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View Poll Results: Which city is most likely to become a major city within a reasonable time frame?
Norfolk, VA itself 11 9.73%
Richmond, VA 40 35.40%
Winston-Salem, NC itself 3 2.65%
Durham, NC itself 14 12.39%
Asheville, NC 4 3.54%
Charleston, SC 14 12.39%
Greenville, SC 25 22.12%
Greensboro, NC itself 2 1.77%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-14-2022, 03:26 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
I have serious doubts that a poll asking which city is closer to major city status consisting of Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and Charleston would have Charleston bringing up the rear. Honestly I'm a bit surprised to see you making such an argument, especially based on perception.



I can envision Durham having somewhat similar standing as Charleston statistically if it were a standalone metro, but it's simply too enmeshed within its region to consider it independently in any real sense.

This question works better for cities that are the largest or primary hubs of their metros IMO. It's just not as apples-to-apples as is.
Is a place like Omaha or Jacksonville closer to major city status than St. Paul or Fort Worth? I mean would the general populace say that the former were by default closer because the latter are too enmeshed with larger regions? I don’t think so. They’d consider it from several angles, some of it based on the individual cities, but some of it based on the larger region. Certainly Charleston SC here is not being only graded on what’s going on within the city limits. Mount Pleasant and Summerville and Goose Creek and all of it works towards crafting an image and a perception for the region.

Likewise you can’t separate out Durham from, at the very least, RTP. There is no daylight between the two. If you ignored the skyline, population, universities, and cultural amenity advantage that Durham city has over Charleston city (to me), the fact remains that the RTP is the closest thing either has to a national brand. It will drive perception for the near future. Durham will almost assuredly remain ahead in any race.

As far as Winston and Greensboro, it’s less about their futures than their pasts. Americans are simple people. Talk to us about a major city, and our first two thoughts are skyline and population. In a nation that has spent over a century envying and loathing NYC, it has remained our first barometer for major cities. Not every place can have a Broadway or a Wall Street or a MSG, so we don’t necessarily need to see business and culture and sports (though it helps for tiering the major cities). Build tall and count heads, that’s what we ask.

Charleston will always be hurt perception-wise by the steeples, at least as far as being a major city. You can work around it by counting heads (that’s what DC had to do). But Charleston doesn’t have near the population to offset this. Greensboro and Winston were in the recent past close to fitting the bones and numbers of what passes for a major city in this region. Charleston might get there faster in the future, it has the momentum. But it’s not there now, and I don’t think it will be perception-wise in a decade either. But I’m less adamant on that point than I am in regards to Durham.
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Old 01-14-2022, 07:17 PM
 
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DC doesn’t have to count heads to appear big. Just show an aerial photo of it and people understand it’s a large city (it also helps that its edge cities are bigger than any of the downtowns on this list (Norfolk and Richmond notwithstanding) if you want to point to skylines.
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Old 01-14-2022, 07:32 PM
 
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Originally Posted by spencer114 View Post
DC doesn’t have to count heads to appear big. Just show an aerial photo of it and people understand it’s a large city (it also helps that its edge cities are bigger than any of the downtowns on this list (Norfolk and Richmond notwithstanding) if you want to point to skylines.
I used the past tense “had”. It’s a town that grew its avenues before it filled them. Eventually it caught up.
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Old 01-15-2022, 05:48 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
Likewise you can’t separate out Durham from, at the very least, RTP. There is no daylight between the two. If you ignored the skyline, population, universities, and cultural amenity advantage that Durham city has over Charleston city (to me), the fact remains that the RTP is the closest thing either has to a national brand. It will drive perception for the near future. Durham will almost assuredly remain ahead in any race.
Charleston itself is a national brand and one that's more recognizable than RTP. I've not made an argument for Charleston vs Durham here because I can certainly see an argument in favor of Durham based on the strength of the larger region, but Durham has no skyline advantage over Charleston (neither really has much of one but that's by design for Charleston) and as far as cultural amenities go, they are arguably tied at best or Charleston has a slight advantage.

Quote:
As far as Winston and Greensboro, it’s less about their futures than their pasts. Americans are simple people. Talk to us about a major city, and our first two thoughts are skyline and population. In a nation that has spent over a century envying and loathing NYC, it has remained our first barometer for major cities. Not every place can have a Broadway or a Wall Street or a MSG, so we don’t necessarily need to see business and culture and sports (though it helps for tiering the major cities). Build tall and count heads, that’s what we ask.

Charleston will always be hurt perception-wise by the steeples, at least as far as being a major city. You can work around it by counting heads (that’s what DC had to do). But Charleston doesn’t have near the population to offset this. Greensboro and Winston were in the recent past close to fitting the bones and numbers of what passes for a major city in this region. Charleston might get there faster in the future, it has the momentum. But it’s not there now, and I don’t think it will be perception-wise in a decade either. But I’m less adamant on that point than I am in regards to Durham.
If it's about their pasts, then Charleston still has an argument considering the fact that it used to be a top 10 city in the earliest decades of the history of the Republic. Even if considering only the postwar era, I'd say Winston-Salem would be competitive in terms of passing the eye test but Greensboro, not so much. What Charleston lacks in population and traditional highrises, it makes up for in prestige/exposure, history, and momentum as far as population and economic growth go.

Skyline and population have their place, but people know when what they experience on the ground doesn't seem to mesh with the facts. That's why Jacksonville doesn't have a higher profile than Orlando (and the general public is much more familiar with municipal population figures than metropolitan population figures) and why Boston generally gets more shine than Philly.
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Old 01-15-2022, 09:11 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Charleston itself is a national brand and one that's more recognizable than RTP. I've not made an argument for Charleston vs Durham here because I can certainly see an argument in favor of Durham based on the strength of the larger region, but Durham has no skyline advantage over Charleston (neither really has much of one but that's by design for Charleston) and as far as cultural amenities go, they are arguably tied at best or Charleston has a slight advantage.



If it's about their pasts, then Charleston still has an argument considering the fact that it used to be a top 10 city in the earliest decades of the history of the Republic. Even if considering only the postwar era, I'd say Winston-Salem would be competitive in terms of passing the eye test but Greensboro, not so much. What Charleston lacks in population and traditional highrises, it makes up for in prestige/exposure, history, and momentum as far as population and economic growth go.

Skyline and population have their place, but people know when what they experience on the ground doesn't seem to mesh with the facts. That's why Jacksonville doesn't have a higher profile than Orlando (and the general public is much more familiar with municipal population figures than metropolitan population figures) and why Boston generally gets more shine than Philly.
Charleston has a national brand for tourism. It’s similar to a larger Savannah or Asheville in that regards. It’s not a profile for anything approximating a major city for most people. As far as skyline down there, I don’t know what to say. It’s all steeples and a few 10-story buildings built a century ago, outside the hospital zone. Durham probably has 5 buildings taller than Charleston’s tallest, and another half-dozen taller than most anything else that isn’t a steeple. Maybe a slight exaggeration, and Durham is by no means amazing (particularly with that loner on 15-501). But it’s definitely visible.

As far as past, I’m not talking about our great-great-great-great grandparents time. Greensboro was second biggest and most important city only to Charlotte in this state for much of my grandparents’ and parents’ generations..

Jacksonville doesn’t have a higher profile than Orlando because very few places do. Being the home of Mickey Mouse has its advantages on that front.
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Old 01-15-2022, 09:20 PM
 
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To add something new, here is an interesting development map of downtown Durham.

https://downtowndurham.com/new-development-map/
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Old 01-15-2022, 11:53 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
Charleston has a national brand for tourism. It’s similar to a larger Savannah or Asheville in that regards. It’s not a profile for anything approximating a major city for most people.
It has more name recognition than RTP though.

Quote:
As far as skyline down there, I don’t know what to say. It’s all steeples and a few 10-story buildings built a century ago, outside the hospital zone. Durham probably has 5 buildings taller than Charleston’s tallest, and another half-dozen taller than most anything else that isn’t a steeple. Maybe a slight exaggeration, and Durham is by no means amazing (particularly with that loner on 15-501). But it’s definitely visible.
But nothing in Durham is taller than the Arthur Ravenel bridge towers at 575 ft tall. For all practical intents and purposes, they are part of the Charleston "skyline" or cityscape which is by and large much more distinctive than Durham's.

Quote:
As far as past, I’m not talking about our great-great-great-great grandparents time. Greensboro was second biggest and most important city only to Charlotte in this state for much of my grandparents’ and parents’ generations..
Second-biggest, sure (because of much annexation on its part). Second most-important? I'd say Winston-Salem was the second-most important city in NC for most of the 20th century but that's neither here nor there.

Quote:
Jacksonville doesn’t have a higher profile than Orlando because very few places do. Being the home of Mickey Mouse has its advantages on that front.
Yes, being a well-recognized hub of tourism certainly does.
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Old 01-16-2022, 10:30 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
It has more name recognition than RTP though.



But nothing in Durham is taller than the Arthur Ravenel bridge towers at 575 ft tall. For all practical intents and purposes, they are part of the Charleston "skyline" or cityscape
I think I’m garbling words here, so I’ll back up. Charleston’s draw is tourism. That’s a very broad category, one it’s in competition with on both sides (Myrtle and Savannah). It doesn’t really have a singular brand product though on par with RTP or even Duke however. As far as RTP, Raleigh is not listed here in large part because of the strength of RTP’s economic engine. Durham is following closely behind.

The Ravenel bridge is definitely a recognizable bridge. But when people are viewing skylines and connoting major cities, it’s because they are imagining the people working and living there and the many neighborhoods they support. Empty roads, no matter how dressed up as they cross water, by default can not evoke the same thoughts on this. The Golden Gate Bridge and the Brooklyn Bridge are part of their respective skylines, but not the entirety of them. To wit, no one thought Charleston was on the cusp of becoming a major city 20 years ago when the Grace was dynamited.

Last edited by Heel82; 01-16-2022 at 10:41 AM..
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Old 01-16-2022, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Richmond, VA
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Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
I think I’m garbling words here, so I’ll back up. Charleston’s draw is tourism. That’s a very broad category, one it’s in competition with on both sides (Myrtle and Savannah). It doesn’t really have a singular brand product though on par with RTP or even Duke however. As far as RTP, Raleigh is not listed here in large part because of the strength of RTP’s economic engine. Durham is following closely behind.

The Ravenel bridge is definitely a recognizable bridge. But when people are viewing skylines and connoting major cities, it’s because they are imagining the people working and living there and the many neighborhoods they support. Empty roads, no matter how dressed up as they cross water, by default can not evoke the same thoughts on this. The Golden Gate Bridge and the Brooklyn Bridge are part of their respective skylines, but not the entirety of them. To wit, no one thought Charleston was on the cusp of becoming a major city 20 years ago when the Grace was dynamited.
I'm not sure I agree. Charleston is also a major port and commercially known for logistics, especially as the port of choice for the Charlotte region. And I'm afraid that Charleston enjoys a bigger national profile than Durham has nationally. Unique luxury and premium tourism opportunities can certainly raise a city's profile over time, and that distinguishes it from Myrtle, et al. Tourism also adds to a sense of vibrancy that Durham hasn't developed. Raleigh and the RTP brand are indeed well known, but I continue to believe it will be harder for Durham to stand out from its neighbor to a wider public. Are St. Paul and Ft. Worth truly major cities? If you blindly asked Americans which city is bigger, Durham or Charleston, without having the benefit of the numbers, I hypothesize that they'd (wrongly) guess Charleston. It's name recognition. Perception is reality.

One of your metrics on "major" that you mention a couple of times is tall buildings/skyline and population. But beyond a few key cities with landmark towers, most people aren't readily able to identify one city's skyline from another, let alone municipal population. For me it's a much softer subjective question of which cities perhaps have certain traits and loom larger on the national conscious.
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Old 01-16-2022, 09:03 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
I think I’m garbling words here, so I’ll back up. Charleston’s draw is tourism. That’s a very broad category, one it’s in competition with on both sides (Myrtle and Savannah). It doesn’t really have a singular brand product though on par with RTP or even Duke however. As far as RTP, Raleigh is not listed here in large part because of the strength of RTP’s economic engine. Durham is following closely behind.
Charleston's brand product is a multifaceted experience that combines its history, geography, built environment, and local culture. The city itself is the brand.

I'd actually very much like to see Durham's history and local culture play a bigger role in its brand as time goes by. It's quite underrated in that respect and is as good as it gets for a non-touristy mountain or coastal city. As a matter of fact, I'd say its practically on par with Asheville when it comes to that.

Quote:
The Ravenel bridge is definitely a recognizable bridge. But when people are viewing skylines and connoting major cities, it’s because they are imagining the people working and living there and the many neighborhoods they support. Empty roads, no matter how dressed up as they cross water, by default can not evoke the same thoughts on this. The Golden Gate Bridge and the Brooklyn Bridge are part of their respective skylines, but not the entirety of them. To wit, no one thought Charleston was on the cusp of becoming a major city 20 years ago when the Grace was dynamited.
Of course empty roads don't convey the same importance as a skyline's tallest buildings, and the longest cable-stayed bridge in North America at the time of its construction that carries an average of nearly 100K cars daily--a decade ahead of projections--most certainly isn't that. The horrible traffic in the Charleston area is enough to attest to that whereas no one can actually tell how many highrises in a city's skyline are actually occupied or to what extent (Durham's tallest office building, University Tower, is currently 28% vacant). Big distinctive bridges are part of a city's skyline and constitute a critical portion of its infrastructure, which certainly plays a role in how a place is perceived. But I'm not actually arguing that Charleston is closer to major city status based on its skyline compared to Durham as you are for Durham compared to Charleston anyway since there's 1) no real advantage to be had for either and 2) the height restrictions in the Charleston area preclude the emergence of a traditional skyline, regardless of how large it gets. Within the I-526 loop, only the Ashley River riverfront in North Charleston has the potential to sprout something close to a traditional skyline due to relaxed height restrictions. An increasingly denser cityscape will be the most obvious indicator of Charleston's population and economic growth going forward as opposed to a cluster of tall buildings in the CBD that spread outward from there.
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