

New York and Los Angeles in their usual positions at 1 and 2 will not likely change for a long time. They're way ahead of the other metros, and both are growing (slightly).

Chicago at 3rd largest though is a different story. Over 9 million, but shrinking, with less population in 2020 than in 2010.

Based on the trend, with Dallas and Houston's over 20% growth rate, looks at some point (not sure when), they will both surpass Chicago in size, to be the future 3rd and 4th largest in the US.

Atlanta (currently at 9th largest) will definitely pass Philadelphia pretty soon, and looks like will pass both Miami and DC, as those metros are only slightly larger, and Atlanta is growing 50% faster.

Do you think Atlanta will eventually surpass Chicago in metro population? And if so, when do you think in the future that will be?

(Also worth mentioning is Metro Phoenix at #10, currently 1 million fewer people than Metro ATL, but growing at a faster rate, on par with the huge growth in Texas.)

[AnsleyPark]

No idea whether it will or will not, but, until something is done about the area's transportation infrastructure, every Atlantan had better hope it doesn't grow that large.

[primaltech]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

No idea whether it will or will not, but, until something is done about the area's transportation infrastructure, every Atlantan had better hope it doesn't grow that large.

Totally agreed.

Though technically, though it is obviously tiny and not even close to what it should be, Atlanta does have a subway, which Dallas and Houston don't. But of course, they never expand it or use it to its potential.

And of course, Dallas and Houston's freeway and road and street grid systems make a billion times more sense than Atlanta's. The fact that I-285 is still the only bypass loop (essentially for the entire state), is insane. And MARTA's lack of being allowed to build a single rail station in 20 years is insane.

Just like you said, Atlanta doesn't have transportation infrastructure to adequately support even its current size and sprawl, be it transit or the roads system.

But, the sprawling area will grow in population nonetheless.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by primaltech

(Also worth mentioning is Metro Phoenix at #10, currently 1 million fewer people than Metro ATL, but growing at a faster rate, on par with the huge growth in Texas.)

I'm constantly amazed at how fast Phoenix has grown. My mental perception of it is being much smaller than it actually is.

[lorilove]

I expect the "Exceptional Drought" conditions in Phoenix will negatively impact their growth rate at some point.

[PacoMartin]

Chicago was America's second city from 1890 to 1990 when it was surpassed by Los Angeles.

Originally Posted by primaltech

Based on the trend, with Dallas and Houston's over 20% growth rate, looks at some point (not sure when), they will both surpass Chicago in size, to be the future 3rd and 4th largest in the US.

Atlanta (currently at 9th largest) will definitely pass Philadelphia pretty soon, and looks like will pass both Miami and DC, as those metros are only slightly larger, and Atlanta is growing 50% faster.

Do you think Atlanta will eventually surpass Chicago in metro population? And if so, when do you think in the future that will be?

Hypothetically using the growth rates from 200-2010 and assuming Chicago stays at present population then these are the number of years it will take for these metro areas to surpass Chicago.
9.7 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA
13.3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA
28.9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA
30.3 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
33.4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
38.7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA

So you guesstimate is reasonable.
By the 2030 census Dallas will be #3 and Chicago #4.
By the 2040 census Dallas will be #3 and Houston will be #4 and Chicago #5.
By the 2050 census Dallas will be #3 and Houston will be #4 and Atlanta and Phoenix will be neck and neck for #5

If we assume Chicago shrinks in population I doubt that it will shrink enough to change these predictions by a whole census.
It would take a massive reduction in population in Chicago metro area (~7% over the decade) to cause Dallas and Houston to surpass Chicago by 2030 (assuming they grow at present rate).

[R1070]

Originally Posted by primaltech

Totally agreed.

Though technically, though it is obviously tiny and not even close to what it should be, Atlanta does have a subway, which Dallas and Houston don't. But of course, they never expand it or use it to its potential.

And of course, Dallas and Houston's freeway and road and street grid systems make a billion times more sense than Atlanta's. The fact that I-285 is still the only bypass loop (essentially for the entire state), is insane. And MARTA's lack of being allowed to build a single rail station in 20 years is insane.

Just like you said, Atlanta doesn't have transportation infrastructure to adequately support even its current size and sprawl, be it transit or the roads system.

But, the sprawling area will grow in population nonetheless.

Well... technically Dallas has over 3 miles of subway built and a 2nd subway line planned for downtown known as the D2 line.

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

No idea whether it will or will not, but, until something is done about the area's transportation infrastructure, every Atlantan had better hope it doesn't grow that large.

Meh, it didn't get in LA's way. Even though they have a gazillion highways that place is still a mess compared to here.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by waronxmas

Meh, it didn't get in LA's way. Even though they have a gazillion highways that place is still a mess compared to here.

To be fair, Atlanta technically has more lanes Per Capita than Los Angeles as despite having less freeways, the metro ATL is about 3x smaller in population which is enough to offset the significant difference in numbers of freeways

Highway & Motorway Fact Book: Index

Main thing with LA is, it is a denser metro with greater numbers of people living in one general area so while they may have more freeways, it is not enough to offset the amount of people living around them. If however Atlanta were to grow to LA size with its current infrastructure, traffic-wise it would be worse off than LA as freeway lanes per-capita would significantly decrease.

Personally I don't really care if ATL doesn't build another freeway ITP but they seriously need an outer perimeter OTP...with zoning and development restrictions.

Rail transit and density along with smart development planning metro-wide should be the focus of new growth.

[MichiganderTexan]

Not sure Atlanta will keep up its current growth rates, they have already been decreasing. Dallas and Houston will definitely pass Chicago sooner rather than later. Atlanta may not get there within the next 40 years and may be surpassed by Phoenix.