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Durham is the more historically significant city and arguably has more character and culture as well as an urban core of at least equal quality compared to its larger neighbor. And it has Duke which kind of a big deal.
I'm assuming there is a good reason its called "Raleigh-Durham" and not "Durham-Raleigh" airport.
Durham has a recognition problem. Most of the country doesn't know what "Durham" is if you don't put "Raleigh-" in front of it. Maybe that changes over time, but for now Greenville is seen as the anchor city of a metro that's not that much smaller than the Triangle.
The Triangle is about 40% larger than Greenville CSA by population, and the GDP is over 100% bigger. The gap between the two is large and getting larger. Durham is the closest thing to major city status among the cities here, regardless of what other cities it is close to. St. Paul and Fort Worth aren’t jumped in hierarchy by much smaller cities simply because Dallas and Minneapolis are nearby. That isn’t how that works.
Also Durham is not a college town. Chapel Hill is a college town.
Winston and Greensboro are larger cities in bigger metros anchoring bigger economies. There is no world where Greenville and Charleston will be considered major cities before those two in any reasonable future.
Some relevant statistics. Draw your own conclusions.
(Charleston has no CSA. Growth rates from from 2010-2020. Couldn't find CSA GDP statistics and didn't feel like doing the extra calculations with MSA and county GDP stats to get them. MSA GDP here. MSA GDP growth rates here.)
The NC cities have the advantage with municipal population of course but that's arguably the least relevant statistic here.
The Upstate also contains the smaller Spartanburg MSA and the Triad contains the smaller Burlington MSA for what it's worth.
I'm assuming there is a good reason its called "Raleigh-Durham" and not "Durham-Raleigh" airport.
Yes; Raleigh is the larger municipality. Not sure what your point is though.
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It's a college town.
You don't know what you're talking about.
Durham has 284K people in its municipal limits and 650K in the MSA. Duke has just under 7K undergrads (about 16K including grads). NC Central has 8K students total. That's not a college town; that's a small city with two decent-sized universities.
Neighboring Chapel Hill has 62K residents and UNC has a total enrollment of 32K, just over half of the population of the town itself. THAT is a college town.
I was also looking at CSA when discussing metro populations because the 2002 definitions are a hill I’m willing to die on. Regardless, I don’t think any of them will be considered major cities in the near future because I don’t think any are large enough/growing fast enough/important enough to break the barrier. I already mentioned the 3 I think that have the strongest case. But in a hypothetical of tallest midget, I do err on the side of legacy history and large city population to be more tempting targets for Americans to prop up “major city” status.
To wit, Jacksonville had a smaller MSA population than Greensboro and Birmingham in 1990, but as the 15th largest city in the country, it was deemed a major city and worthy of an NFL team. I don’t make the rules, I merely interpret them. And the tea leaves say Greenville and Charleston won’t reach major city status in any reasonable amount of time, certainly not at the expense of several others in the poll.
You are correct and I thought there always was but I probably just didn't scroll down far enough. The CSA GDP growth rates from '10-'20 are telling at 4.1% for the Upstate and 1.9% for the Triad. The Upstate's economy is growing just over twice as fast as the Triad's, and Spartanburg is only in the beginning phases of its boom.
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I was also looking at CSA when discussing metro populations because the 2002 definitions are a hill I’m willing to die on. Regardless, I don’t think any of them will be considered major cities in the near future because I don’t think any are large enough/growing fast enough/important enough to break the barrier. I already mentioned the 3 I think that have the strongest case. But in a hypothetical of tallest midget, I do err on the side of legacy history and large city population to be more tempting targets for Americans to prop up “major city” status.
To wit, Jacksonville had a smaller MSA population than Greensboro and Birmingham in 1990, but as the 15th largest city in the country, it was deemed a major city and worthy of an NFL team. I don’t make the rules, I merely interpret them. And the tea leaves say Greenville and Charleston won’t reach major city status in any reasonable amount of time, certainly not at the expense of several others in the poll.
While anything can happen, I think the momentum of the Upstate and greater Charleston give them the advantage over the Triad for the foreseeable future and positions them a bit closer to major city status. It's tough being the legacy region in a state where two powerhouses are taking up all the oxygen and the ports aren't as competitive as neighboring ones. The Triad won't languish or anything and can still distinguish itself in some key respects, but outside of a natural disaster (a real concern for the Lowcountry specifically), I'm pretty much expecting trends to hold.
Charleston’s GDP and population is half that of the Triad. Greenville’s GDP growing twice as fast puts it on course to pass the Triad in what decade? None of these are on pace to be “major” any time soon, but even if Charleston and Upstate are going faster, they are further back. As of this moment, the triad cities are closer to “major” status. They might not be there in 20 years (well, I think they will up against Charleston), but I think that takes “reasonable time frame” beyond it’s limits.
All that said, Durham is still the correct answer in my eyes though the legacy/isolation nature makes Richmond compelling. Add Norfolk as your wildcard, and I think those are the only 3 that have a chance at major status in the foreseeable future (next decade or so).
Maybe I'm just a pessimist but I don't see the Triad cities moving the needle much in the next 150-196 years.
Richmond metro has the most landmass to expand into of all the cities listed though -- being the most isolated (if you rule out smaller cities like Williamsburg and Petersburg), however us country boys would push back on that.
Richmond metro has the most landmass to expand into of all the cities listed though -- being the most isolated (if you rule out smaller cities like Williamsburg and Petersburg), however us country boys would push back on that.
What expansion there is has been/will likely continue to be gradual but at some point the country boys sell out too. Thinking of Hanover....30 years ago it was as rural as anywhere in the country. Now it looks like a regular suburb (or at least Mechanicsville - Atlee area). Little azz Mechanicsville got a Bonchon before Chicago even.
Norfolk is a small city with alpha city infrastructure. If you squint, it looks like a major city (if you squint in Columbus or Indianapolis, you still see a provincial town. To quote Men on Film, “hated it”).
What I consider “major” may not be what others consider to be major.
Population doesn’t make a place major. There are a thousand cities around the world that have twice the population of these cities listed. If a city is only known because of its sports team (I’m looking at you Indianapolis), it isn’t major either.
I personally judge a city’s importance by its infrastructure, natural setting (it has to feel like a special place), its cultural institutions, its creative class, economic output, role in shaping the government/law/national economy…
It’s a moot point though. None of these cities are major (and neither is Nashville, Austin or Las Vegas..other cities mentioned). Every town and city is growing. When Raleigh grows to 3 million, Atlanta will be at 7 million. It’s all relative. The major cities will continue to make these cities look small by comparison. The “major” bar keep being raised.
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