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That looks basically like the I-95 corridor between the NC border and DC. I kid, but not by much.
Hey, that is the population center of VA lol. I actually didn't go too far south. Petersburg is as far south that I went. A couple of those Northern counties used to actually be officially apart of Richmond's MSA. Prince William is probably the only one that has never been apart of Richmond. At 2,300 square miles I actually went a little light in comparison to some of the other listed metros that passed the 2,500 square mile mark. I like exercises like this because it gives a different view of places for people who aren't as familiar with these metros. I'm sure Raleigh will hit the 2mil mark. The southern counties between Petersburg and NC are actually apart of what drags the Richmond MSA down and makes it so large for no reason. Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield make up 75% of the metro population in just 700 square miles
Grand Rapids MI is somewhat unique in that it's metro is an agglomeration of Grand Rapids and its burbs, and then two smaller but very close urban centers in Holland and portions of Muskegon. It contains portions of three urban areas that extend into 4 counties. Only 2 of those counties are actually part of the GR MSA.
It's metro area is roughly 1,080,000 people in 2689sq mi. But that includes the two large more urban counties of Kent, and Ottawa and then 2 rural counties to the east.
If you just take the 3 largest counties with the contiguous urban areas:
Kent County 657,974..847 sq mi
Ottawa County 296,200...563 sq mi
Muskegon County 175,824.500sq mi
That's 1,129,998 people in 1910sq mi.
If you add in the 4th county that contains the rest of the Holland urban area(Allegan 120,502...825 sq mi) You get 1,250,500 people in 2735 sq mi. This excludes the 2 eastern counties that are part of actual the MSA.
When I look at it this way I feel like the GR area is both overstated AND understated in size.
I did New York - reposted below. Your Suffolk calculation includes a lot of dead space, so I excluded that in my calculation so I could get more of dense Northern New Jersey. Union and Middlesex Counties alone have 1.4 million in the same land area as Eastern Suffolk.
NEW YORK
Bergen County, NJ - 932,202 - 233
Essex County, NJ - 798,975 - 126
Hudson County, NJ - 672,391 - 46
Middlesex County, NJ - 825,062 - 309
Nassau County, NY - 1,356,924 - 285
New York City, NY - 8,336,817 - 300
Passaic County, NJ - 501,826 - 186
Rockland County, NY - 325,789 - 173
Suffolk County, NY only Brookhaven Township and points West - 1,338,062 - 565
Union County, NJ - 556,341 - 103
Westchester County, NY - 967,506 - 431
TOTAL POPULATION - 16,611,895 Land Area: 2,749
Remember that these are based on the 2019 ACS counts, so the 2020 Census numbers would be much higher and the real population in this area is closer to 17.5 million.
It seems like a common refrain when comparing MSAs is that they vary significantly in size. Cleveland's MSA is less than 2,000 square miles (1,999.4 to be exact) whereas Phoenix's is 14,566.7 square miles. That's a huge difference!
But what would happen if we standardized it and tried to compare city sizes at fixed areas. This thread does that by using a 2,500 square mile benchmark.
The rules are simple. Starting with the center county, I'll adjacent counties (prioritizing those with higher density) until the area is 2,500 square miles, +-10% max deviation.
For counties that are themselves > 2,500 square miles, I'll use the Census Bureau's hidden weapon: Census County Divisions.
The end result should allow us to compare metro areas controlling for land area.
Because CCDs are hard to find, and not yet available for 2020 Census data, I'll be using ACS 2019 data.
RALEIGH
Chatham County, NC - only CCDs of Baldwin and Williams - 27,697 - 94
Durham County, NC - 321,488 - 287
Franklin County, NC - only 4 southermost Townships + Louisburg - 49,000 - 250
Granville County, NC - only Dutchville and Brassfield Township - 28,313 - 132
Harnett County, NC - only Black River Township CCD - 11,787 - 29
Johnston County, NC - 209,339 - 791
Orange County, NC excl. Bingham, Cedar Grove and Little River Townships - 132,015 - 203
Wake County, NC - 1,111,761 - 835
TOTAL POPULATION - 1,891,400 Land Area: 2,621
At exactly the same perimeter (2,621 square miles), Charlotte has 2,107,079 people to Raleigh's 1,891,400.
It goes to show just how rural much of Charlotte's CSA is. Raleigh's 1,891,400 is only a smidge lower than the Raleigh CSA totals, while Charlotte's 2,107,079 is 700k below their CSA counts.
So while Charlotte is still bigger in 2,500 square miles than Raleigh, the latter does get much closer to parity than the CSA counts would imply. Both cities have something to crow about.
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