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I could see every city on that list get one within 20 years.
The obvious question, of course, is why? At what point is great height just silly and a waste?
The US added 34.4 million sq. ft. of new office space in the first half of 2021. The vacancy rate is about 12.4%. In Dubai, with the tallest building, the vacancy rate is about 25%. Over 20 million sq. ft. of office space is currently being built in Manhattan.
Only a handful of US cities have skyscrapers currently over 1,000 feet in height.
New York City - 16
Chicago - 5
Los Angeles - 2
Philadelphia - 1
San Francisco - 1
Atlanta - 1
Houston - 1
Which city or cities will be next to most likely build a "super tall" skyscraper, exceeding 1,000 feet in height?
My guesses are below--
Seattle
Dallas
Austin
Miami
Charlotte
Nashville
Boston
*added these cities after further thought Jersey City
Las Vegas
Phoenix
What are your picks ?
Now Jersey City, That would be interesting
The Ny's La's Chicago's and Miami's are Obvious, I don't see LA building too many, LA is not really a skyscraper city, but will likely build a few because it's huge and can support them, Miami Surely Will, I Look Forward to Seeing Chicago build a Supertall I Bet it Will be Classy and Beautiful
For the Next tier of Cities, Which I think is when this topic becomes interesting and yes Miami technically belongs in this Class too, but I don't see too many in Texas, if so It will be Houston , I think, with it's strong economy and Monocentric Metro, Houston may pull one off, either that or Austin I don't think A Supertall makes much sense in Dallas, It's Suburban Growth, it's Focus on the Northern Suburbs, It's Polycentric Nature, and Lack of Focus on Downtown Dallas, What Would be the purpose of building a Supertall in Downtown Dallas, if not Downtown then Where, Forth Worth? A Supertall in Arlington by Jerry's World? Perhaps a Supertall in Frisco or Plano, nah non of that makes sense, But hey I could be wrong 20 years is a long time and Dallas definitely has the Growth Rates for A Supertall
Nashville, Ah Yes Nashville, I Think Nashville will have a Supertall, Nashville is a Scrappy little City trying to push the envelope and get to the Next Level, The New Ritz Carlton, Amazon Moving in, A New Soccer Team, Nashville is one of those Cities that's trying to make a Statement, What Better Statement than a Supertall, Nashville has Tried before with that Signature Tower before it fell thru with the Recession a number of years ago, I would not be surprised to wake up one morning and See A Nashville Supertall being proposed in Nashville Biz Journal or something, To Answer the OP I definitely think Nashville is One of the Ones to Watch, maybe within a decade or so
Atlanta, honestly I'm Surprised Atlanta hasn't built more Supertalls yet, It Has the Growth and Economy for one and is mostly a centralized metro but also largely Suburban, Not Only am I surprised Atlanta hasn't built more 1000 footers but Equally Surprised there Are None in the Pipeline. It Seems like It's not A Priority for Atl, Atlanta is the opposite of Nashville, Atlanta is not trying to reach another level, it's seems pretty comfortable where it is, Atlanta is not trying to make a Statement, it has Already made it's Statements, maybe it doesn't need a Supertall
One and Dones
Philadelphia is One and Done I think, it's made it's Statement that it could build a 1000 footer, But I don't know Philly is going thru something like a renaissance rite now it seems, I think San Fran is one and Done but might pop up a few more within the twenty years, Now Seattle is one to Watch, That Would be interesting, I don't really See one in Charlotte but if so Maybe One, Seems like A Supertall would be out of place in Charlotte in Charlotte, I Have to Google the height of Charlotte's Current Tallest and Second tallest if they're not close too 1000 feet a Supertall could throw off the Balance of Charlotte's skyline, if Charlotte did build a Supertall over 1000 feet I bet it would be beautiful though, like the rest of it's skyline
Odd Balls
Phoenix? Just Why lol
Las Vegas, You really think Las Vegas would do something crazy and go for a Supertall? Lol, That Would be Crazy in an entertaining way, Las Vegas is Already thinking about Building "The Moon" on the Strip, Las Vegas is a crazy city and might go for something like A Supertall, But What Would it Be? I Never heard of a 1000 feet Hotel or Casino
But to Answer the OPs Question more directly, It Says in the thread title the "Next 20 years" but inside the thread it Says "The Next" City or Cities as in the Most Immediate City, I Take that to mean within 3 years and in That case I Say Miami and New York and maybe Austin
(edit: oh wow I just meant to mention a few cities I didn't mean to write a book lol)
Last edited by BlueRedTide; 10-21-2021 at 11:43 PM..
Seattle's plan is in the heart of the financial district, on a half block that's about 2/3 of an acre, a tiny site by most cities' standards.
It's mostly housing. I suspect they're waiting to see whether the office workers mostly return to the office (will a lot of highly-paid workaholics value proximity). Also, a neighboring 58-story apartment on City-owned land could start this winter if it goes forward, after many years of ups and downs, and make the area feel more mixed-use and hospitable than it currently does.
Looks like Miami has multiple proposals at the max allowable height of 1049ft. I saw at least 5.
I am still iffy on hirises in Miami after that building collapse, but the demand in Miami is still strong so I'm sure that 1000ft threshold will be crossed pretty soon.
Trust me that the condo building collapse in Surfside will have no lingering effects on Miami's tower pipeline.
They are waiting for Austin to build theirs so they can build one a foot taller
They can just add a spire to a building for a extra 100 feet or more. Antenna do not count as is the case for Chicago's 2 tall boys. But the New NYC Trade Center/Freedom Tower took top in North America it by a spire that counts, though it's not sleek and looks like a antenna as why Chicago's ole Sears Tower lost the title as its antenna do not count. Clearly too it will probably be a mostly residential tower for any sunbelt city supertall.
We do not build Big business Glory Towers any more. They prefer multiple basic boxes far more in multiple city metros. They do not relocate to cheaper sunbelt cities to think about building a Glory Tower.
We do not even give a thought to Big Oil once centered in the Midwest. Even up to the 1950s. Standard Oil was #2. Early in the 20th century it controlled 91% and Big gov forced it to break up in 1911. Hard to imagine that its Whiting, IN facility southwest of Chicago had once pipelines to send crude from fields in Kansas and Oklahoma and Indiana and Ohio. To its Indiana facility. Still by the late 60s, Standard Oil of Indiana was ready for a Glory Tower and Chicago got it. The white granite clad supertall stands proud yet. Called the AON Center now and half of Kraft/Heinz taking some of the building. Just not for Big Oil. By the 80s Standard Oil became Amoco and now part of BP out of London. Why with all our Big Oil companies. Did only one e build a glory tower supertall? Too prone to boons and bust it seems past few decades.
Big Oil should have for Houston and/or Dallas. Houston had a supertall designed and proposed in the early 80s. Then Recession hit and .... Happens to so many towers from proposal to near ground-breaking and a hold to cancelled in economic slowdowns especially. Some got scaled back and never became supertalls. Seems Big Oil favored cheaper suburban abodes.
Link about the 1982 almost Houston big boy to be called - The Bank of the Southwest Tower at 82 stories.
Plenty in cities proposed and designed, but not built many times by economic slow-downs. Chicago lost like 3 in the 2008 Crash. One a 150 story one whose foundation was in. Hard to guess which sunbelt city might get one that to them will be a status glory tower in their arrival that many crave in c-d for their booming city metro.
Just these towers cost climb fast after 40 stories and cheaper to do 2 than one big tall boy. Also how NYC is costliest to build in cost where you can get a 65-story skyscraper in New York, in Shanghai you can one that’s 120 stories. In Chicago, at that price, you can get a 100-story structure. Probably in Dubai more like closer to a 200 story. Dubai payed migrant workers like well under $1 a hour on building the World's Tallest tower. In China it's under $4 a hour.
One more supertall is ready to build in Chicago and all approvals to go. We shall see if early next year it finally rises. If the economy gets to a slowdown? Who knows. Not every city builds on speculation alone. Especially a fully residential tower. That is why a Miami with international investors might be more willing.
Since a city does not build towers. Investors need to get them financed. If your booming city boast cheaper cost as key it is booming? It reasons might not be super-ripe for a much more costly supertall boy? Could be any sunbelt city boasted it can or should be next and even a Vegas. Guess our billionaires rather build a space ship to invest in to go upward. The wealthy Chinese big investors also dried up in China's crackdown.
A spire may actually improve the look of the building. That flat top looks plain
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The wealthy Chinese big investors also dried up in China's crackdown.
