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This is a super exciting skyscraper development for Nashville, indeed.
When it tops out in 2025, it will dramatically transform Nashville's fast-growing skyline.
Currently, Nashville has 34 skyscrapers over 300 feet high, with one recently topping out last month (Giarratana's Prime skyscraper) at 456 feet.
Nashville has truly gone from a mid-sized skyscraper city to a metropolis skyscraper city, with several different clustered skylines--and fast-growing.
With just a handful of towers over 300 feet as recently as 2015 (12 buildings), the city now sits at an eye-popping 34 in late 2023, with the numbers fast-rising.
Nashville has another 7 skyscrapers over 300 feet under construction now, so by 2025, the city could have as many as 44 or 45, topped out (including some new ones just getting under construction in 2024).
And by 2030, Nashville will see itself with about 55-56 skyscrapers on the lower estimate end, and as many as 75-80 on the higher estimate end.
This is so true!!! I think that is one of the things that amazes me about Nashville, it went from a Mid sized city status to Major City status overnight and not showing any sign of slowing down anytime soon. Like stated, if only a portion of these buildings get built it will dramatically change the skyline... In the south i have to truly give it to Miami and Nashville as far as dramatic change in Skylines in the past 10 to 15 years. Totally different cities to say the least. The city even ranks number 1 among large cities for economic recovery from Covid... That in it self speaks volumes
Nashville office vacancy rate is at 20%
Austin is a little higher. Both cities are overbuilt and still overbuilding.
Although, a ton of those planned buildings are mixed use, I still foresee a sharp scaling back in construction. Both in number of buildings and in height.
Situation is even worse when you add in under construction space. Downtown Austin for example has 2.5M sq feet of office space UC, which adds another 10 plus% vacancy.
The residential market in both are really strong, but residential construction usually follows suit and contracts when office construction contracts. And with mix use buildings, there needs to be be analyses of whether it is feasible or not to proceed without the office portion.
Another consideration is that residential and hotel has lower floor to ceiling heights, so a contraction in office construction greatly reduces height.
In the end, both cities will continue to grow, I just wouldn't put money on proposed, approved or even building already under construction. Sorry for being a Debbie Downer but I have lived through a few boom and slow cycles. Many cities have aging office buildings, and adaptive reuse helps to reduce vacancy rates, but it also reduces the need for new construction of residential or hotel.
We can say this for many cities after Covid but they are still building regardless. Atlanta is an example of this.. I guess the zeal to build still exist... As posted above and below link, Nashville is the number one Large city to recover in the US so i don't think they will have too many issues...
We can say this for many cities after Covid but they are still building regardless. Atlanta is an example of this.. I guess the zeal to build still exist... As posted above and below link, Nashville is the number one Large city to recover in the US so i don't think they will have too many issues...
That is mostly due to tourism. There is very little big box retail in downtown Nashville compared to other cities that has seen a big decline. There is a different employment base as well that is demanding a hybrid work schedule. I would love to revisit the Nashville situation in a few years. I think the picture will be totally different.
Nashville, like Austin, is undergoing a boom skyscraper development cycle very few cities see. Atlanta was one in the more recent past, another few examples were Miami, Charlotte, Seattle, Houston, as well as Dallas.
You list Seattle and Houston as spots that has seen a boom in development in the past and Nashville and Austin as cities that are undergoing a boom currently, but that is just relative to where they were though.
Austin tops the country in recent office deliveries as a percentage of the total, while Nashville was second.
Austin's recent deliveries account for a whooping 25% of current stock, and Nashville came in second with recent deliveries accounting for 14% of total office stock.
So it's true, in terms of percentage growth Austin and Nashville are the tops. But percentages as always needs to be taken in context. We see that data and we assume the smaller cities are building more than the big cities.not true.
New York, by far, delivered the most office space in the last decade with 73M sq ft delivered.
Houston was 2nd with 27M sq feet delivered.
Houston delivered 90k+ multi family residential units (twice the number of Miami).
Houston was also #1 for industrial construction, self storage and SFH developed, which indicates a well rounded construction boom.
Austin was #3 for Office deliveries with 25M sq ft.
Seattle 4th with 22M
Chicago 5th with 21M
DC 6th with 17.5M
Atlanta 7th with 17.4M
LA 8th with 13.8M
SF 9th with 13.6M
Boston 10th with 12.4 M
Plano 11.8M
Denver 11M Nashville delivered 10M sq feet of Office space.
Dallas 9.8M
So yes, relative to where they came from, both Austin and Nashville are high on the list for deliveries. But just because they are not talked about much doesn't mean the major cities are not building just as much, or even more. But these bigger cities have so much stock already that as a percentage it is a drop in the bucket
You see the same thing when it comes to multifamily:
1. NY - 238,220 units
2. LA - 116,582
3. Austin - 98,764
4. Houston - 89,448
5. Seattle - 85,429
6. Dallas - 68,927
7. Chicago - 58,790
8. Denver - 58,751
9. Philadelphia - 51,339
10. DC - 50,734
Phoenix - 49,019
Atlanta - 47,126
Miami - 45,763
San Diego - 40,399
San Antonio - 38,526
Columbus - 36,952
Fort Worth -36,686
Portland - 36,172
Boston -35,792
SF - 33,675
Nashville - 32,771
Nashville delivered as many as bigger cities, however those bigger cities had so many already. I think Nashville is positioning itself among the top of the midsized cities but it isn't quite there yet. Austin has entered the door to the bigger guys, but we will see if it stays there.
Shooting up from the downtown skyline is a gleaming 66-story glass behemoth...The tech giant Meta scooped up all 19 floors of office space as construction was underway in early 2022. But when Austin’s tallest building officially opens later this year, all that office space will be empty. Meta has ditched its move-in plans.
Another building downtown had 35 floors scooped up by Google, which continues to pay rent even though its move-in plans are still in flux.
The skyscraper known as “Sixth and Guadalupe†is the most glaring example in the city that made a huge bet on the post-pandemic commercial real estate economy. While other cities worry about a glut of office space as workers resist returning to the familiar 9-to-5 grind, Austin’s challenges are Texas-sized.
The vast majority of projects are blazing ahead without companies lined up to move in. Roughly 87 percent of new office space is expected to open vacant, according to data from the commercial real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield.
Developers and city officials say they’re riding the city’s next expansion, confident that tech companies and other growing industries will flock here in the years to come. Yet others fear the boom could quickly devolve into a bust, telling a cautionary tale about what happens when development outruns a local economy — and what’s left after the good times end.
A lot of these projects were approved for funding before interest rates increased. We will see if these developers continue to get higher interest loans to develop these vanity spec developments. Times have changed. It will take a few years to see it, but I see development in overbuilt cities like Austin and Nashville coming to a screeching hult.
Note: Those are city-of numbers, not metro, so it's possibly misleading about each market. The multifamily numbers are permits, not actual construction (the report says 72% of permitted multifamily units get built).
The report writers seem to be confused. They talk about "markets" but the numbers are for core cities only. That's a classic sign of clickbait.
That is mostly due to tourism. There is very little big box retail in downtown Nashville compared to other cities that has seen a big decline. There is a different employment base as well that is demanding a hybrid work schedule. I would love to revisit the Nashville situation in a few years. I think the picture will be totally different.
Most of Nashville's downtown skyscrapers under construction are both residential and hotel. There are a couple of office towers going up as well -- The Pinnacle (524 feet) in the Nashville Yards development and The Peabody Tower (350 feet) by the Cumberland River.
But Nashville's under construction soon-to-be-tallest, coming in at 750 feet high and 60 stories, is all residential.
Big box in downtown Nashville will fast follow. There are plans for a couple of large footprint retail spaces in the Nashville Yards complex, and speculation is swirling about the potential for an urban Target or Trader Joe's in that space, possibly. Downtown Nashville has seen Apple open a store, as well as a Whole Foods and Publix grocery stores both open large locations downtown, in the past roughly 5 years or so, as well.
Downtown Nashville, and the areas surrounding downtown--midtown (Reed and Beaman districts where there used to sit new and used car dealers), the Gulch/Pietown, and the area surrounding NFL's Titans stadium, are all planning huge skyscraper and high rise districts for residential, office and hotel, planned to break ground in the next 1-2 years.
So the Nashville of 2030 will be phenomenally different than today. Exciting to witness happen so quickly.
Last edited by jjbradleynyc; 10-18-2023 at 11:41 AM..
A lot of these projects were approved for funding before interest rates increased. We will see if these developers continue to get higher interest loans to develop these vanity spec developments. Times have changed. It will take a few years to see it, but I see development in overbuilt cities like Austin and Nashville coming to a screeching hult.
Office construction will come to a screeching halt in every single city in the US for obvious reasons...
I don't see any evidence that residential is "overbuilt" in Austin, though. Construction will slow down a bit everywhere just because credit is tighter, but there is still plenty of market demand.
Also, your post is pretty funny. You start off saying that Austin is building a lot only "relative to where they were" then you turn around and give numbers that put Austin #3 overall of all cities? I would say that clearly goes beyond "relative to where they were"...
"Big box" traditionally refers to a certain type of retailer, not just a big store. Target, Toys R Us, etc. FYI.
A lot of offices were breaking ground in the Seattle area in 2021 and 2022, but the writing was on the wall by last winter due to tech layoffs. Projects will break ground but not as many and probably not on spec.
The last one I can recall was a 12-story office in the U District with the UW as anchor tenant. It's directly on top of the U District subway station. Started in May.
Office construction will come to a screeching halt in every single city in the US for obvious reasons...
I don't see any evidence that residential is "overbuilt" in Austin, though. Construction will slow down a bit everywhere just because credit is tighter, but there is still plenty of market demand.
Also, your post is pretty funny. You start off saying that Austin is building a lot only "relative to where they were" then you turn around and give numbers that put Austin #3 overall of all cities? I would say that clearly goes beyond "relative to where they were"...
True, Austin is building a lot, no matter how you look at it. But relatively it is beyond comparison. Relative to total inventory, recent deliveries account for 25%. The next highest is Nashville at 15%. It's the relative comparison that puts those two head and shoulders above the rest.
When you look at actual sq ft delivered, Austin punched higher than it's weight class, but it wasn't like it was outpacing the cities the poster who I quoted made it seem.
I also agree that Austin isn't over building residential. It was in a pinch for new residential for a while, and it still needs a lot more. However, I did not look at occupancy rates for condos and hirise apartments,so I don't know if they are overbuilding in that department.
It's also true that office construction will pretty much come to a halt everywhere, the poster referenced Nashville and Austins Boom and projected a continuation of that boom over the next 7 years so I cautioned against using current figures for those two cities simply because they were mentioned.
I came down harder on Austin than Nashville simply because Austin is already exhibiting signs of an office slow down, while Nashville hasn't.
Off the top of my head:
HKS tower proposal shrank from 80 to 45 floors
Meta plans to sublet it's lease
Google plans to sublet their lease
Indeed is seeking to sublet even more of it's lease
Conrad Hilton tower seems to have been cancelled.
I am surprised that Waterline hasn't announced a scale back as that building is being built 100 % on spec.
Austin is very core focused, so all these towers will eventually fill up. It's just that the combination of factors (high vacancy rate, high interest rates, tepid tech market, lots of inventory already UC...) makes it likely that a pause is in order. More than likely Austin will have a few years of infill projects before it returns to signature towers. But imo infill projects pack more of a vibrancy punch than signature behemoths
Austin is very core focused, so all these towers will eventually fill up. It's just that the combination of factors (high vacancy rate, high interest rates, tepid tech market, lots of inventory already UC...) makes it likely that a pause is in order. More than likely Austin will have a few years of infill projects before it returns to signature towers. But imo infill projects pack more of a vibrancy punch than signature behemoths
Well, it's not really going out on a limb to say that it might be a few years before another 1000'er like Waterline. Dallas and Houston haven't built one of those in 40 years after all! Residential projects are continuing to break ground, though. This one a month ago, for example: https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/new...in-west-campus
I certainly think that interest rates will lead to a slowdown across the nation, and like I said, nobody is going to start big office projects in the near future. I don't see evidence that Austin would be harder hit than anywhere else on this front, though. If anything it will be healthier than most everywhere else as most other cities are more office dominant.
There are arguably 5 different "signature towers" rising as we speak: The Waterline, the Republic, the modern, ATX tower, and 415 Colorado will all be >600' which would rank in the top 4 buildings in the city today. So there is plenty of skyline transformation continuing to happen over the next 4 years or so!
Last edited by whereiend; 10-18-2023 at 04:38 PM..
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