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Although I believe Richmond is currently experiencing a boom, I don't know if it will be enough to become the next big major city. Norfolk's growth may seem stagnant, but the city has built infrastructure that is matched by few other cities in the United States. Many people on this forum see Norfolk's reliance on the government as a hinderance, but it is actually a great asset. Norfolk is home to the world's largest naval base for a reason. It's location on the middle of the east coast near DC and between the Chesapeake bay, James River, and Elizabeth River make it an ideal port city and naval power house. The United States will always need a strong navy to protect its position as a world power. Not to mention with the global economy, ports cities will continue to be more and more important for receiving and distributing goods all over the world. Obviously the city should not just rely on government spending. Norfolk has also been investing heavily in promoting tech companies, the healthcare industry, and education. The Richmond metro will struggle to surpass Coastal Virginia in population and prominence. Not mention Richmond has to compete with Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia is an economic powerhouse itself that will only continue to grow. Cities south of Virginia really do not have the same level of competition. That is why cities like Atlanta and Charlotte are able to catapult to more major city status. That being said Richmond and Norfolk both have a stronger chance of growth compared to the other cities listed in the poll. They simply have more resources and better economic infrastructure.
My point wasn’t directed at you, mostly just a general statement. Charleston’s history is deep, and it’s booming. But neither are sufficient to make it about to become a major city in the near future.
Given Raleigh is the most noticeable city in the tri-states not included here, it seems a reasonable cutoff for OP’s view on major city. And the timeframe was the next decade. So reworking the question, which city in these three states will see the most growth and be closest to Raleigh’s tier by 2030. Charleston won’t even hit a million people in its region by 2040 even at the breakneck speed it’s growing.
Durham is the one most poised to explode demographically. Between Apple and Google (and maybe a bit of Amazon) coming to the area, growth and national news are likely to hound Durham. I understand it being hard to separate from the region, but being the closest CBD to RTP will begin to pay off. It already is. Between hosting major festivals (the American Dance Festival is a cultural landmark), the sports (don’t forget the Bulls), the DPAC (which regularly places among the top theatres in the country by attendance and acclaim), and growing 24% last decade, the city is basically right there on the cusp. When and if Durham rejoins Raleigh’s MSA (2023 is the next revision), that will only consolidate its good press. It’s proven consistently that it is not a city to be overshadowed by it’s bigger neighbor. 50 years ago, Durham was behind a bunch of these cities. But times have changed, and I think in 2030 it will be the city polled here that will be recognizable to most Americans as ready to jump tiers.
I didn’t think you were talking to me. I was just saying I didn’t understand a part of your post.
The OP said within a reasonable time frame, not within the near future or even within 10 years. It also gave some leeway as to what defined a major city (notoriety, offerings, etc.)
All projections I’ve ever seen put Charleston metro at a million by 2040, some by 2030. Perhaps the 2030 timeframe will be challenged by a slowdown in the nation’s population in general, but perhaps the Charleston metro’s population will be boosted even more since South Carolina, according to the Census Bureau, just moved from 10th fastest-growing to fifth fastest-growing last year, with a big chunk of the growth occurring on the coast.
I believe I said above that I don’t expect any of the cities to truly reach major city status for a long time, but that I figured I might as well go with Charleston based on what I’m seeing and reading.
The OP said “next decade or so”. I’m thinking 2030-2035 time frame was what they had in mind. A million-person metro would be in the Fresno, Tulsa, Tucson, Grand Rapids territory. That isn’t enough to make them major cities in 2020. Important regional cities to be sure, but.
Put it this way, I think Charleston’s biggest “major” assets are ones it has now (location, history, restaurants, downtown). They aren’t going to change in the next decade. What will change (population and economy) aren’t going to grow fast enough to close the gap with larger metros/economies mentioned here. Short of a game-changing pro team like Mutiny’s thought experiment, I don’t know what Charleston could possibly do to alter reality. Not even a ‘90s Austin boom would move the needle enough.
Funny you mention that. A friend and I went down to Hilton Head for a few days last summer, and the discussion went to thoughts on Charleston vs Savannah and I asked her if she preferred Savannah over Charleston. She said yes, said that when she thinks Charleston she thinks plantation. I haven't been to Charleston since I was a kid, but from what I've read and seen, I can see her point. We spent an afternoon in Savannah, drove around town, ventured out of the tourist areas and found a soul food restaurant for dinner. You could feel the "blackness" in the city that maybe isn't as strong as you might feel in Charleston. Charleston has never been at the top on my list of cities to visit to check out the tourist and historical areas. Despite that, I have a friend who moved to Charleston a few years ago, and I plan on visiting and checking it out later this year.
This is true. Charleston is missing one very important type of Black institution that one would think it would have given its history: an HBCU. That makes a difference and helps explain why Columbia is more of a middle-class, upwardly-mobile city for Black folks.
It will be interesting to see the impact that the new International African American Museum will have on tourism in Charleston when it comes to Black visitors.
The OP said “next decade or so”. I’m thinking 2030-2035 time frame was what they had in mind. A million-person metro would be in the Fresno, Tulsa, Tucson, Grand Rapids territory. That isn’t enough to make them major cities in 2020. Important regional cities to be sure, but.
Put it this way, I think Charleston’s biggest “major” assets are ones it has now (location, history, restaurants, downtown). They aren’t going to change in the next decade. What will change (population and economy) aren’t going to grow fast enough to close the gap with larger metros/economies mentioned here. Short of a game-changing pro team like Mutiny’s thought experiment, I don’t know what Charleston could possibly do to alter reality. Not even a ‘90s Austin boom would move the needle enough.
The NC metros on the list, each of which is considerably smaller than metro Charleston, had better get busy if they hope to catch Charleston. Location, history and restaurants are no longer Charleston’s only major assets. It’s tempting to pigeonhole the Charleston region because of the success of its tourism industry, but manufacturing, life sciences, tech, distribution warehouses, at-home workers, and retirees are helping drive the population and GDP growth: a 20% population gain from 2010 to 2020. Again, given the definition of “major city,” out of the cities/metros on the list, I give Charleston as good a chance as any in the next 15 years.
Winston and Greensboro are closer to one another than Summerville is to the Battery. You really can’t separate out them economically (nor Durham and Raleigh). The Triangle and Triad are both significantly bigger regions than Charleston. Even looking at a more granular level, Durham and Guilford counties are richer than Charleston County. But we seem to have hit a dead end.
Winston and Greensboro are closer to one another than Summerville is to the Battery. You really can’t separate out them economically (nor Durham and Raleigh). The Triangle and Triad are both significantly bigger regions than Charleston. Even looking at a more granular level, Durham and Guilford counties are richer than Charleston County. But we seem to have hit a dead end.
No double-dipping. Raleigh is separate from Durham MSA-wise. Summerville is in the Charleston-North Charleston MSA.
The list says Durham itself, Winston-Salem itself, and Greensboro itself. Each “itself” had better get busy.
I've always thought Richmond was prime to blow up. It's a really cool city with great food and distinct identity. It also has great bones and feels a good deal more urban than other southern cities like Raleigh or Nashville. Plus it's proximity to the Northeast Corridor makes it a prime landing spot for transplants from the Northeast. Richmond is a super underrated city.
Winston and Greensboro are closer to one another than Summerville is to the Battery.
Actually the distance from historic downtown Summerville to the Battery is slightly shorter than the distance between the downtowns of Greensboro and Winston-Salem. And the distance from, say, Clemmons to Lake Townsend is 20 miles longer than the distance from Summerville to the Battery.
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You really can’t separate out them economically (nor Durham and Raleigh). The Triangle and Triad are both significantly bigger regions than Charleston. Even looking at a more granular level, Durham and Guilford counties are richer than Charleston County. But we seem to have hit a dead end.
It's a bit easier to separate Greensboro and Winston-Salem than it is Durham and Raleigh. The former pair doesn't have anything like RTP serving as economic connective tissue joining them at the hip which truly makes their MSA distinctions a fluke of geography. It's practically impossible to separate Greensboro and High Point though, while Burlington is already out there by itself compared to the rest of the Triad.
Durham has distanced itself from Winston and Greensboro, even though all three cities are essentially "siblings" if you acknowledge their histories (Raleigh was the odd one out). Today, Durham is a lot more similar to Raleigh, embracing a tech scene that the Triad lacks. Look at all the glitzy apartment complexes popping up across downtown Durham and it becomes clear that the city's "gritty" reputation is fading.
Personally, I think the Triad is underrated, though. With the Innovation Quarter, Winston is almost like a smaller Durham in many respects.
In terms of individual cities, I still believe Richmond has the most potential. It's amazing that Richmond never turned into a major southern city akin to Atlanta. It has one of the richest histories in the South, even if you ignore the Confederate-related history.
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